482
FXUS65 KABQ 301759 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1159 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1142 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR EASTERN NEW
MEXICO TODAY, WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING TO THE WHOLE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TODAY.
- A FEW DRY STORMS WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL AND ERRATIC
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO START
NEW FIRES.
- THERE IS A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER RECENT BURN SCARS
AND IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM OVERNIGHT.
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED INCLUDING AROUND LAS VEGAS
AND RUIDOSO, BUT FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY OVERALL THROUGH SUNRISE.
ADDITIONALLY, EASTERLY GAP WINDS IN ABQ AND SANTA FE SHOULD DECREASE
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. PEAK WINDS AT ABQ SO FAR HAS BEEN 42KT/48MPH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND WEST
OF RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL MOSTLY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON, MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED
WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. BUT GIVEN THE DRIER LOW LEVELS, MOST
STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NM WILL PRODUCE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL, BUT
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. MEANWHILE ACROSS EASTERN NM,
LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS, STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODEST CAPE (500-
1000J/KG) AND 20-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN. THOUGH STORMS ACROSS
WESTERN NM SHOULD DIMINISH BY OR AROUND SUNSET, SOME STORMS ACROSS
EASTERN NM WILL PERSIST UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOSH BACK TOWARD THE WEST TONIGHT, ALLOWING
FOR ANOTHER GAP WIND TO DEVELOP AT ABQ AND SANTA FE, THOUGH THE GAP
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THIS MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 25 OR 30
MPH ARE MORE LIKELY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY,
WITH A FEW NOTABLE CHANGES. WESTERN NM WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF WET
AND DRY STORMS, WITH THE 'WETTER' STORMS FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE, THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN
NM TREND DOWNWARD DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH. IT
SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THOUGH A FEW STORMS WILL BE AROUND THE
BURN SCARS IN LINCOLN COUNTY TODAY, CAMS ARE SHOWING A MUCH BETTER
SIGNAL FOR STORMS OVER THE BURN SCARS ON SATURDAY. REPEATED ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS DAY AFTER DAY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
WEAK RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA AND NORTHERN BAJA
CA. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND 0.6 TO 0.8 INCHES
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM AND 0.8 TO 0.9 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN
NM WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING DOWN TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS DURING THE EVENING. THESE PWATS ARE AROUND THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JUNE BASED ON SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AT KABQ,
SO STORMS WILL BE WETTER IN NATURE AS A RESULT. THE HPCC AND RUIDOSO
BURN SCARS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
DUE TO POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES BEFORE
STORMS SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OFF THE SCARS DURING THE EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA FINALLY PIVOTS EAST INTO ARIZONA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING DUE TO ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH
AND CLOSING OFF INTO A 2ND LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE FIRST LOW WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM MONDAY
MORNING. AS IT PICK UP SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ALLEN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WOULD BE MUCH NEEDED
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PART OF THE STATE DUE TO THE FACT THAT THEY
ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT DUE TO VERY
DRY LAST FEW MONTHS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE
STATE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE STATE AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP WHILE MOVING OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE HIGHER STORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
THE HPCC BURN SCAR AND RUIDOSO BURN SCARS, BUT ONE SAVING GRACE IS
THAT STORM MOTION WILL BE QUICKER TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 25 TO
35 MPH DUE TO STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD
COVER AND STORM COVERAGE, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM AND AROUND NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN
NM. SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING THANKS TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE OPEN TROUGH EXITING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS. A BACKDOOR FRONT LOOKS TO ENTER NORTHEAST NM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INCREASING OVERALL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PART OF THE STATE
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 2ND UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA SLOWLY
MOVING INTO ARIZONA. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
DIURNAL CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40
WITH PWATS REMAINING AROUND 0.5 TO 0.8 INCHES. THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF THIS UPPER LOW/OPENING TROUGH
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF MOVING IT INTO WESTERN NM TUESDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT, WHILE THE 00Z GFS MOVES THE FEATURE THROUGH THE STATE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE CLUSTER GUIDANCE FAVORS THE GFS
SCENARIO. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE
STATE ON WEDNESDAY (GFS) WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD
COMPARED TO HIGHER COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (ECMWF).
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS HOTTER AND DRIER AS UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL DUE TO THE UPPER HIGH (MONSOON HIGH)
BUILDING AND STRENGTHENING OVER MEXICO. WEAK TROUGHING OVER CA WILL
HELP TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MAINLY
NORTHERN AND EASTERN NM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS LOOK TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
MAY CREATE SOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION
FOR KSAF AND KLVS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE OUT WEST, VIRGA
SHOWERS MAY ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR KGUP. A
BACKDOOR FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN
NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING AND BRING IN A 15 TO 25 KT CANYON GAP
WIND FOR THE SANTA FE AND ABQ METROS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 214 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS WESTERN NM, ALLOW FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD VIRGA SHOWERS WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO
DEVELOP. A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, THUS A MIX OF WET AND DRY
STORMS WILL BE LIKELY, WITH THE 'WETTER' STORMS FOCUSED ACROSS ZONE
109. MEANWHILE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN IMPACT EASTERN NM EACH DAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
TODAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AND CROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
BY MID DAY MONDAY. ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE, INCLUDING REMNANTS OF
NOW TROPICAL STORM ALVIN, WILL SPREAD ACROSS NM AND WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FAVORING
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM, THOUGH EASTERN NM WON'T BE TOTALLY LEFT OUT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ARRIVE QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE
FIRST, KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 91 56 91 56 / 0 0 5 5
DULCE........................... 85 42 86 44 / 20 10 20 10
CUBA............................ 84 49 84 52 / 10 10 20 20
GALLUP.......................... 88 45 89 48 / 10 0 10 10
EL MORRO........................ 82 49 85 52 / 10 5 30 20
GRANTS.......................... 87 47 87 49 / 10 5 20 10
QUEMADO......................... 85 52 85 53 / 5 5 20 20
MAGDALENA....................... 83 56 84 58 / 10 10 30 20
DATIL........................... 82 52 83 54 / 20 10 30 20
RESERVE......................... 89 49 89 49 / 5 5 30 20
GLENWOOD........................ 92 51 92 54 / 5 10 30 20
CHAMA........................... 77 42 78 44 / 40 20 30 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 78 54 81 57 / 30 20 40 20
PECOS........................... 79 52 79 53 / 30 20 40 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 77 47 79 50 / 30 20 30 20
RED RIVER....................... 68 40 68 43 / 30 20 30 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 72 36 73 38 / 30 20 40 20
TAOS............................ 80 45 82 47 / 30 10 20 20
MORA............................ 76 46 75 47 / 40 20 50 20
ESPANOLA........................ 86 53 88 54 / 30 10 30 20
SANTA FE........................ 80 54 82 57 / 20 20 30 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 84 53 85 55 / 20 20 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 88 61 88 65 / 10 10 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 89 63 90 62 / 5 10 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 91 59 91 60 / 5 10 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 90 60 90 62 / 5 10 20 20
BELEN........................... 91 56 93 57 / 5 10 20 20
BERNALILLO...................... 90 60 91 60 / 10 10 20 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 91 55 92 57 / 5 10 20 20
CORRALES........................ 91 60 91 61 / 5 10 20 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 91 57 93 58 / 5 10 20 20
PLACITAS........................ 86 59 87 61 / 10 10 20 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 90 60 92 61 / 5 10 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 92 60 93 62 / 10 10 20 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 82 53 83 57 / 10 10 30 20
TIJERAS......................... 84 55 85 57 / 10 10 30 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 84 51 84 52 / 20 10 30 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 85 48 85 48 / 20 20 40 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 78 51 79 52 / 20 20 40 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 83 51 84 54 / 10 10 30 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 83 51 83 54 / 10 10 30 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 86 58 85 60 / 20 20 40 20
RUIDOSO......................... 76 54 77 56 / 40 20 60 20
CAPULIN......................... 75 49 75 48 / 10 10 20 20
RATON........................... 81 49 81 49 / 20 20 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 80 49 81 49 / 20 20 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 77 49 78 50 / 40 20 40 20
CLAYTON......................... 81 56 83 54 / 10 5 10 20
ROY............................. 78 51 79 52 / 20 20 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 84 56 87 57 / 20 20 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 81 56 84 56 / 30 20 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 82 59 87 58 / 10 20 20 20
CLOVIS.......................... 80 60 87 60 / 5 20 20 20
PORTALES........................ 82 58 88 59 / 5 20 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 83 57 88 58 / 20 20 20 20
ROSWELL......................... 84 64 91 66 / 20 20 20 10
PICACHO......................... 82 57 85 58 / 30 20 30 20
ELK............................. 81 54 84 56 / 40 20 50 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...25
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