656
FXUS65 KABQ 202335 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
535 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 404 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
- MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK CONTINUES TODAY AS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PERSIST. ISOLATED AREAS OF MAJOR HEAT RISK ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY
AND SATURDAY DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW
HUMIDITY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
NEXT WEEK ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING BOTH ON AND OFF RECENT BURN SCARS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
AS OF 3PM, THE RADAR IS ALREADY MORE ACTIVE THAN MANY MODELS WERE
SHOWING. STORMS HAVE INITIATED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WILL
SLOWLY CREEP NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DCAPE IN
EXCESS OF 1500J/KG IN THE VALLEY SUGGESTS THAT VERY STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS COULD IMPACT THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO THIS EVENING AS THESE
STORMS COME THROUGH. DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE A THREAT ANYWHERE
STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH WILL MOSTLY BE
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN
THE PLAINS SO LOW TEMPS WERE NUDGED UPWARDS AND COULD BE AS MUCH AS
15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOME AREAS.
SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY EXCEPT LOWER STORM COVERAGE AS A
RESULT OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR PUSHING ITS WAY EASTWARD. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE,
WITH MOSTLY NUISANCE IMPACTS (OUTSIDE OF THE INCREASED FIRE
DANGER). IT WILL STILL BE HOT, ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT TODAY
THANKS TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. TOMORROW'S CROP OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS WHERE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. HAZE WILL PLAGUE MUCH OF THE REGION AGAIN
TOMORROW, BUT SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND AIR QUALITY
CONCERNS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS VERY CLOSE TO THE ACTIVE FIRES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
SUNDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY OF THE SEASON'S FIRST MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SURGE. DRIER AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NM
THANKS TO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN, BUT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE EAST AND
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DESPITE
MODELS BEING QUITE CONSERVATIVE WITH QPF. A FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PLAINS, WITH BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ON THE TABLE IN THE MARGINAL SEVERE ENVIRONMENT.
THE WEATHER TURNS MORE ACTIVE MONDAY AS A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO NEW MEXICO FROM THE SOUTH IN-BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH TO THE WEST. PWATS RISE TO AS MUCH
AS 200% OF NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING SHOULD BE STRONG
BEFORE THE MOISTURE ARRIVES, SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. STRONG LIFT OUT AHEAD
OF THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH WILL CREATE WIND SHEAR AS WELL, WITH THE
HIGHEST SHEAR IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WESTWARD. THIS WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH FOR SEVERE STORMS AND THERE
COULD BE FLASH FLOODING AS WELL WITH TRAINING STORMS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS MAY INHIBIT STORM
STRENGTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, DESPITE THE VERY HIGH PWATS (AS MUCH
AS 250% OF NORMAL). THIS DOES CREATE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD
TO THE FLASH FLOOD RISK, EVEN THOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
SHOWING HEAVY RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS IN PLACE
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT STORM MOTIONS WILL TREND SLOWER.
THE COMPOUNDING EFFECT OF THIS WITH THE INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE FROM
DAYS OF RAIN WILL FURTHER ELEVATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER RECENT
BURN SCARS MID TO LATE WEEK.
QPF TOTALS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE
GRANDE ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING 1"+ ACROSS OVER 70% OF THE CWA. THE NBM
90TH PERCENTILE HAS BEEN HINTING AT TOTALS OF 5"+ OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL BE DIRECTLY
UNDER THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE EQUALLY IF
NOT MORE LIKELY TO SEE FLASH FLOODING SINCE INSTABILITY AND/OR SHEAR
WILL BE HIGHER IN THESE PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND EASTERN NM.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 404 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
GUSTY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A ROUND OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND
STORMS GRADUALLY DIMINISHES ACROSS EASTERN NM. SHOWER/STORM
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KLVS AND KROW THROUGH 02Z, WITH
STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS BEING THE GREATEST THREAT. A SIMILAR DAY
IS FORECAST SATURDAY IN TERMS OF WIND SPEEDS, BUT WITH EVEN LOWER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NM. KTCC WOULD BE
THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT FORECAST COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT
THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY IN WESTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEEPENS AND DRIER AIR INVADES FROM THE WEST. A CROP OF DRY STORMS
AND GUSTY SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THERE IS A CONCERN THAT THESE STORMS COULD
START ADDITIONAL FIRES GIVEN THE VERY DRY FUELS. TOMORROW'S AIRMASS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY'S IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM, CREATING
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE LOCALIZED
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, THE RED
FLAG WARNING WAS NOT EXPANDED SINCE BOTH WINDS SHOULDN'T REACH
CRITERIA ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO
EASTERN NM TOMORROW THANKS TO DRIER AIR ALOFT PUSHING IN FROM THE
WEST.
A WETTER PATTERN DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM HAVE A VERY HIGH CHANCE (>80%) OF WETTING
RAINFALL. THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT WEST MID-WEEK, INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEW FIRE STARTS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF ZONE
105 AND THE BUCK FIRE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 57 92 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 46 87 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 55 88 53 86 / 10 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 47 86 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 52 86 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 53 91 49 87 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 55 87 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 63 90 60 88 / 5 0 0 10
DATIL........................... 56 86 54 84 / 0 0 0 5
RESERVE......................... 50 90 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 55 94 53 92 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 45 80 44 78 / 5 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 87 60 83 / 10 0 5 10
PECOS........................... 58 86 57 83 / 10 5 5 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 55 84 54 81 / 5 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 48 74 47 71 / 5 0 0 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 79 43 75 / 5 0 0 10
TAOS............................ 50 87 51 84 / 5 0 0 5
MORA............................ 51 84 51 81 / 5 0 5 20
ESPANOLA........................ 61 94 57 91 / 5 0 5 10
SANTA FE........................ 62 88 60 85 / 10 0 5 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 91 58 88 / 10 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 69 95 67 93 / 10 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 68 97 66 94 / 10 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 99 65 97 / 10 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 68 97 66 95 / 10 0 0 5
BELEN........................... 66 99 62 96 / 5 0 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 67 98 65 95 / 10 0 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 65 99 62 96 / 5 0 0 5
CORRALES........................ 67 99 65 96 / 10 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 67 99 62 96 / 5 0 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 67 94 65 91 / 10 0 0 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 97 65 95 / 10 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 70 100 67 98 / 5 0 0 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 61 89 59 86 / 10 0 5 10
TIJERAS......................... 63 91 61 88 / 10 0 5 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 58 91 57 87 / 10 0 5 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 91 54 88 / 10 5 5 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 59 87 57 82 / 10 10 5 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 60 90 58 88 / 5 5 5 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 90 57 87 / 5 10 5 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 68 93 66 90 / 5 10 10 40
RUIDOSO......................... 63 86 61 83 / 5 20 10 60
CAPULIN......................... 59 87 56 83 / 10 0 0 10
RATON........................... 56 90 53 86 / 10 0 0 10
SPRINGER........................ 59 92 56 88 / 10 0 0 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 57 88 57 83 / 10 5 5 20
CLAYTON......................... 69 95 65 91 / 5 0 0 10
ROY............................. 65 91 61 86 / 10 10 0 20
CONCHAS......................... 70 98 67 94 / 5 10 5 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 95 63 91 / 10 10 10 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 70 97 67 91 / 0 10 10 20
CLOVIS.......................... 70 97 67 91 / 0 20 10 20
PORTALES........................ 68 97 66 93 / 0 20 10 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 69 98 66 94 / 5 20 10 40
ROSWELL......................... 73 102 72 96 / 10 20 10 30
PICACHO......................... 65 96 63 91 / 20 20 10 50
ELK............................. 63 93 61 90 / 10 20 10 60
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ101-105-109.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR NMZ101-105-
109-121.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...11
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