762
FXUS65 KABQ 231139 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
539 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 531 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2025
- THE POTENTIAL FOR CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING EXISTS EARLY THIS
WEEK, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY, ACROSS RECENT BURN SCARS. THIS
INCLUDES THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS AND HERMITS PEAK CALF
CANYON BURN SCAR.
- URBAN AND ARROYO FLASH FLOODING, INCLUDING THE ALBUQUERQUE AND
SANTA FE METROS IS LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
- SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE GRADUALLY LOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT
SLOW STORM MOTION WILL KEEP THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY ON RECENT BURN SCARS AND SATURATED SOILS, IN PLAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2025
THE CONCERN FOR DANGEROUS, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC, AND LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IN AND AROUND RUIDOSO CONTINUES TO GROW
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY JUST SOUTH OF THE BURN SCARS, BUT STORM
MOTION WILL TRACK STORMS NORTHWARD IN THIS AREA. BETWEEN 0.50" AND
1" OF RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY, THOUGH A REASONABLE WORST CASE
SCENARIO IS BETWEEN 1.25" AND 2" OF RAINFALL OVER THE BURN SCARS.
SOILS ARE PRIMED IN THIS AREA AND RUNOFF WILL BE EXCESSIVE. FLASH
FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF THE RUIDOSO AREA, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON AS MONSOON MOISTURE ADVECTS
NORTHWARD. ONLY SECONDARY TO THE RUIDOSO AREA, CONCERN EXISTS FOR
THE AREA NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF ROSWELL WHERE SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS
SHOW VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN TODAY. GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING YESTERDAY, RUNOFF IN THIS AREA WILL ALSO OCCUR QUICKLY.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL NM. GIVEN PWATS ARE IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THIS
AREA FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED 3 INCHES PER
HOUR. AS SUCH, HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AREA FROM NOON
TODAY THROUGH 6AM TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT,
SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND WET MICROBURSTS WITH
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING,
WITH SOME ACTIVITY PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE, WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CA CONTINUES TO DIG, MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL START TO MOVE UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. WEST OF THE
CONTDVD, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN EVEN RICHER SLUG OF MONSOON MOISTURE ARRIVES ON TUESDAY. NO AREA
WILL BE IMMUNE TO THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH FAR NORTHWEST NM HAS THE
LOWEST CHANCES. ANY PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EASILY
SET OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, EVEN AS EARLY AS SUNRISE
TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARS LATER IN THE DAY, MORE
WIDESPREAD ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NM. PWATS WILL BE ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE BETWEEN THE CONTDVD AND THE TEXAS BORDER,
THOUGH ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, 99TH PERCENTILE PWATS ARE
ANTICIPATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE COLUMN ACROSS CENTRAL NM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THUS STORMS
WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING RAINFALL. A LARGE FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM.
ACROSS THE RUIDOSO AREA, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH A REASONABLE WORSE
CASE SCENARIO UP TO 2.5 OR 3 INCHES. THIS FORECASTER CAN'T EXPRESS
ENOUGH THE DEEP CONCERN THAT EXISTS FOR THIS AREA. THE HERMITS
PEAK CALF CANYON BURN SCAR MAY ALSO SEE UPWARD OF 1.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ON TUESDAY, WITH REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIOS AROUND 2
INCHES. EVEN THE ABQ METRO COULD PICK UP 1-1.5 INCHES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2025
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A
VERY STRONG 595 TO 597 DAM 500 MB HIGH OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY, COMBINED WITH RECORD PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM, WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. STORM COVERAGE AND HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE RGV, CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN,
AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS WHERE THE PLUME OF HIGHER MONSOON MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE CENTERED. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM ON WEDNESDAY, WITH PWATS A TOUCH
LOWER AT AROUND 1 TO 1.4 INCHES. ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR
WEDNESDAY IS THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND RAINFALL RATES, AS THE
HIGHER CLOUD COVER CARRYING OVER FROM TUESDAY'S ACTIVITY AND COOL
TEMPERATURES COULD HELP LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY AND THUS HIGH
RAINFALL RATES. HOWEVER, THE LATEST RUN FROM THE NAM STILL SHOWS
SOME HEAVIER QPF OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. THE MAIN MESSAGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS URBAN AREAS AND ARROYOS.
DESTRUCTIVE TO CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING ON RECENT BURN SCARS,
INCLUDING THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS AND HPCC BURN SCAR, IS
BECOMING VERY LIKELY! AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM, A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD FOR THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING RUIDOSO, BUT FULLY EXPECT THIS
WATCH TO EXPAND TO OTHER ZONES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM, WITH
THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES BEING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
EASTERN HIGHLANDS ZONES AND ABQ AND SANTA FE METROS.
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO LOWER GRADUALLY ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT BASIN DAMPENS AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES QUASIZONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER, ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE (PWATS
RANGING FROM 0.7 TO 1.3 INCHES) WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS, KEEPING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE PRESENT. STORM MOTION WILL ALSO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME MORE
ERRATIC KEEPING A HIGHER RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THESE PARTS
OF THE STATE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOK TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE DESERT SW FOR THE WEEKEND, HELPING TO LOWER
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE EVEN MORE AND KEEP IT MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAIN RANGES AND SURROUNDING HIGHLANDS. WITH THE LOWER SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE AND CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS, TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE END OF
JUNE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2025
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NM THIS MORNING, INCLUDING AT KLVS. IT'S EXPECTED THAT MUCH OF
THIS SHOULD DIMINISH BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WET
MICROBURSTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
OVER 40KT AS WELL. STORMS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. AS MOISTURE IS PUSHED WESTWARD VIA OUTFLOW, STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING, INCLUDING AT KABQ AND KSAF. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING AS WELL.
MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND EXPAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2025
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES (<15%) WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN NM
TODAY, THOUGH SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE LESS COMMON. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AS A RICH PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE ARRIVES.
FOR TODAY, STORMS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN, THOUGH A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE DAY WITHIN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST NM WILL SEE THE LOWEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ELSEWHERE, SEVERAL AREAS WILL PICK UP 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT SEVERAL MAY SEE IN EXCESS
OF 4 INCHES. WHILE THE RAINFALL IS NEEDED, THE FAST AND FURIOUS
NATURE OF THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF BURN SCARS. THOUGH
STORM COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 90 58 88 59 / 0 5 10 20
DULCE........................... 86 49 82 49 / 0 10 30 30
CUBA............................ 86 55 79 53 / 5 20 60 50
GALLUP.......................... 86 48 83 50 / 0 0 20 10
EL MORRO........................ 85 54 79 53 / 5 5 60 30
GRANTS.......................... 89 53 81 52 / 10 10 70 40
QUEMADO......................... 86 55 82 55 / 5 5 60 30
MAGDALENA....................... 86 62 77 59 / 20 20 90 70
DATIL........................... 84 55 77 55 / 20 20 80 60
RESERVE......................... 89 52 88 51 / 5 5 30 30
GLENWOOD........................ 91 56 89 56 / 5 5 40 40
CHAMA........................... 80 47 77 47 / 5 20 50 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 83 59 75 57 / 10 30 80 70
PECOS........................... 84 56 73 54 / 30 40 90 80
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 82 53 78 52 / 10 20 70 60
RED RIVER....................... 72 45 67 45 / 20 30 80 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 74 45 69 43 / 40 30 80 70
TAOS............................ 85 53 79 52 / 10 20 70 60
MORA............................ 80 50 70 49 / 40 50 90 80
ESPANOLA........................ 91 60 83 59 / 10 30 70 60
SANTA FE........................ 86 60 77 57 / 20 30 90 80
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 89 60 80 57 / 20 30 80 80
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 92 66 81 64 / 20 30 90 80
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 93 68 82 63 / 10 30 80 80
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 95 66 84 62 / 10 30 80 80
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 94 66 83 63 / 10 30 80 70
BELEN........................... 94 65 85 61 / 20 30 80 80
BERNALILLO...................... 95 65 84 62 / 10 30 80 70
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 94 64 84 61 / 20 30 80 80
CORRALES........................ 95 66 85 62 / 10 30 80 70
LOS LUNAS....................... 94 65 85 61 / 20 30 80 80
PLACITAS........................ 91 64 78 62 / 10 30 80 80
RIO RANCHO...................... 93 65 84 63 / 10 30 80 70
SOCORRO......................... 96 68 84 64 / 20 30 80 80
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 86 58 76 56 / 20 40 90 80
TIJERAS......................... 88 60 78 58 / 20 40 90 80
EDGEWOOD........................ 87 57 76 55 / 20 30 80 80
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 88 56 76 53 / 30 40 90 80
CLINES CORNERS.................. 81 56 71 54 / 30 40 90 80
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 87 58 77 56 / 30 40 80 80
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 85 58 76 56 / 40 40 90 90
CARRIZOZO....................... 86 62 76 61 / 60 50 90 90
RUIDOSO......................... 80 57 66 55 / 90 60 100 80
CAPULIN......................... 75 56 75 54 / 50 50 70 50
RATON........................... 80 55 78 54 / 50 40 70 50
SPRINGER........................ 83 57 79 56 / 50 50 70 60
LAS VEGAS....................... 81 55 71 53 / 40 50 90 80
CLAYTON......................... 83 60 79 61 / 40 60 50 40
ROY............................. 82 58 73 58 / 40 60 80 70
CONCHAS......................... 90 64 81 63 / 60 70 80 70
SANTA ROSA...................... 87 63 77 61 / 60 60 90 80
TUCUMCARI....................... 86 65 82 64 / 60 70 70 60
CLOVIS.......................... 83 65 85 65 / 70 80 40 40
PORTALES........................ 85 65 86 65 / 70 80 40 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 88 64 82 63 / 70 70 80 60
ROSWELL......................... 90 69 85 68 / 80 80 60 50
PICACHO......................... 86 62 79 61 / 80 60 80 70
ELK............................. 85 59 76 58 / 80 60 90 70
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
NMZ235>240.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...34
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