467
FXUS65 KABQ 201141 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
541 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 532 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
- MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK CONTINUES TODAY AS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PERSIST. ISOLATED AREAS OF MAJOR HEAT RISK ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
- THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD RETURNS TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW
HUMIDITY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO, INCREASING THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING BOTH ON AND OFF BURN SCARS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
MIX TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND
40 MPH WILL BE COMMON, THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM AS WELL AS NORTHEAST NM. THESE WINDS WILL HELP
SPREAD THE SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE WILDFIRES ACROSS WESTERN NM INTO
CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS YESTERDAY,
THOUGH THE FAVORED AREA APPEARS TO BE FROM NEAR OR JUST EAST OF
RUIDOSO TOWARDS SANTA ROSA. GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
YESTERDAY AROUND RUIDOSO, WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS AREA CLOSELY
TODAY. HOWEVER, STORM MOTIONS WILL BE QUICKER TODAY, LESSENING THE
THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST NM WHERE A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS.
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS IN THIS AREA IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WITH LARGE INVERTED-V PROFILES ANTICIPATED. SMALL HAIL CAN'T BE
RULED OUT, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE MORE WIND THAN
PRECIPITATION. IN FACT, THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES AND/OR VIRGA
WITH GUSTY WINDS EXISTS BETWEEN THE CONTDVD AND THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN, BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
END AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY. IN
GENERAL, SATURDAY SHOULD BE A TOUCH WINDIER THAN TODAY. MOISTURE
FROM MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NM BY THE
AFTERNOON. MOST HI-RES MODELS SHOW AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA AND POPS HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT
WILL BE PRESENT, A BRIEF STRONG OR SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE, THOUGH
WEAK SHEAR WILL PREVENT STORMS FROM BEING ORGANIZED FOR VERY LONG.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
LOW CHANCE OF REMNANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST/SOUTHEAST NM SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A ROBUST NOCTURNAL LLJ
KEEPING BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM. INTO
SUNDAY, THE FIRST TASTE OF THE MONSOON ARRIVES AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SITS OVER EASTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH DIGS INTO WESTERN CONUS. THIS
PLACES NM PERFECTLY IN A REGION OF SOUTHERLY FLOW, SIPHONING
MOISTURE UP FROM THE SUBTROPICS. ADDITIONAL INFLUENCE MAY BE FELT BY
THE REMNANTS OF NOW POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK, BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS LIKELY OUTSIDE OF WHAT IS ALREADY EXPECTED.
THIS MOISTURE PLUME BEGINS TO ENTER NM SUNDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK, WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY HAVING THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. PWAT VALUES RISE
TO AN IMPRESSIVE 90-95TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THE STATE, PROVIDING
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE ABILITY FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES AND
FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. THE NBM HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN
PLACING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT SLOPES IN THE
HIGHEST QPF, WHICH IS LIKELY TO OCCUR GIVEN THE SCENARIO OF MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. NBM 50TH
PERCENTILE QPF PAINTS MUCH OF THE STATE WITH 0.5-1" FROM MONDAY TO
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT AREAS BETWEEN
1-2". 90TH PERCENTILE QPF HAS JUMPED UP FROM THIS TIME LAST NIGHT,
WITH A MAJORITY OF THE STATE ABOVE 1.5", AND WIDESPREAD 2-3.5"
ACROSS CENTRAL NM. THIS IS A REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO, WITH
MORE LIKELY AMOUNTS FALLING CLOSER TO THE 50TH PERCENTILE. A
POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR IN TERMS OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES
IS THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING
AND THUS LIMITING INSTABILITY. WHILE THIS LIKELY DOES NOT AFFECT
RAIN FALLING, RAINFALL RATES MAY BE HAMPERED BY THIS AND COULD
PROVIDE A BUFFER ON FLASH FLOOD THRESHOLDS. NEVERTHELESS, IT DOES
APPEAR THAT FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BOTH ON AND OFF BURN SCARS, MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK
AT LEAST. INTRODUCED TONIGHT BY WPC WERE SLIGHT RISKS OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY (15% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT).
CURRENT THINKING AGREES WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THESE SLIGHTS,
SIGNALING THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A WET, RAINY,
MONSOONAL START TO NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE WPC ERO
CHANCES DO NOT REPRESENT BURN SCARS PROPERLY, AND THE CHANCES ARE
HIGHER ACROSS THOSE AREAS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS COULD STILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING NEAR KLVS BUT THE WINDOW
IS CLOSING FOR THAT TO OCCUR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35KT WILL BE COMMON,
BUT HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE AROUND KGUP AND
NORTHEAST NM. SMOKE FROM THE BUCK AND TROUT FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING HAZY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. VIRGA AND/OR
SPRINKLES WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE CONTDVD AND
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXIST BETWEEN KSRR AND KSXU. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TAP FOR TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN NM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ZONE 109 WAS ADDED TO THE RFW AS WINDS
CAME UP A NOTCH AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THOUGH OVERALL, WINDS
REMAIN MARGINAL IN THIS ZONE. BETWEEN 6 AND 12 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NM.
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING, WITH BOTH ZONE 109 AND ZONE 121 INCLUDED AS WELL. SINGLE
DIGIT RH REMAINS ON TAP FOR WESTERN NM, THOUGH THE DURATION WILL NOT
BE QUITE AS LONG AS TODAY. ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEYS, RH VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT WILL
BE COMMON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THESE WINDS ARE SIMILAR TO OR JUST A
TOUCH HIGHER THAN FORECAST WINDS FOR TODAY FOR MOST AREAS.
MEANWHILE, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY FOR SPRINKLES AND
GUSTY WINDS FOR MOST AREAS BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BE UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN NM, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO EASTERN NM ON SUNDAY, THEN A SUBSTANTIAL
MONSOON PLUME WILL SET UP OVER ALL OF NM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND LOWER AND
HUMIDITIES HIGHER. AREAS OF FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF BURN SCARS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 99 57 93 57 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 92 47 87 47 / 5 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 92 55 90 53 / 20 5 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 95 49 89 48 / 5 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 90 52 86 50 / 5 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 96 51 91 50 / 5 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 93 54 88 52 / 5 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 92 62 90 60 / 10 5 5 5
DATIL........................... 91 55 87 53 / 10 0 5 5
RESERVE......................... 96 50 91 49 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 98 55 94 53 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 85 45 81 45 / 10 5 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 88 63 87 60 / 20 10 5 10
PECOS........................... 89 57 88 58 / 10 10 5 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 86 54 84 54 / 10 5 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 77 48 75 47 / 10 5 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 81 43 80 42 / 10 5 5 5
TAOS............................ 90 52 87 50 / 10 5 0 5
MORA............................ 84 51 83 52 / 10 10 5 10
ESPANOLA........................ 96 60 95 57 / 10 5 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 91 60 89 60 / 10 10 5 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 94 58 94 59 / 10 10 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 97 67 95 68 / 10 10 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 98 66 97 66 / 10 5 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 99 65 99 64 / 10 5 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 98 65 98 65 / 10 5 0 5
BELEN........................... 100 62 99 62 / 10 5 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 99 65 98 64 / 10 10 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 98 62 98 61 / 5 10 0 5
CORRALES........................ 99 65 98 65 / 10 5 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 99 63 98 63 / 5 5 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 95 65 94 65 / 10 10 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 98 66 96 65 / 10 5 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 101 67 100 67 / 5 5 10 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 90 60 89 59 / 10 10 5 10
TIJERAS......................... 93 62 91 61 / 10 10 5 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 92 60 91 57 / 10 10 5 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 94 55 92 55 / 10 10 5 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 88 59 87 58 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 92 60 91 58 / 5 10 10 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 91 59 90 58 / 5 10 10 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 94 67 93 66 / 10 5 10 10
RUIDOSO......................... 86 62 85 61 / 20 5 20 20
CAPULIN......................... 89 58 89 56 / 20 10 0 0
RATON........................... 92 56 93 53 / 10 10 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 93 57 93 56 / 20 10 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 90 56 89 56 / 20 10 5 10
CLAYTON......................... 96 66 96 65 / 10 10 0 0
ROY............................. 91 62 90 61 / 20 10 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 97 69 98 68 / 10 10 5 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 95 66 94 65 / 20 10 10 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 97 70 95 67 / 0 5 20 10
CLOVIS.......................... 97 66 95 66 / 0 0 20 20
PORTALES........................ 98 67 96 66 / 0 0 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 97 67 97 67 / 0 5 20 20
ROSWELL......................... 101 71 100 71 / 5 5 20 20
PICACHO......................... 94 65 95 64 / 20 5 20 20
ELK............................. 92 63 93 62 / 10 10 20 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ101-105-109.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR NMZ101-105-
109-121.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...34
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