543
FXUS65 KABQ 290842
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
242 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 239 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
- DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING TO THE WHOLE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TODAY.
- A FEW DRY STORMS WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL AND ERRATIC
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY OVER
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THESE STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO START NEW FIRES.
- THERE IS A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER RECENT BURN SCARS
AND IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST THIS MORNING BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AS
IT PRESSES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING, RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN ABQ, WITH SLIGHTLY
LESSER GUSTS AROUND SANTA FE. THE EAST WINDS WILL BRING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BACK TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS
THE CONTDVD, BUT THIS MOISTURE WILL MIX BACK OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS, MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING TWO MAIN
FOCUS AREAS FOR CONVECTION. THE FIRST IS NEAR AND EAST OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER, INCLUDING CHAVES AND
ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS IN THIS AREA
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG AND BETWEEN 25 AND
35KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALSO EXISTS. THUS, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE LIKELY. THE LATEST CAMS ALSO HINT AT A STORM OR TWO
DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF THIS AREA WITHIN TORRANCE AND GUADALUPE
COUNTIES. THE SECOND FOCUS AREA WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM
WHERE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT AT SHOWING A CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING FROM NW TO SE INITIALLY ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF UNION AND HARDING COUNTIES. THIS CLUSTER MAY HOLD
TOGETHER THROUGH THE EVENING AND IMPACT TUCUMCARI AS WELL. SEVERE
WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS SECOND AREA. THOUGH CAPE VALUES
ARE NOT AS HIGH, GREATER SHEAR EXISTS AND THE AREA WILL BE IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
OVER THE MIDWEST. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT MODELS ARE QUITE
GENEROUS WITH QPF WITH THIS CLUSTER, SUGGESTING BETWEEN ONE HALF AND
ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. 90TH PERCENTILE HREF PROBABILITIES SHOW AS
MUCH AS 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN. SINCE THESE AREAS (ESPECIALLY UNION
COUNTY) HAD HEAVY RAINFALL (AND HAIL) YESTERDAY, THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING AS WELL AS RISING CREEKS,
RIVERS AND STREAMS.
TONIGHT, THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AGAIN SLOSH BACK TOWARD THE
WEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM AS WELL AS SOME AREAS OF
FOG. EAST CANYON WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EVEN STRONGER, WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH AROUND THE ABQ METRO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REACH AS
FAR WEST AS THE AZ BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. THOUGH A LOT OF THIS
MOISTURE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL MIX OUT, IT WON'T
BE AS DRY AS PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS WESTERN NM (IN TERMS OF RH). PLUS,
ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE LOW THAT VIRGA,
GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR. MEANWHILE
ACROSS EASTERN NM, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS FORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE SAME STORY FOR
THESE STORMS AS MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW RIDES UP THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN TO INDUCE PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING JUST OFF
THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WORKS TO SUCTION SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTWARD, ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN. INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NM, LOW LEVELS STILL
REMAIN DRY, WITH ANY DEVELOPING STORMS LIKELY REMAINING DRY WITH
LITTLE WETTING FOOTPRINTS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. STORM MOTIONS OF
ANY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LIKELY TO BE SLOW, WITH MEAN
700-500MB WINDS (A GOOD INDICATOR OF MEAN STORM MOTION) LIKELY
REMAINING UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLOW STORM
MOTION AND INCREASED MOISTURE STILL REMAINING IN THE AREA, BURN SCAR
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THOUGH WITH ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW BARRELS ITS WAY INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY, BRINGING QUITE THE
UPTICK IN MOISTURE TO WESTERN NM. NAEFS PERCENTILES PLACES 99TH
PERCENTILE PWAT VALUES OVER THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY. AS SUCH, MUCH OF WESTERN NM SHOULD SEE VERY
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL, GIVEN SUBTLE
INSTABILITY. AS THIS LOW PASSES, HEIGHTENED MID-LEVEL WINDS RETURN
ACROSS THE REGION, AKIN TO THE PATTERN WE ROUTINELY SEE IN THE WINDY
SEASON. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LOWER CHANCES AND CONFIDENCE EACH CONSECUTIVE
AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS
(>40MPH) IS THE FACT THAT THE SURFACE MIXED LAYER IS FORECAST TO
ONLY EXTEND UP TO ROUGHLY ~7000FT AGL ACROSS EASTERN NM, WHICH IS
WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY JUNE. THUS, THOSE MID-LEVEL WINDS WOULD
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MIXING TO THE SURFACE. AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVES OVER WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FALL BELOW 20% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, OUTSIDE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS
LATE THIS EVENING. AROUND 09Z, IT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WEST
THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH GUSTS AROUND
30KT AT KABQ. A FEW HOURS LATER, THE STRONGER GUSTS WILL REACH
KSAF. LOW CIGS WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL NM OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IS MVFR CIGS FOR KTCC AND
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT KLVS. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN FOCUS AREAS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM, POTENTIALLY SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD KTCC IN THE AFTN/EVE, AND AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, TO INCLUDE KROW THIS AFTN.
LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS, A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 50KT. ALL STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT, THEN LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF
EASTERN NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
STARK DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN WESTERN AND EASTERN NM TODAY, BUT
THESE DIFFERENCES WILL BECOME LESS APPARENT FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR TODAY, UP TO 10 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT RH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NM. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MOISTURE SLOSHES BACK TO THE WEST TONIGHT. GUSTY
CANYON WINDS ALSO RETURN IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ON FRIDAY, RH
VALUES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW FOR MOST AREAS ACROSS THE WEST, BUT
MINIMUMS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON. INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR VIRGA WITH GUSTY
WINDS AS PERHAPS A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THIS CAUSES
CONCERN FOR NEW FIRE STARTS GIVEN 97TH PERCENTILE ERC'S ACROSS ZONES
109 AND 106. MEANWHILE, MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR EASTERN NM.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, INCREASING WETTING RAIN CHANCES. AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA WILL FINALLY EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY, AND COULD
BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW CROSSING THE AREA TUES AND WED, SO IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BE TRENDING DRIER AND WINDIER AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 89 53 89 56 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 83 41 84 41 / 5 0 30 10
CUBA............................ 83 47 82 50 / 5 0 20 20
GALLUP.......................... 86 41 88 46 / 0 0 10 5
EL MORRO........................ 82 45 82 51 / 0 0 20 5
GRANTS.......................... 86 44 85 48 / 0 0 10 5
QUEMADO......................... 83 46 84 51 / 0 0 10 5
MAGDALENA....................... 84 52 84 56 / 5 0 20 20
DATIL........................... 83 47 82 53 / 0 0 20 10
RESERVE......................... 87 47 89 49 / 0 0 10 10
GLENWOOD........................ 90 52 91 53 / 0 0 20 20
CHAMA........................... 76 40 76 42 / 10 5 40 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 78 52 78 55 / 10 5 30 20
PECOS........................... 76 49 78 51 / 20 10 40 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 75 44 77 47 / 30 10 30 10
RED RIVER....................... 65 38 68 41 / 40 20 40 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 69 35 70 37 / 30 20 40 20
TAOS............................ 78 44 80 45 / 20 10 30 20
MORA............................ 72 44 75 46 / 30 20 50 20
ESPANOLA........................ 86 51 86 53 / 10 5 30 20
SANTA FE........................ 81 50 80 55 / 10 10 30 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 84 51 83 54 / 10 5 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 87 59 87 62 / 5 5 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 89 60 88 59 / 0 5 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 90 58 90 58 / 0 5 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 89 57 88 60 / 0 5 10 20
BELEN........................... 90 55 91 55 / 10 5 10 20
BERNALILLO...................... 90 57 90 59 / 0 0 10 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 90 55 90 54 / 5 5 10 20
CORRALES........................ 90 57 89 59 / 0 5 10 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 90 56 90 56 / 5 5 10 20
PLACITAS........................ 86 56 86 60 / 5 5 20 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 89 57 89 60 / 0 0 10 20
SOCORRO......................... 93 58 92 61 / 5 0 20 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 81 52 81 54 / 5 10 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 83 53 83 55 / 5 10 20 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 82 51 83 50 / 10 5 20 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 83 49 84 47 / 10 10 30 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 74 49 78 50 / 10 10 30 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 82 51 83 50 / 20 5 20 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 81 50 83 50 / 10 10 30 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 87 56 86 57 / 20 10 40 30
RUIDOSO......................... 77 51 77 53 / 30 10 50 30
CAPULIN......................... 64 45 75 47 / 60 40 20 10
RATON........................... 70 46 80 47 / 70 40 20 10
SPRINGER........................ 72 46 79 48 / 50 40 20 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 73 47 76 48 / 20 20 40 30
CLAYTON......................... 65 49 79 53 / 20 30 10 5
ROY............................. 69 48 76 50 / 20 30 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 76 55 82 56 / 5 30 20 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 77 55 80 54 / 10 20 20 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 74 55 80 56 / 5 30 5 20
CLOVIS.......................... 77 55 77 58 / 20 40 5 20
PORTALES........................ 78 54 79 56 / 20 30 5 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 80 56 82 56 / 20 20 20 30
ROSWELL......................... 87 61 82 63 / 30 20 20 20
PICACHO......................... 82 57 80 55 / 40 10 40 30
ELK............................. 84 53 79 53 / 50 20 50 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...34
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