719
FXUS65 KABQ 270839
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
239 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 235 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
- MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
WEEK WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW
STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, MAINLY FROM
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
- DRIER STORMS WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL AND ERRATIC DOWNBURST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHED THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN LAST EVENING, THOUGH THE GAP WINDS HAVE SINCE ENDED. MUCH OF
THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
PRESENT THAT VIRGA WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN
NM AND WILL BE NUDGED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD TODAY, LIMITING THE SHEAR. THE WEAK
UPSLOPE ONTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL ALLOW STORMS TO FORM
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW
AND ERRATIC. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL GUIDE WHERE MOST STORMS MOVE,
THOUGH A GENERAL EAST OR SOUTHEAST DRIFT IS MOST LIKELY. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR A STORM OR TWO TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, BUT
THE LIMITED SHEAR (<25KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR) WILL KEEP THESE STORMS
BRIEF AND/OR NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY. MAIN CONCERN IS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON THE HPCC BURN SCAR WHICH HAS RECEIVED TWO
DAYS IN A ROW OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL AND WET SOILS.
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OR MOVE INTO TEXAS BEFORE THE
MIDNIGHT HOUR. A BRIEF GAP WIND FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY OCCUR
THIS EVENING DUE TO OUTFLOWS FROM THE STORMS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
STORM COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL TREND UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SEVERE STORMS LIKELY. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO MORE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
STEEPEN, ALLOWING FOR 1000-1500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE ACROSS
THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE AS AN UPPER
LEVEL JET UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTS NORTHWARD OVER NM
DURING THE DAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30KT WILL BE PRESENT
ALLOWING FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS THAN TODAY. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL BE FAVORED FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, HOWEVER, A SECONDARY AREA WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST NM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
PLUNGES INTO THE STATE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
EVENING CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH A
MOIST BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WORKS TO HAMPER THESE CHANCES AS WE MOVE
LATER INTO THE NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THIS FRONT, WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST ROBUST. IN TURN, IT ALSO
BRINGS THE STRONGEST EAST CANYON WIND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE WITH THIS SOLUTION, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS FAVORS A WEAKER FRONT. MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS A WEAKER (BUT STILL MOIST) FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST
NM WEDNESDAY EVENING, PROVIDING A STABLE AIR MASS AND HAMPERING
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ABLE TO INITIATE ON
THE FRONT ITSELF, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THUNDER-ABSENT SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT, IF ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. A BREEZY
TO TEMPORARILY GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND IS LIKELY AS WELL, AND MAY BE
ENHANCED BY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSHING THROUGH THE GAPS OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL. THE MOIST AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES
INTO EASTERN NM INTO THURSDAY, MODIFYING AND BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF AFTERNOON TO EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ARE POSSIBLE, WITH AN ISOLATED
STRONGER STORM OR TWO. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION LIES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, WHERE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE CIRCLING A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WORKS TO DRIVE SOME ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION OVER THIS REGION. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO HAVE AN ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT TO THEM, WHICH
COULD AID IN ANY STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING DUE TO INCREASED
FORCING. THIS ADDITIONAL LIFTING COMPONENT ALSO SHOULD WORK TO
OVERCOME A LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS, LEFT BY THE
BACKDOOR FRONT. THE HPCC BURN SCAR COULD SEE AN INCREASED RISK OF
FLOODING AS WELL WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT.
INITIALLY, A WEAK RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO STICK AROUND, AND THE TREND OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE. GOING INTO SUNDAY, A CLOSED
LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA BEGINS TO PUSH INLAND, ALLOWING THE
MOISTURE TO MIX OUT OF EASTERN NM AND BRINGING HEIGHTENED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN NM. ADDITIONALLY, UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AS THE LOW APPROACHES, WHICH MAY
RETURN SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THERE REMAIN SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITHIN MODEL RUNS, MAINLY IF
THE LOW BECOMES ABSORBED INTO AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH OR
REMAINS SEPARATED FROM IT, THE FORMER BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. REGARDLESS, A PATTERN SHIFT IS FAVORED LATE
WEEKEND. CPC 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK QUANTIFIES THE THINKING
WELL, WITH CHANCES FOR ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION HIGHER FOR
WESTERN NM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2025
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE EVENING. WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FILL IN
ACROSS NORTHEAST NM. LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS. THIS INCLUDES IMPACTS AT KLVS, KTCC
AND KROW. LOW CIGS WILL ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING,
WITH MOST ERODED BY 18Z. SHORTLY THEREAFTER, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NM AS WELL. SLOW
AND ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS WILL BE THE RULE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ARE LIKELY. VIRGA WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NM AS WELL. STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CIGS WILL
RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A TALE OF TWO HALVES THIS WEEK. EASTERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOSHES DIURNALLY BACK AND FORTH. STORM MOTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE
TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MEANWHILE WESTERN
NM WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY, BUT WITH VIRGA SHOWERS RESULTING IN
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
LESS THAN 15% EACH AFTERNOON WITH POOR TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
EACH NIGHT. ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BETTER MOISTURE AS WELL AS
ACROSS WESTERN NM, ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE A CONCERN,
ESPECIALLY WED THROUGH FRI. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE CUT OFF LOW WEST
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA STARTS TO EJECT OUT, BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY REACH WESTERN NM BY THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD WETTING STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 84 50 86 51 / 0 5 5 0
DULCE........................... 80 39 81 38 / 10 20 30 10
CUBA............................ 77 46 80 47 / 10 10 20 10
GALLUP.......................... 82 40 84 42 / 10 5 10 5
EL MORRO........................ 77 45 80 47 / 20 20 20 5
GRANTS.......................... 82 40 83 43 / 10 10 20 5
QUEMADO......................... 80 45 82 47 / 20 10 10 0
MAGDALENA....................... 79 51 80 53 / 10 10 20 10
DATIL........................... 77 46 80 49 / 20 10 20 5
RESERVE......................... 85 41 87 43 / 20 5 10 0
GLENWOOD........................ 87 45 90 49 / 5 0 10 0
CHAMA........................... 72 39 74 39 / 20 20 40 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 75 53 77 52 / 20 10 30 10
PECOS........................... 71 48 77 48 / 30 10 30 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 72 46 74 44 / 10 10 40 20
RED RIVER....................... 62 37 64 38 / 20 20 50 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 65 34 69 35 / 20 10 40 20
TAOS............................ 75 41 77 41 / 10 10 30 10
MORA............................ 69 42 74 42 / 40 10 40 20
ESPANOLA........................ 82 50 84 49 / 10 10 20 10
SANTA FE........................ 75 50 79 51 / 20 10 30 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 78 47 82 50 / 20 10 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 83 57 84 59 / 10 10 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 84 58 86 56 / 5 10 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 86 55 89 55 / 5 10 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 84 56 87 57 / 5 10 10 10
BELEN........................... 87 51 89 52 / 5 10 10 10
BERNALILLO...................... 86 55 88 55 / 5 10 10 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 87 50 89 51 / 5 10 10 10
CORRALES........................ 86 56 89 56 / 5 10 10 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 87 52 89 53 / 5 10 10 10
PLACITAS........................ 81 55 83 57 / 10 10 20 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 85 56 87 56 / 5 10 10 10
SOCORRO......................... 90 56 91 56 / 5 5 20 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 76 50 79 51 / 10 10 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 79 51 81 52 / 10 10 20 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 78 47 81 48 / 10 10 20 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 79 44 82 44 / 20 10 20 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 72 46 76 46 / 20 30 30 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 79 47 81 48 / 10 10 20 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 79 48 81 48 / 20 20 30 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 84 54 84 54 / 20 10 30 20
RUIDOSO......................... 74 49 77 50 / 30 10 40 20
CAPULIN......................... 70 45 71 44 / 20 20 50 40
RATON........................... 75 45 76 45 / 20 10 40 20
SPRINGER........................ 75 46 78 47 / 20 10 30 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 70 44 76 46 / 20 20 40 20
CLAYTON......................... 74 52 74 50 / 20 10 40 50
ROY............................. 71 48 75 48 / 20 10 30 30
CONCHAS......................... 77 53 84 53 / 20 10 30 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 75 53 81 51 / 20 20 30 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 75 55 82 53 / 20 10 30 40
CLOVIS.......................... 76 55 82 55 / 20 20 30 40
PORTALES........................ 77 54 83 54 / 20 30 30 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 79 54 83 53 / 20 20 30 20
ROSWELL......................... 84 59 87 61 / 20 20 30 20
PICACHO......................... 80 53 83 53 / 40 20 40 20
ELK............................. 81 49 82 50 / 40 10 50 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...34
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