592
FXUS65 KABQ 281129 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
529 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 519 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
- DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING TO THE WHOLE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- A FEW DRY STORMS WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL AND ERRATIC
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY OVER
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THESE STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO START NEW FIRES.
- THERE IS A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER RECENT BURN SCARS
AND IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN NM TODAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN NM HAS AGAIN SQUEEZED THROUGH THE GAPS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD QUICKLY MIX
OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO DWINDLE
FOR TODAY AS MODELS SHOW LIMITED SHEAR ONCE AGAIN (<25KT 0-6KKM
BULK SHEAR) AND SURFACE MOISTURE MIXING OUT SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. PER MAINLY CAM OUTPUT, A BROKEN LINE OF MEAGER STORMS
WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW STORMS WILL
ORGANIZE AND WILL BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE, BUT OVERALL,
MOST WILL STRUGGLE. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
ALONG A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST NM. THOUGH THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PRESS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING, SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS
MAINLY ACROSS COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL QUICKLY PRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED BELOW CANYONS IN THE ABQ METRO AND
AROUND 30 MPH AROUND SANTA FE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AGAIN
RETURN AS FAR WEST AS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, BUT ALSO ONCE AGAIN,
MOST OF THIS MOISTURE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL MIX
OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY,
THOUGH THE H5 RIDGE STRENGTHENS AROUND 3 DAM. THIS WILL HELP
SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BEFORE SLIDING EAST OR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE FAVORED AREA FOR SEVERE
STORMS APPEARS TO BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NM WHERE A WEAK
VORT MAX SLIDES OVER THE AREA. VIRGA WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP BETWEEN THE CONTDVD AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES FROM
YESTERDAY. TONIGHT'S FRONT WILL DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN NM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ACROSS
EASTERN NM WILL BE UP TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ELSEWHERE, TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
STORMS THAT DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING. THEN ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE CUT OFF LOW JUST
WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. AT THIS POINT, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT
WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THUS, MORE OF
THE SAME IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD. AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR VIRGA SHOWERS, GUSTY WINDS AND
PERHAPS A DRY STORM OR TWO. H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE, SO
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM, WHILE TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOLLOWING THE FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN NM. A SIMILAR SCENARIO AGAIN IN STORE FOR SATURDAY,
THOUGH A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST
FLOW MAY ALSO BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM, BUT MODELS DIFFERENCES ARE CONSIDERABLE HERE.
FINALLY BY SUNDAY, INCREASED PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN NM,
PERHAPS ENHANCED BY TROPICAL REMNANTS, WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
COVERAGE OF WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORM COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE BAJA
LOW TURNED OPEN WAVE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHWEST NM. AS IT LOOKS NOW,
A NICE WETTING RAIN WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES, DRIER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
TRANSIENT LOW CLOUDS (LIFR CIGS) AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST NM AROUND KCAO. EXPECT THIS TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE, ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON, A
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN, THOUGH WITH TIME, SOME STORMS WILL BECOME DOMINANT
AS THEY SHIFT EASTWARD. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. A FEW
STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST NM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY
PRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BY 09Z THU, THE FRONT
WILL PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WITH EASTERLY WINDS IMPACTING KABQ AND KSAF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
WESTERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY TODAY, THURSDAY AND TO
SOME EXTENT FRIDAY. BETWEEN 5 AND 8 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MIN RH ON FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN NM WILL BE
AROUND 10 PERCENT. VIRGA SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON, THOUGH HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FRIDAY WHEN A FEW
DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. MEANWHILE, DAILY
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN
NM, WITH SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. OVER THE WEEKEND, BETTER MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR WETTING
RAINFALL WILL RETURN TO WESTERN NM. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST NM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. THEREAFTER, DRIER
AND WINDIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TUES AND WED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 88 49 88 52 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 82 39 83 41 / 10 0 10 5
CUBA............................ 81 47 82 48 / 5 0 10 10
GALLUP.......................... 85 38 86 40 / 5 0 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 80 44 81 45 / 5 0 10 5
GRANTS.......................... 84 41 86 44 / 5 0 10 5
QUEMADO......................... 82 44 84 47 / 0 0 10 5
MAGDALENA....................... 81 54 83 53 / 10 5 10 10
DATIL........................... 80 47 82 48 / 5 0 10 5
RESERVE......................... 86 44 88 46 / 0 0 5 5
GLENWOOD........................ 89 50 91 51 / 0 0 5 5
CHAMA........................... 75 40 77 41 / 20 5 20 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 78 53 76 52 / 10 5 20 10
PECOS........................... 77 47 76 50 / 10 0 30 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 74 43 75 45 / 20 10 40 10
RED RIVER....................... 65 37 65 39 / 30 20 50 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 70 35 69 35 / 20 10 40 20
TAOS............................ 78 41 77 43 / 10 10 30 10
MORA............................ 75 42 72 44 / 20 5 40 30
ESPANOLA........................ 84 50 85 51 / 5 5 20 10
SANTA FE........................ 80 51 79 52 / 10 5 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 83 50 82 53 / 5 0 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 86 58 86 59 / 5 5 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 87 60 87 61 / 5 0 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 89 56 89 58 / 5 0 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 88 56 87 58 / 5 0 10 10
BELEN........................... 89 52 91 55 / 0 5 10 10
BERNALILLO...................... 89 56 89 57 / 5 0 10 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 89 52 90 54 / 5 0 10 10
CORRALES........................ 89 56 89 57 / 5 0 10 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 89 53 90 55 / 5 0 10 10
PLACITAS........................ 84 56 85 57 / 0 5 10 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 88 56 89 58 / 0 0 10 10
SOCORRO......................... 91 57 93 59 / 0 0 10 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 80 49 80 52 / 5 5 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 82 51 83 53 / 5 0 20 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 82 48 82 51 / 5 0 20 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 83 46 83 48 / 5 0 20 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 79 46 75 49 / 10 0 20 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 82 48 83 50 / 10 0 20 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 81 48 83 50 / 10 0 20 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 84 55 86 56 / 10 0 30 20
RUIDOSO......................... 75 52 77 53 / 20 0 30 20
CAPULIN......................... 77 43 65 44 / 40 40 40 40
RATON........................... 80 45 70 46 / 30 30 50 30
SPRINGER........................ 81 46 71 48 / 20 20 30 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 78 45 72 47 / 10 5 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 80 48 67 50 / 40 50 10 30
ROY............................. 77 48 68 49 / 30 20 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 86 53 74 55 / 20 10 10 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 82 52 74 54 / 20 5 10 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 84 53 73 54 / 20 20 5 20
CLOVIS.......................... 83 54 76 55 / 20 20 10 30
PORTALES........................ 84 54 76 54 / 20 10 20 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 85 54 78 55 / 30 10 10 30
ROSWELL......................... 89 61 86 61 / 20 5 20 30
PICACHO......................... 84 54 82 56 / 30 0 30 20
ELK............................. 83 52 83 54 / 20 5 40 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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