344
FXUS65 KABQ 230539 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1139 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1129 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2025
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL
SUNSET.
- THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
INCREASE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AND MONDAY THEN SPREAD TO
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE TODAY AND MONDAY.
- WHILE MANY LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE BENEFICIAL SOAKING RAINFALL,
ISOLATED LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAY
RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT PRODUCES EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND A HIGH
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. BURN SCARS WILL BE EXTREMELY VULNERABLE
TO FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2025
THERE WERE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THRU MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ON DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS. STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN FIRING UP ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF LINCOLN COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GROW DOWNSTREAM INTO AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG OVER
THE CAPROCK AND NM/TX BORDER. MARGINAL BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO
30KT WILL SUPPORT SOME HAIL SO DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT.
PWATS ARE CLIMBING CLOSER TO 1.5" OVER SOUTHEAST NM SO THE THREAT
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM CELLS WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND BACKING OF VERTICAL
WIND PROFILES WILL HELP TO FORCE MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
TOWARD THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN LATE TONIGHT. LOW STRATUS MAY IMPACT
EASTERN NM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING SOUTHERN NV MONDAY AND A SPRAWLING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW 700-500MB FLOW TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WHILE INCREASING OVER NM. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT ASCENT WILL INCREASE WHILE A 55-65KT SPEED MAX
EJECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NM. MEANWHILE, MOIST SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS OVER EASTERN NM WILL CONVERGE ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN WITH DRIER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NM. BULK SHEAR IN THIS ENVIRONMENT IS MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN TODAY
WITH SIMILAR CAPE VALUES SO A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE RUIDOSO AREA BY LATE
MORNING THEN OVER MORE OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS
BY THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT, STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THERE IS A HIGH RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE RUIDOSO AREA. OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS OVER
EASTERN NM ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND NEARBY RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT
AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS THE HPCC BURN SCAR TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE, THE FOCUS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
MAY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST NM MONDAY EVENING WHERE THE STORMS FROM
THE RUIDOSO AREA BUILD INTO A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHILE
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CHAVES AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. MESO-BETA
HEAVY RAINFALL ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS CLUSTER PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST
AT LESS THAN <10 MPH WITH LOCALIZED MAX QPF AMOUNTS FROM HI-RES
ENSEMBLES >3". AN EXPANSION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
WARRANTED FOR AREAS FARTHER EAST OF RUIDOSO MONDAY. THE REST OF
MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREADING
NORTH INTO MORE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2025
TUESDAY IS STILL THE DAY TO WATCH FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THE LATEST
WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED THE 'MODERATE RISK' FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO MORE OF CENTRAL NM WHILE PWATS ARE NEAR RECORD
VALUES FOR LATE JUNE. MODELS ARE ALSO COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE PLACE OVER MUCH OF NM WITH
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE, POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION, AND STRETCHING
OF THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL NM. HI-RES MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING STORMS ERUPTING BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER ALL THE HIGH TERRAIN
BEFORE SPREADING NORTHWARD AND EXPANDING INTO NEARBY HIGHLANDS AND
VALLEYS. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STATIONARY AND TRAINING
STORM CELLS AS THEY LATCH ONTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE BUILDING
SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE MEAN FLOW.
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE ALMOST A CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT (>80%
LIKELIHOOD) FOR A LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL NM. THERE IS STILL A LOW
CHANCE (<20%) THAT TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER, COOLER TEMPS, AND A LACK
OF PROPER TIMING FROM FORCING ALOFT LIMITS INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE REGION ONCE STORMS DO FORM. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT
OVER WESTERN NM WILL BE CLOSER TO MORE SUNSHINE AND THE FORCING
WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MAY SERVE AS A MORE UNSTABLE INITIATION POINT FOR STORMS.
THIS AREA OF STORMS IS SHOWN BY SEVERAL MODELS MERGING WITH STORMS
FARTHER EAST INTO A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL NM
TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DETERIORATE DURING
THIS PERIOD SINCE THERE ARE SEVERAL KEY FEATURES THAT STILL NEED
MORE TIME TO PIN DOWN ON GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE ARRIVAL OF A
WARM-CORE LOW SLIDING NORTH FROM NORTHERN MX AND TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. NONETHELESS, THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING STILL EXISTS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MAIN STEM RIVERS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES TO BEGIN RISING WITHIN
CENTRAL NM. THE LATEST NAM12 TRENDS HAVE THE HEAVIER QPF FOCUSED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS CAN BE
SEEN IN THE NBM QPF TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS AS WELL.
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEDNESDAY SO MORE
STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE
VERY LIKELY (>60%) WITH MORE SEVERE TO EXTREME BURN SCAR FLOODING
POSSIBLE. EXTENDED MODELS STILL SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WASHING
OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY THEN EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FRIDAY.
REMNANT MOISTURE OVER NM WILL STILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE PICTURE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BECOME VERY SLOW SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS MAY KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT GOING THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2025
LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING QUICKLY LATE THIS EVENING NEAR KLVS AND
KCAO. MVFR WITH LOCALIZED IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM OVERNIGHT DESPITE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WET
MICROBURSTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
OVER 40KT AS WELL. STORMS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MONDAY NIGHT. IFR CIGS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND EXPAND MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NM AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2025
MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER FAR
NORTHWEST NM AND THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH SUNSET. VERY
DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY ACROSS THE WEST HOWEVER
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO TREND LIGHTER THAN RECENT DAYS. THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT TO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL THIS WEEK AS A VERY RICH TAP
OF MONSOON MOISTURE SURGES NORTH INTO NM. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
INCREASE OVER EASTERN NM TODAY THEN BUILD MORE INTO CENTRAL NM
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WITH FOOTPRINTS >1.5" POSSIBLE, LEADING TO A HIGH RISK OF
BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
PRIMARY FOCUS AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING AND DEPTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
NONETHELESS, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT MANY
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ABQ METRO WILL PICK UP 1 TO 2" WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4" POSSIBLE. THIS WILL VERY
HELPFUL FOR TAMING CURRENT WILDFIRES AND MITIGATING THE SEVERITY
OF ANY ADDITIONAL FIRES GOING FORWARD. HOWEVER, THE BURN SCAR
FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY BECOME EXTREME. THERE IS STILL A THREAT
FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW-MOVING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY
AND PERHAPS FRIDAY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 52 90 58 87 / 0 0 0 10
DULCE........................... 42 86 48 81 / 0 0 10 30
CUBA............................ 50 85 54 77 / 0 5 20 60
GALLUP.......................... 44 87 47 83 / 0 0 0 20
EL MORRO........................ 47 85 51 79 / 0 0 5 50
GRANTS.......................... 46 89 52 79 / 0 5 10 60
QUEMADO......................... 49 86 53 81 / 0 0 10 50
MAGDALENA....................... 57 86 62 78 / 0 20 40 90
DATIL........................... 50 85 54 75 / 0 10 20 80
RESERVE......................... 48 90 50 84 / 0 0 10 40
GLENWOOD........................ 54 93 56 88 / 0 5 10 40
CHAMA........................... 42 80 47 75 / 0 0 20 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 57 83 59 75 / 0 20 40 70
PECOS........................... 53 81 57 72 / 5 30 50 90
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 49 81 53 75 / 0 10 20 70
RED RIVER....................... 42 72 45 67 / 0 20 30 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 38 75 44 69 / 0 20 30 80
TAOS............................ 47 85 52 77 / 0 20 30 60
MORA............................ 48 78 51 70 / 5 30 50 80
ESPANOLA........................ 55 91 60 82 / 0 20 30 70
SANTA FE........................ 56 85 59 75 / 0 30 50 80
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 55 88 60 79 / 0 30 40 80
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 62 92 66 81 / 0 20 50 80
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 62 93 66 83 / 0 20 40 80
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 61 95 66 85 / 0 20 40 70
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 61 93 66 85 / 0 20 40 70
BELEN........................... 60 95 65 86 / 0 20 40 80
BERNALILLO...................... 61 95 65 84 / 0 20 40 70
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 59 94 64 85 / 0 20 40 70
CORRALES........................ 61 95 66 85 / 0 20 40 70
LOS LUNAS....................... 60 94 65 85 / 0 20 40 70
PLACITAS........................ 60 90 64 80 / 0 20 40 80
RIO RANCHO...................... 61 94 65 84 / 0 20 40 70
SOCORRO......................... 64 96 68 87 / 0 20 40 80
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 55 85 58 75 / 0 30 50 80
TIJERAS......................... 57 89 60 78 / 0 30 50 80
EDGEWOOD........................ 53 86 57 76 / 0 30 50 80
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 51 86 56 77 / 0 30 50 90
CLINES CORNERS.................. 55 79 56 71 / 5 30 60 90
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 56 85 58 76 / 0 30 50 90
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 56 84 57 77 / 5 40 60 90
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 85 62 78 / 10 50 60 90
RUIDOSO......................... 58 76 56 70 / 20 70 60 90
CAPULIN......................... 55 75 56 73 / 10 50 40 70
RATON........................... 54 80 55 76 / 5 40 30 70
SPRINGER........................ 56 82 58 78 / 5 40 40 80
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 80 56 72 / 10 30 60 80
CLAYTON......................... 63 82 61 79 / 20 50 50 40
ROY............................. 60 79 59 74 / 20 40 60 70
CONCHAS......................... 66 87 65 81 / 20 40 70 70
SANTA ROSA...................... 63 83 62 78 / 20 40 60 80
TUCUMCARI....................... 67 84 64 82 / 30 50 70 50
CLOVIS.......................... 67 82 65 83 / 50 60 60 30
PORTALES........................ 66 83 64 84 / 50 70 60 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 85 64 82 / 30 60 60 60
ROSWELL......................... 71 87 69 85 / 40 70 60 50
PICACHO......................... 63 83 62 77 / 30 70 60 80
ELK............................. 61 82 59 75 / 30 80 70 90
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...34
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