379
FXUS65 KABQ 211120 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
520 AM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 515 AM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY DUE
TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
NEXT WEEK ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING BOTH ON AND OFF RECENT BURN SCARS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE PACNW WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE
SOUTHWARD TODAY, INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
NM. IN GENERAL, WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH COMMON. HOWEVER,
SOME AREAS COULD BRIEFLY BE STRONGER. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BRING IN VERY DRY AIR TO WESTERN NM, WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE, SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER EASTERN NM WILL BEGIN TO DRAW UP MID LEVEL MOISTURE. A LOW
LEVEL SURFACE MOISTURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH MODEST LIFT FROM THE
SLOWLY APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT
FOR STORMS TO BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN CONCERN THOUGH SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT, STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN NM. GUSTS NEAR 40-45 MPH
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER
CA/NV ON SUNDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN NM WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. MEANWHILE, VERY
DRY AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN NM WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. ONCE
AGAIN, ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE DRIER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REACHING RUIDOSO, THEN STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY, AND THIS LATTER AREA IS WHERE STORMS
AND PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FAVORED. IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
RUIDOSO WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IF THE MOIST THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW FROM EASTERN LINCOLN CO. BACKS INTO RUIDOSO, BUT CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER
THE BURN SCARS. MEANWHILE, MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL RECEIVE
PRECIPITATION. ONCE AGAIN, A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SUNDAY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE FAVORED, BUT HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
REMNANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NM ASSOCIATED WITH SUNDAY'S INITIAL MONSOON BURST. THE
MONSOON MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL BEGINS TO PICK UP
SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE ON MONDAY. SUFFICIENT SURFACE
HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS MAY RESIDE AMONGST THE GROUP,
GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
OUR WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE INVERTED-V LAYERS WITH
DCAPE VALUES NEARING 1000 J/KG, SO GUSTY TO SEVERE LEVEL OUTFLOW
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORM.
ADDITIONALLY, PWAT VALUES RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, LIKELY REACHING
95TH PERCENTILE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, ONLY TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER
TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS, EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES ARE LIKELY FROM ANY
MATURE STORM AND A FLASH FLOODING RISK IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MONDAY
NIGHT, AS MOST MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING. THIS MAY PUT A
HAMPER ON THE RAINFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS FOR TUESDAY, GIVEN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THIS, AS MODEL QPF OUTPUTS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TUESDAY BEING THE RAINIEST DAY. THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PULSES OF VORTICITY MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, COMBATING THAT CLOUD COVER AND
LACK OF SURFACE HEATING. SO, WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE FLASH FLOODING
THREAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR TUESDAY, THERE STILL REMAINS A
HEIGHTENED RISK. MOISTURE REMAINS, BUT SLOWLY DECREASES, ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH STORM MOTIONS SLOWING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES CALMER. THIS COULD CONTINUE THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS HAVING RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THE DAYS BEFOREHAND.
QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE STATE ARE VERY LIKELY TO RANGE IN THE 0.75-
1.25" ACROSS A MAJORITY OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM, WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER VALUES IN WESTERN NM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NBM 90TH
PERCENTILE RAINFALL COVERS ROUGHLY 60% OF THE FORECAST AREA IN 2" OR
GREATER OF RAINFALL, WITH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS CONTINUING TO BE A
HOTSPOT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 3"+. ALL SAID AND DONE, OUR FIRST SURGE
OF MONSOON MOISTURE IS VERY LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE FLASH FLOODING RISK, BOTH ON AND OFF BURN
SCARS, IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS EASTERN NM AS
EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE A RELATIVE LULL OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS
BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO RAMP UP AREAWIDE AGAIN. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WITH GUSTS SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY ARE ON TAP TODAY,
GENERALLY 30 TO 40KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS OF NM THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF STRONG OR SEVERE STORM IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THESE
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. SIMILARLY TO TONIGHT,
SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STAY ELEVATED ACROSS EASTERN
NM WHILE DECOUPLING ELSEWHERE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TAP FOR TODAY ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN NM AS WELL AS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE AND LOWER CHAMA RIVER
VALLEYS. ELSEWHERE, ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN TODAY.
OVERALL, WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, BUT MAY BE A TOUCH
HIGHER IN SPOTS. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON. SEVERAL HOURS OF
SINGLE DIGIT RH IS STILL EXPECTED FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCALES
(<7500FT) WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN
10 AND 15 PERCENT ARE LIKELY FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL AREAS TODAY, THEN MUCH OF EASTERN NM ON SUNDAY. THEREAFTER,
A SUBSTANTIAL MONSOON PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL SET UP ACROSS NM FOR
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WILL
STILL FAVOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM ON MONDAY BEFORE SPREADING
WESTWARD ON TUESDAY. AREAS OF FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF BURN SCARS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 93 57 89 52 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 88 47 83 40 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 89 54 86 50 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 89 49 85 43 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 86 50 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 91 50 88 46 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 87 52 85 49 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 91 61 88 57 / 0 0 5 0
DATIL........................... 87 54 84 51 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 90 49 88 46 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 93 54 91 52 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 81 45 77 42 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 87 62 83 57 / 0 0 5 5
PECOS........................... 87 57 83 53 / 0 5 10 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 84 53 81 50 / 0 0 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 75 46 71 43 / 0 0 5 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 79 44 76 37 / 0 0 5 5
TAOS............................ 89 52 85 47 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 83 51 80 47 / 0 5 10 10
ESPANOLA........................ 94 58 91 53 / 0 0 5 5
SANTA FE........................ 89 60 86 56 / 0 5 5 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 93 59 89 54 / 0 5 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 95 67 92 64 / 0 5 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 98 68 94 62 / 0 5 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 99 65 96 60 / 0 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 98 66 95 61 / 0 5 0 0
BELEN........................... 99 63 96 58 / 0 5 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 98 65 95 60 / 0 5 5 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 98 63 95 57 / 0 5 5 0
CORRALES........................ 99 66 96 60 / 0 5 5 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 99 64 96 58 / 0 5 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 94 65 91 62 / 0 5 5 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 97 66 94 60 / 0 5 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 101 67 98 63 / 0 0 10 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 89 59 86 55 / 0 5 5 5
TIJERAS......................... 91 62 88 57 / 0 5 5 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 91 58 87 52 / 0 5 10 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 91 56 88 49 / 0 5 10 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 87 58 82 54 / 5 5 20 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 91 59 87 55 / 0 5 10 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 90 59 87 55 / 0 5 10 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 94 67 89 61 / 5 10 20 20
RUIDOSO......................... 86 61 79 57 / 20 10 50 30
CAPULIN......................... 89 56 82 54 / 0 0 20 10
RATON........................... 93 56 88 52 / 0 0 10 10
SPRINGER........................ 93 57 88 54 / 0 5 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 90 56 83 52 / 0 5 30 20
CLAYTON......................... 96 65 90 62 / 0 5 20 20
ROY............................. 91 61 86 58 / 5 5 30 20
CONCHAS......................... 98 67 94 65 / 10 10 40 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 95 65 90 62 / 10 10 50 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 97 67 92 65 / 10 10 30 30
CLOVIS.......................... 96 66 90 66 / 20 30 30 40
PORTALES........................ 97 65 91 66 / 20 30 30 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 98 67 92 65 / 20 20 60 30
ROSWELL......................... 102 72 94 70 / 20 20 40 30
PICACHO......................... 95 64 90 61 / 20 10 70 30
ELK............................. 93 62 88 58 / 20 20 70 40
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NMZ101-105-109-121.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...34
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