824
FXUS65 KABQ 282137
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
337 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 336 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
- DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING TO THE WHOLE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- A FEW DRY STORMS WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL AND ERRATIC
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY OVER
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THESE STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO START NEW FIRES.
- THERE IS A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER RECENT BURN SCARS
AND IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO, AND AS STORMS MOVE EAST INTO COLFAX AND UNION COUNTY
THEY ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO MORE FAVORABLE BULK LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE
TO GROW STRONGER AND POSSIBLY BECOME SEVERE. ACCORDING TO MODEL
SOUNDINGS, AREAS SOUTH OF HARDING COUNTY SEEM LACK THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR STORMS TO REMAIN STRONG, WITH BULK SHEAR LESS THAN
25 KTS AND CAPE LESS THAN 800 J/KG. ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEW MEXICO, ENOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND VIRGA SHOWERS COMING OFF
OF THE HIGH TERRAIN, BUT DRIER CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE HAS
HINDERED CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART. STORMS IN NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 9 PM, WHICH IS WHEN A MOIST
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT
WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE,
RAISING DEWPOINTS BACK UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S ALONG THE TEXAS-
NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CLOUDS FOR NORTHEASTERN AREAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE AREAS FOR VISIBILITIES DROPPING DUE TO FOG WILL BE IN
UNION COUNTY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CRACKS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND INTO THE ABQ METRO DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BRING A BREEZY EAST CANYON GAP WIND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE METRO.
THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OFF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
STRENGTHENING IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE THERE IS GREATER INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR. MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN FAVORING FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AS HOT SPOTS FOR STRONG STORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH
THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ONCE AGAIN DURING THE EVENING,
BRINGING SOME STRONGER EAST GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH FOR THE ABQ METRO.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE
THIS WEEK, BUT THE SYSTEM ITSELF DOESNT LOOK LIKE IT WILL ENTER OUR
REGION UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE, MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN GIVE RISE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT YET ON
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, BUT IT SEEMS LIKE GREATER MOISTURE
COULD PUSH FARTHER WEST AS MODELS HINT AT PWATS NEAR ONE INCH. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON THE STRENGTH STORMS AND AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL, THE HIGHER PWATS WOULD INDICATE HIGHER THREAT OF BURN SCAR
FLASH FLOODING ON FOR THIS WEEKEND.
ONCE THE UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO NEW MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK, IT LOOKS
TO BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF RAINFALL, PARTICULARLY FOR WESTERN
NEW MEXICO THAT HAS REMAINED MOSTLY DRY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
PWATS LOOK TO CLAM TO 0.75 OVER WESTERN AREAS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR
A PRETTY RAINY MONDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
THE SYSTEM PASSES, WESTERLY WINDS ALSO LOOK TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS, THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND KEEP STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
THE LOW CLOUDS IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO FROM THIS MORNING HAVE
DISSIPATED. VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH FEW
TO SCATTERED UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. CONFIDENCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO DIMINISH, BUT
SOME CONVECTION SEEMS TO ALREADY BE FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND WILL LOOK TO PUSH EAST INTO THE EVENING. KTCC COULD
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH STRONG GUSTS
AND HAIL POSSIBLE. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THIS EVENING AND LOOKS TO REACH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM A NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFT, CEILINGS MAY FALL TO IFR AT KLVS AND MVFR AT KSAF AND KTCC
AT AROUND SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES DROPPING AT THESE
SITES IS LOW, BUT NORTHEASTERN AREAS SUCH AS KCAO MAY ONCE AGAIN
SEE LOW CLOUDS DROP VISIBILITIES DURING THE MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN
NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WESTERLY FLOW KEEPS
CONDITIONS DRY. MIN RH ON FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN NM WILL BE AROUND 10
PERCENT. VIRGA SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AS STORMS FORM OFF OF THE HIGH TERRAIN, THOUGH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS SATURDAY WHEN A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. MEANWHILE, DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN NM, WITH SOME SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVER THE WEEKEND,
BETTER MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL RETURN TO
WESTERN NM. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST NM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. THEREAFTER, DRIER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 50 89 53 89 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 39 83 40 85 / 5 10 5 30
CUBA............................ 47 82 47 83 / 5 10 10 20
GALLUP.......................... 42 85 44 87 / 0 5 0 10
EL MORRO........................ 47 81 49 82 / 0 10 5 20
GRANTS.......................... 43 86 46 85 / 0 10 5 20
QUEMADO......................... 47 84 49 84 / 0 5 5 20
MAGDALENA....................... 55 84 52 84 / 10 20 10 30
DATIL........................... 50 83 49 83 / 5 10 10 20
RESERVE......................... 45 89 46 90 / 0 5 0 20
GLENWOOD........................ 50 93 51 94 / 0 0 0 20
CHAMA........................... 40 76 41 77 / 10 20 5 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 53 79 53 79 / 10 20 20 30
PECOS........................... 45 75 50 79 / 5 30 30 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 45 76 45 78 / 10 40 10 30
RED RIVER....................... 36 64 38 69 / 20 50 20 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 35 71 36 71 / 10 40 20 40
TAOS............................ 40 79 43 80 / 10 30 10 30
MORA............................ 40 71 44 77 / 5 40 20 50
ESPANOLA........................ 49 86 51 87 / 10 20 10 30
SANTA FE........................ 51 81 52 82 / 5 20 20 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 50 84 53 84 / 5 20 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 58 88 59 88 / 5 10 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 56 89 58 89 / 5 10 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 54 91 58 92 / 0 10 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 57 90 59 90 / 5 10 10 10
BELEN........................... 51 91 54 92 / 5 5 10 20
BERNALILLO...................... 55 91 57 91 / 0 10 10 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 50 91 54 91 / 5 10 10 20
CORRALES........................ 55 91 57 92 / 5 10 10 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 52 91 56 91 / 5 5 10 10
PLACITAS........................ 57 86 57 87 / 5 10 20 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 55 90 58 90 / 5 10 10 10
SOCORRO......................... 58 94 58 94 / 5 10 10 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 48 81 52 82 / 5 20 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 51 83 54 84 / 5 20 20 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 45 82 51 84 / 5 20 20 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 43 82 49 85 / 5 20 20 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 43 74 49 78 / 5 20 20 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 45 82 51 84 / 5 20 20 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 45 81 49 84 / 5 20 20 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 55 88 56 87 / 0 20 20 40
RUIDOSO......................... 50 77 51 79 / 0 30 20 50
CAPULIN......................... 41 62 44 74 / 40 50 30 20
RATON........................... 43 70 46 79 / 30 60 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 44 70 47 79 / 30 50 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 43 72 48 76 / 5 30 30 40
CLAYTON......................... 47 64 49 79 / 40 20 20 10
ROY............................. 45 67 49 77 / 30 30 30 30
CONCHAS......................... 52 74 56 83 / 20 10 30 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 50 74 54 80 / 5 10 30 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 52 71 55 81 / 30 5 30 10
CLOVIS.......................... 54 75 56 79 / 10 10 30 10
PORTALES........................ 53 77 56 80 / 10 20 30 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 53 79 56 82 / 5 10 30 20
ROSWELL......................... 60 89 63 83 / 0 20 30 20
PICACHO......................... 52 82 57 82 / 0 30 20 40
ELK............................. 52 83 54 83 / 5 30 20 40
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25
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