873
FXUS65 KABQ 220823
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
223 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 223 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2025
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF FAR
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY.
- A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATE
TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH RAINFALL CHANCES
INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY, FIRST OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BEFORE
SPREADING INTO MOST REMAINING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS OF THE
STATE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- WHILE MANY LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE BENEFICIAL SOAKING RAINFALL,
SEVERAL CENTRAL AREAS WILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL LEAD
TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND A HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. BURN
SCARS WILL BE EXTREMELY VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2025
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND A STRONG UPPER HIGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY, MONSOON FLOW OVER
NM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR TODAY, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS EASTERN NM, WHILE A DRY SLOT REMAINS OVER WESTERN NM. THE
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE FROM THE
AZ BORDER TO NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE EAST SLOPES, A STRONG SURFACE MOISTURE
GRADIENT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STORMS SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. HI-RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE ACROSS EASTERN
LINCOLN COUNTY AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE BURN SCARS, THUS A FLOOD WATCH
WILL NOT BE ISSUED FOR THE RUIDOSO AREA TODAY. AS STORMS EXPAND
ACROSS EASTERN NM, THEY SHOULD TAP INTO UP TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
AND 20 TO 30KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THUS, SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
ORGANIZED RESULTING IN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH BY 9PM OR SO BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ON MONDAY, WITH
THE EASTERN HALF OF NM (ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN)
BEING FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION. CHANCES ARE VERY HIGH (>80%) THAT
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS, LIKELY
STARTING BEFORE THE NOON HOUR ON MONDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA STARTING AT 11AM MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THOUGH ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY
BE NEEDED ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE RUIDOSO
AREA COULD SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF FLOODING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THOUGH CHANCES ARE HIGHER DURING THE AFTERNOON IN GENERAL,
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON AND OFF DAY AND NIGHT MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PWATS ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL BE GREATER THAN THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, OR 1 TO 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. NUMEROUS STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
NM AND THEY WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. CAN'T RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2025
THE PEAK OF THE FIRST SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE FOR THE SEASON IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THE STATE REMAINS IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A VERY STRONG 598 DAM 500 MB
UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. PWATS IN THE
MONSOON PLUME ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1.1
TO 1.4 INCHES WHICH IS NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR LATE JUNE ACCORDING TO
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AT KABQ. THIS HIGH AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST ACROSS THESE
ZONES, WITH FLASH FLOODING AND DESTRUCTIVE DEBRIS FLOWS LIKELY FOR
THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS AND HPCC BURN SCAR. FOR THAT REASON, A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS,
WITH MORE ZONES LIKELY TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR URBAN AND ARROYO FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST
FOR THE ABQ AND SANTA FE METROS DUE TO HEAVY EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH. WITH THE HIGH STORM COVERAGE AND CLOUD
COVER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PLUME, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AND WELL
BELOW AVERAGE BY 12 TO 17 DEGREES FOR LATE JUNE WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND EASTERN NM DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER CLOUD
COVER AND STORM COVERAGE ON THE EDGE OF THE PLUME. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE LASTING WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NM. MORE OF THE SAME
IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH PWATS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
A TOUCH LOWER AT AROUND 1 TO 1.3 INCHES. ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON FOR WEDNESDAY IS THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND RAINFALL RATES,
AS THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER CARRYING OVER FROM TUESDAY'S ACTIVITY
COULD HELP LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY AND THUS HIGH RAINFALL RATES.
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO LOWER GRADUALLY LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AS THE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT BASIN DAMPENS AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES QUASIZONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER, ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE (PWATS
RANGING FROM 0.7 TO 1.2 INCHES) WILL REMAIN FOR MANY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS, KEEPING NUMEROUS SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE
AND THE HIGHER RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THIS PART OF THE
STATE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOK TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
OVER THE DESERT SW COME THE WEEKEND, HELPING TO LOWER SHOWER AND
STORM COVERAGE EVEN MORE AND KEEP IT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAIN RANGES AND SURROUNDING HIGHLANDS. WITH THE LOWER SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE AND CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS, TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE END
OF JUNE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS EASTERN NM WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 40KT COMMON, THOUGH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 45KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KTCC. THESE WINDS WILL
DECREASE SOME DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, THOUGH WILL REMAIN BREEZY.
MEANWHILE, BY MID MORNING ADDITIONAL BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30KT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF LOW
VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN, HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MOST STORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 06Z MON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2025
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TAP
TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY, WITH MOST AREAS TOPPING OUT WITH
25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS. HOWEVER, VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
BETWEEN 6 AND 9 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN
PLAGUE THIS AREA. MEANWHILE, MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN NM TODAY, SPREAD TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON
MONDAY, THEN ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NW AREAS ON TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TAP. MANY LOCALES WILL RECEIVE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF RAINFALL BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING, BOTH ON AND OFF BURN SCARS, WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION TO
THE RAIN, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RETURN. STORM COVERAGE WILL TREND DOWNWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
REMAIN CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 89 50 90 57 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 83 41 85 48 / 0 0 0 10
CUBA............................ 86 48 85 54 / 0 0 0 30
GALLUP.......................... 86 42 87 46 / 0 0 0 5
EL MORRO........................ 83 46 84 51 / 0 0 0 10
GRANTS.......................... 88 43 88 52 / 0 0 5 10
QUEMADO......................... 86 49 85 53 / 0 0 0 20
MAGDALENA....................... 88 56 86 61 / 0 0 10 40
DATIL........................... 84 50 84 55 / 0 0 10 30
RESERVE......................... 88 45 88 48 / 0 0 0 10
GLENWOOD........................ 91 51 91 53 / 0 0 0 10
CHAMA........................... 76 41 79 46 / 0 0 0 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 83 57 82 60 / 5 0 5 40
PECOS........................... 84 53 82 56 / 10 10 30 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 81 50 81 53 / 0 0 5 20
RED RIVER....................... 71 41 71 45 / 0 0 10 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 77 36 74 43 / 5 0 20 30
TAOS............................ 85 46 84 52 / 0 0 5 20
MORA............................ 81 46 78 50 / 10 10 30 40
ESPANOLA........................ 91 54 89 59 / 5 0 5 30
SANTA FE........................ 87 56 84 60 / 5 5 20 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 91 53 88 59 / 5 5 10 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 94 63 90 67 / 5 0 10 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 95 64 91 66 / 5 0 5 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 97 59 93 66 / 0 0 5 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 95 61 92 66 / 0 0 5 40
BELEN........................... 96 57 94 64 / 0 0 5 40
BERNALILLO...................... 96 60 93 65 / 5 0 5 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 96 56 93 63 / 0 0 5 40
CORRALES........................ 97 61 93 66 / 5 0 5 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 96 58 93 65 / 0 0 5 40
PLACITAS........................ 92 61 89 64 / 5 0 5 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 95 60 92 66 / 0 0 5 40
SOCORRO......................... 98 63 95 69 / 0 0 10 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 87 54 84 58 / 5 0 10 50
TIJERAS......................... 89 56 87 60 / 5 0 10 50
EDGEWOOD........................ 88 51 85 56 / 10 5 30 50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 89 50 86 56 / 10 5 30 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 84 54 79 56 / 20 20 40 60
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 88 54 85 57 / 10 0 30 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 87 54 84 57 / 10 5 40 60
CARRIZOZO....................... 90 61 84 62 / 30 10 50 50
RUIDOSO......................... 81 57 76 56 / 40 20 80 60
CAPULIN......................... 85 54 76 55 / 20 10 30 40
RATON........................... 90 54 80 55 / 10 5 30 30
SPRINGER........................ 90 55 83 58 / 10 10 30 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 86 52 79 55 / 20 20 30 50
CLAYTON......................... 91 63 82 62 / 30 20 50 40
ROY............................. 86 59 80 59 / 20 20 30 50
CONCHAS......................... 94 65 87 64 / 30 20 40 60
SANTA ROSA...................... 89 62 84 62 / 30 20 40 60
TUCUMCARI....................... 91 66 85 64 / 30 30 50 60
CLOVIS.......................... 91 66 83 65 / 50 60 70 60
PORTALES........................ 92 65 84 65 / 50 60 70 60
FORT SUMNER..................... 94 65 85 64 / 50 30 60 60
ROSWELL......................... 97 70 86 68 / 50 40 60 60
PICACHO......................... 90 62 82 61 / 60 30 80 60
ELK............................. 89 59 80 58 / 60 30 80 60
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...34
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