068
FXUS65 KABQ 212033
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
233 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 208 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
VERY LOW HUMIDITY. THERE WILL STILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF FAR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND
THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
- A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH RAINFALL CHANCES
INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY, FIRST OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BEFORE
SPREADING INTO MOST REMAINING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS OF THE
STATE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE MANY LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE BENEFICIAL SOAKING RAINFALL, SEVERAL CENTRAL AREAS WILL
RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND A
HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. BURN SCARS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
STORM COVERAGE HAS TRENDED DOWN CONSIDERABLY TODAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR
HAS SPREAD FARTHER EAST INTO MORE OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. STORMS
THAT DO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST NM WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG DOWNBURST
WIND GUSTS >50 MPH GIVEN HIGH DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. VERY
DRY, HOT, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION THRU SUNSET AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
MOVES EAST TOWARD NM THRU TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL FORCE 700-500MB FLOW TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER EASTERN NM AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SOUTH WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NM TONIGHT AS A RESULT. A FEW AREAS FROM
NEAR TUCUMCARI TO CLAYTON MAY PEAK NEAR 50 MPH (40-60% CHANCE ON
LATEST NBM). THESE WINDS WILL ALSO DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO EASTERN NM FROM A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE POOLING OVER MEXICO.
THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH ENHANCED FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE SUNDAY IN EASTERN
NM. THE SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHOWS A 'MARGINAL RISK' FOR SEVERE
STORMS OVER EASTERN NM AND 'SLIGHT RISK' FOR NORTHEAST NM. THERE
IS PLENTY OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WITH PWATS INCREASING ABOVE
1" HOWEVER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE MARGINAL IN THE 20-30KT RANGE.
THE SUITE OF HI-RES MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STORM
INITIATION TO THE EAST OF RUIDOSO BEFORE MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE SACRAMENTO MTS. THE HREF MAX ENSEMBLE QPF VALUES ARE
<0.30" IN THE RUIDOSO AREA WHILE THE RRFS HAS VALUES UP TO 0.75"
NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF RUIDOSO. GIVEN THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY WITH
QPF AND THE LATEST NBM PRECIP CHANCES TRENDED A TAD LOWER AGAIN,
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THESE BURN SCARS. THE STORMS OVER EASTERN NM MAY ALSO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE SAME MODEL ENSEMBLE MAX QPF VALUES
EXCEEDING 2" OVER CHAVES, CURRY, AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL FORCE MOISTURE FARTHER WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY SPAWN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THRU
THE EVENING ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
MONDAY WILL BEGIN WITH DEEPER MOISTURE FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN. REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM STORMS SUNDAY OVER
EASTERN NM MAY LEAD TO A SLOW START ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN LIGHTS UP BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. BACKING LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL IMPROVE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHILE PWATS INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH HIGHER THAT FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED FOR HPCC AND THE
RUIDOSO AREA. THERE IS ALSO HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STORM CELLS TO FORM
REPEATEDLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BENEATH AN APPROACHING 50KT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SPEED MAX ALOFT. STORM
OUTFLOWS WILL FORCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEST THRU THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TO THE CONT DIVIDE MONDAY EVENING WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ALSO INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THRU MONDAY NIGHT UNLIKE THE TYPICAL DECREASE THAT OCCURS
AFTER SUNSET.
BY TUESDAY, A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER MEXICO WILL BE SQUEEZED
DIRECTLY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NM AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER TX
AND A SECOND VORT LOBE DEEPENS THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
PWATS MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 1" AT KABQ TUESDAY MORNING WITH VALUES
NEAR 1.5" AROUND ROSWELL. SHOWERS AND/OR PATCHY AREAS OF RAIN ARE
LIKELY TO BE SPREADING NORTH OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY SURFACE-BASED CAPE, THAT WILL
BE AVAILABLE OVER THE REGION FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP INTO STORMS
BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HI-RES ENSEMBLE RRFS SHOWS WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ERUPTING OVER THE REGION BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED QPF FOOTPRINTS IN EXCESS OF 2" ARE NOTED FROM
MANY OF THESE STORMS. GLOBAL MODELS THEN DEVELOP A LARGE AREA OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM-CORE LOW MOVES NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NM. THE FORECAST PWAT AT KABQ IS NEAR 1.35" WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WHICH COULD BREAK THE DAILY RECORD AND PLACE IN THE TOP
10 HIGHEST PWATS FOR JUNE. THE LATEST WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOKS SHOWS A RARE 'MODERATE RISK' AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NM FOR
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. SIMILAR UNCERTAINTY WITH INSTABILITY
OCCURS WEDNESDAY AS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING PRECIP IN
THE MORNING POSSIBLY DELAYS OR PREVENTS STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN VERY HIGH AND
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, ESPECIALLY FOR BURN
SCAR AREAS. THE LATEST NBM 72-HOUR QPF ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT DID
TREND A TAD LOWER BUT AMOUNTS ARE STILL VERY IMPRESSIVE. THE 50TH
PERCENTILE CONTINUES TO FOCUS 3-DAY VALUES OF 1-2" WITHIN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NM WITH REASONABLE HIGH-END VALUES IN THE 2-4" RANGE
FOR THE SAME AREA (90TH PERCENTILE). IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
REASONABLE LOW-END AMOUNTS AVERAGE <0.25" FOR THE 3-DAYS (10TH
PERCENTILE) WHICH IS A VAST DEPARTURE FROM THE 50TH PERCENTILE.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TO OUR EAST WHILE ANOTHER HIGH CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE BAJA
REGION. DRIER AIR MAY ENTER WESTERN NM WITH THIS PATTERN HOWEVER
ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NM. LIGHTER FLOW ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY STILL
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THRU
FRIDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS MAY ALREADY BE SATURATED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY. ISOLATED SHRA/TS MAY FORM NEAR THE SACRAMENTO MTS
BY 2PM THEN MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
NM THRU SUNSET. ELSEWHERE, MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL BUILD THRU
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS CREEPING NORTH.
WINDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM AFTER SUNSET BUT
REMAIN STRONG ACROSS EASTERN NM WHERE SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 40KT
MAY PERSIST THRU AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM. DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN A TAD
BREEZY SUNDAY AND MONDAY OVER FAR NORTHWEST NM WHERE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS. THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TOWARD INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY. STORM COVERAGE WILL
SPREAD CLOSER TO CENTRAL NM MONDAY THEN TO MUCH OF NM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. EXTENDED PERIODS OF RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD, INCLUDING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR BURN SCAR
FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH EACH ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 57 90 52 90 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 47 83 41 86 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 53 86 50 85 / 0 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 47 84 43 86 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 50 82 48 84 / 0 0 0 5
GRANTS.......................... 49 88 46 88 / 0 0 0 10
QUEMADO......................... 52 85 49 86 / 0 0 0 5
MAGDALENA....................... 62 88 57 86 / 0 5 0 30
DATIL........................... 54 84 51 85 / 0 0 0 20
RESERVE......................... 49 89 46 90 / 0 0 0 5
GLENWOOD........................ 54 92 51 93 / 0 0 0 5
CHAMA........................... 44 77 42 80 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 84 56 83 / 0 10 0 20
PECOS........................... 57 82 53 81 / 5 20 10 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 53 82 50 82 / 0 5 0 10
RED RIVER....................... 46 72 42 71 / 0 5 0 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 76 37 75 / 0 10 5 30
TAOS............................ 52 84 47 84 / 0 5 0 10
MORA............................ 51 81 47 78 / 0 10 10 40
ESPANOLA........................ 58 92 54 90 / 0 5 0 10
SANTA FE........................ 60 85 56 85 / 0 10 5 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 89 55 88 / 0 10 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 68 93 64 91 / 5 10 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 67 95 61 93 / 5 5 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 97 61 95 / 5 5 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 95 61 93 / 5 5 0 10
BELEN........................... 63 97 59 93 / 5 5 0 10
BERNALILLO...................... 65 96 61 94 / 0 5 0 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 62 96 58 94 / 5 5 0 10
CORRALES........................ 66 97 61 95 / 5 5 0 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 64 96 59 93 / 5 5 0 10
PLACITAS........................ 66 91 61 90 / 0 5 0 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 95 61 93 / 5 5 0 10
SOCORRO......................... 67 97 64 95 / 0 5 0 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 60 87 55 84 / 0 10 0 20
TIJERAS......................... 62 89 57 88 / 0 10 0 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 57 88 53 85 / 0 10 5 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 55 88 51 85 / 0 10 5 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 82 54 78 / 5 20 10 40
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 59 87 54 84 / 0 10 5 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 87 55 83 / 5 20 10 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 67 89 62 85 / 5 30 20 60
RUIDOSO......................... 61 82 58 75 / 20 50 30 80
CAPULIN......................... 57 83 54 75 / 0 20 10 40
RATON........................... 54 87 53 80 / 0 10 5 30
SPRINGER........................ 58 88 55 82 / 0 20 10 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 57 83 53 79 / 0 20 10 40
CLAYTON......................... 65 91 62 83 / 5 30 20 40
ROY............................. 62 87 59 80 / 5 30 20 40
CONCHAS......................... 67 94 66 86 / 10 30 30 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 65 89 62 82 / 10 40 20 50
TUCUMCARI....................... 68 91 66 83 / 10 30 30 50
CLOVIS.......................... 67 91 66 83 / 30 30 40 50
PORTALES........................ 65 92 66 83 / 30 40 30 50
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 93 65 84 / 10 40 30 60
ROSWELL......................... 72 96 70 86 / 10 40 40 60
PICACHO......................... 64 91 61 82 / 10 50 30 80
ELK............................. 62 89 59 81 / 10 60 40 80
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ101-105-109-
121.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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