444
FXUS65 KABQ 200523 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1123 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1109 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
- MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK CONTINUES FRIDAY AS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PERSIST. ISOLATED AREAS OF MAJOR HEAT RISK ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
- THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD RETURNS TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW
HUMIDITY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO,
INCREASING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STORMS HAVE MAINLY BEEN OUTFLOW DRIVEN THUS FAR,
MOVING DOWN IN ELEVATION AND COLLAPSING QUITE QUICKLY AS THE
DOWNDRAFTS OUTRUN THE UPDRAFTS. MOST AREAS WON'T SEE ANY
RAINFALL, BUT LOCATIONS DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH A STRONG STORM COULD
SEE UPWARDS OF 0.5". STORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES.
SKIES HAVE BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE HAZY THIS AFTERNOON AS SMOKE
FROM THE FIRES IN THE GILA MOUNTAINS SPREADS NORTH AND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. FORTUNATELY, MOST OF THE SMOKE IS ELEVATED SO IT
WON'T CREATE SIGNIFICANT HEALTH CONCERNS. A LIGHT BREEZE OVERNIGHT
IN MOST AREAS SHOULD PREVENT SMOKE FROM SETTLING INTO VALLEYS AS
WELL SO THAT SHOULDN'T BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. HAZY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AS TRANSPORT WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. WINDS TREND STRONGER NEAR THE
AZ BORDER WHERE A FEW GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 MPH MAY OCCUR MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK MIXING. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AND 700MB TEMPS DROP SO HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COME DOWN A
DEGREE OR TWO DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPING OFF OF MOUNTAIN RANGES SUCH
AS THE CHUSKAS. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL FUNNEL UP THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WHERE TEMPS WILL FLIRT AGAIN WITH 100F. THE COVERAGE OF
MAJOR HEAT RISK IS LOWER AND DECREASING TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST TEMPS
WILL DROP A BIT FROM THURSDAY'S HIGHS SO DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A
HEAT ADVISORY YET.
GUSTY SHOWERS WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BEING FAVORED. DRY
THUNDER IS MOST LIKELY OVER THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS WHERE LIS AS LOW
AS -3C COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DESPITE THE VERY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. THE BURN SCARS COULD ONCE AGAIN GET A SHOWER IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE FLASH FLOOD RISK REMAINS VERY LOW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
DRY AIR INTRUDES FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE PACNW DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. IT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND
BREEZY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH THE DRY LINE RECEDING BACK
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
PROBABLY BE THE LOWEST OF ALL DAYS IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS
(POTENTIALLY LONGER). MODERATE HEAT RISK IS LIKELY IN MANY AREAS
SO BE PREPARED IF PLANNING TO ENJOY THE DAY OUTSIDE.
A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL MAKE ITS APPEARANCE IN SOUTHERN NM
ON SUNDAY, MARKING THE FIRST DAY OF THIS EARLY SEASON MONSOONAL
SURGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS PWATS
SURGE TO OVER 150% OF NORMAL. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US ALONG WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY MOISTURE FLUX AT THE SFC SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ROUNDS AND ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT COULD CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NBM HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH
SHOWING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND RECENT RUNS HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN RAINFALL
TOTALS. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING
DAYS SINCE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT SFC HEATING ENOUGH TO
PREVENT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES FROM DEVELOPING. BOTH THE GEFS AND ENS
HAVE NOTABLY SHIFTED FURTHER WEST WITH THE PLUME OF MOISTURE, WHICH
WOULD LIKELY BRING STORM CHANCES AS FAR WEST AS THE AZ BORDER. STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE FAST EARLY WEEK, TRENDING SLOWER MID AND ESPECIALLY
LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
WILL BE A FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER,
SIMILARLY TO LAST NIGHT, PATCHY LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM. CONFIDENCE REGARDING LOCATION IS TOO LOW
TO INSERT INTO ANY TAF ATTM. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35KT WILL BE COMMON,
BUT HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE AROUND KGUP AND NORTHEAST
NM. SMOKE FROM THE BUCK AND TROUT FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HAZY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. NOT AS MANY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, BUT VIRGA AND/OR SPRINKLES WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN THE CONTDVD AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
BETWEEN KSRR AND KSXU. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH (SUSTAINED) OF FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IN WESTERN NM, CREATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY WILL BE PARTICULARLY DRY WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AS LOW AS 5% AND UP TO 14 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN
THE LEE OF THE CHUSKAS MOUNTAINS. HUMIDITIES INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON
SATURDAY THANKS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES AND WINDS MAY DROP A FEW
KNOTS, BUT DRYING FROM POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS AND THE VERY HIGH ERCS (ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE) SUGGEST
RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT. WINDS HAVE ALSO
TRENDED HIGHER ALONG THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY SO THAT ZONE MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND
THE COVERAGE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER INCREASES. A FEW DRY STORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH TRENDS SHOW SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL FAVOR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AS DRY AIR PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST.
WETTER WEATHER ARRIVES SUNDAY AS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES IN
FROM THE SOUTH. WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE WEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 62 98 57 93 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 52 92 46 88 / 0 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 61 91 55 89 / 0 10 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 53 93 48 88 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 58 90 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 57 95 51 91 / 0 10 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 60 92 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 68 91 63 91 / 0 20 5 5
DATIL........................... 60 90 56 87 / 0 10 0 5
RESERVE......................... 56 97 50 91 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 61 101 56 95 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 51 85 46 81 / 0 10 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 88 61 87 / 0 20 10 5
PECOS........................... 59 87 58 86 / 5 10 10 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 59 86 55 85 / 0 5 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 50 77 48 75 / 0 10 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 81 42 80 / 0 10 5 5
TAOS............................ 55 89 51 88 / 0 5 5 0
MORA............................ 51 85 51 84 / 5 10 5 5
ESPANOLA........................ 63 96 59 95 / 5 10 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 65 90 61 88 / 5 10 10 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 63 93 59 92 / 5 10 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 72 97 68 96 / 5 10 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 70 98 66 98 / 5 10 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 69 101 64 100 / 5 10 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 71 99 66 98 / 5 10 10 0
BELEN........................... 69 101 62 99 / 0 10 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 68 101 65 99 / 5 10 10 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 68 100 61 99 / 5 10 10 0
CORRALES........................ 70 101 66 99 / 5 10 10 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 69 100 62 99 / 5 10 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 70 96 67 94 / 5 10 10 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 70 99 66 98 / 5 10 10 0
SOCORRO......................... 74 102 67 101 / 0 10 5 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 63 91 60 90 / 5 10 10 5
TIJERAS......................... 65 93 62 92 / 5 10 10 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 58 92 59 91 / 5 10 10 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 93 55 91 / 10 10 10 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 59 87 59 86 / 10 10 10 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 61 91 59 91 / 10 10 10 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 91 59 91 / 10 10 10 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 64 94 67 93 / 20 10 5 10
RUIDOSO......................... 60 86 63 86 / 10 20 5 20
CAPULIN......................... 58 87 59 86 / 10 10 5 0
RATON........................... 56 90 54 90 / 10 10 5 0
SPRINGER........................ 58 93 57 91 / 20 10 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 57 88 56 88 / 10 10 10 5
CLAYTON......................... 68 94 67 94 / 5 5 5 0
ROY............................. 63 90 62 91 / 20 10 10 0
CONCHAS......................... 68 97 69 98 / 10 5 10 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 93 65 94 / 10 10 10 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 68 95 69 96 / 10 0 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 67 96 69 96 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 66 97 68 97 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 67 98 68 98 / 0 5 5 10
ROSWELL......................... 72 101 73 101 / 0 5 5 5
PICACHO......................... 63 95 65 96 / 10 20 5 20
ELK............................. 60 93 63 94 / 5 20 10 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NMZ101-105.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ101-105.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...34
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