547
FXUS65 KABQ 250557 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1157 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1149 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2025
- THE POTENTIAL FOR CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING EXISTS EARLY THIS
WEEK, INCLUDING TONIGHT, ACROSS RECENT BURN SCARS. THIS
INCLUDES THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS AND HERMITS PEAK CALF
CANYON BURN SCAR.
- URBAN AND ARROYO FLASH FLOODING, INCLUDING THE ALBUQUERQUE AND
SANTA FE METROS IS LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM AND
TONIGHT.
- SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE GRADUALLY LOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT
SLOW STORM MOTION WILL KEEP THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY ON RECENT BURN SCARS AND SATURATED SOILS, IN PLAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2025
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1-
3"/HR ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS, MAINLY NEAR
CLOVIS, THE HPCC BURN SCAR, AND THE ABQ METRO AREA. ISOLATED
STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL, GIVEN SUFFICIENT BULK
SHEAR NEAR 30KTS. HI-RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN CONGEALING INTO A MASS
AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL RGV AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS
EVENING. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE OUR SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND WHAT COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY TO POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND BURN SCARS. A
VERY INTERESTING FEATURE OF NOTE IS A DEVELOPING MCV ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND SHIFTING INTO EXTREME WEST TX. HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN
POOR TO DEPICT THIS AND THUS THE CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION IS LOW. CURRENTLY, THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE SCENARIO IS THIS MCV PROVIDES MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL LIFT
FOR THE AFORMENTIONED CONGEALED MASS OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY WORK
TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES AND AMOUNTS. THIS COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THIS HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING TO OCCUR IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE RUIDOSO BURN SCARS. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR THIS SCENARIO, FOLKS SHOULD BE PREPARED
AND HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS, ESPECIALLY WHILE
SLEEPING. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO PLAY OUT, SIGNIFICANT TO POTENTIALLY
CATASTROPHIC FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. WHAT
IS LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN THE RUIDOSO AREA SPECIFICALLY IS THE
HIGHEST HREF MEAN QPF REMAINING WEST OF THE BURN SCAR. OVERALL,
THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE REST OF THIS EVENT PLAYS OUT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT THE FAVORED SCENARIO IS DETAILED
ABOVE.
INTO WEDNESDAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH PWAT VALUES COME IN SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
TODAY (BY ABOUT 0.1-0.2"). A SIMILAR SETUP APPEARS LIKELY, WITH
STORMS DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVING EAST TO
NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM TODAY AND THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN NM OF UP TO 1", HAVE OPTED TO ADD
THE HPCC BURN SCAR TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TOMORROW. ADDITIONALLY,
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE RUIDOSO BURN SCAR,
BUT CONFIDENCE HAS LOWERED SLIGHTLY GIVEN TODAY'S DEVELOPMENTS.
NEVERTHELESS, ANY AREA ON AND OFF BURN SCARS WILL BE AT RISK FOR
FLOODING GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT HAS BEEN SEEN OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2025
VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
WEEK, WITH A TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND A HIGH TO OUR EAST. THIS SETS UP
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN, THOUGH
THIS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS BOTH THE
TROUGH AND HIGH WEAKEN. MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO STILL REMAIN AND BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE, AND WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW, SLOW
AND ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY. THIS INCREASES A FLASH
FLOOD RISK GIVEN THAT THESE STORMS MAY STAY OVER ONE AREA AND DROP
QUITE A BIT OF RAIN. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WEAK UPPER
LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING BACK WEST WILL BEGIN
TO DRIVE UP TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, RETURNING THEM TO NEAR JUNE
NORMALS. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD INTO AZ, WRAPPING
MOISTURE AROUND ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A BACKDOOR FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH INTO NORTHEAST NM EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY WORK TO INCREASE
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE REPLENISHING OF
MOISTURE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2025
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NM THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF COME THEN. MODERATE CHANCE
FOR SOME IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GETS GOING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVING INTO NEARBY LOWER
ELEVATIONS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS COALESCES INTO A LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL NM TAF SITES (KABQ, KAEG, AND KSAF) DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS,
INCLUDING KLVS, DURING THE MID EVENING HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME MVFR TO AT WORST IFR
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITHIN HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2025
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AREA.
HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS IN AND AROUND BURN AREAS MAY CREATE
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND FLOODING, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SIGNIFICANT.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
THOUGH DIMINISHING GRADUALLY EACH DAY. SLOWER STORM MOTIONS ARE
LIKELY LATER THIS WEEK, WHICH MAY INCREASE A FLASH FLOODING THREAT
UNDERNEATH STORMS THAT FORM, THOUGH THIS IS FAVORED TO BE MORE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
STATE THIS WEEKEND, RAISING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL. ISOLATED
SPOTS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN WESTERN NM
GIVEN LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. MOISTURE AND STORM COVERAGE BEGINS TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 59 87 53 90 / 30 10 0 0
DULCE........................... 47 81 42 85 / 40 20 5 0
CUBA............................ 53 79 50 83 / 60 40 10 10
GALLUP.......................... 48 84 44 87 / 30 10 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 52 81 49 83 / 50 30 5 10
GRANTS.......................... 51 81 47 86 / 50 40 10 10
QUEMADO......................... 53 81 52 84 / 40 30 10 20
MAGDALENA....................... 58 76 57 81 / 90 80 30 50
DATIL........................... 54 76 53 81 / 70 70 30 40
RESERVE......................... 50 88 48 88 / 40 30 10 20
GLENWOOD........................ 55 92 53 92 / 40 30 20 30
CHAMA........................... 45 75 43 79 / 60 30 5 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 57 75 56 79 / 80 60 10 20
PECOS........................... 54 73 53 77 / 90 70 20 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 76 49 80 / 80 50 10 20
RED RIVER....................... 45 67 41 70 / 80 50 10 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 71 36 74 / 80 60 10 30
TAOS............................ 52 78 47 83 / 80 40 10 20
MORA............................ 48 71 45 75 / 90 70 20 40
ESPANOLA........................ 58 82 55 87 / 80 50 10 20
SANTA FE........................ 57 77 56 81 / 90 60 20 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 57 79 55 84 / 90 50 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 63 82 63 87 / 90 60 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 63 83 62 88 / 80 60 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 63 86 61 91 / 80 60 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 84 62 89 / 80 50 20 10
BELEN........................... 60 85 59 88 / 90 60 30 20
BERNALILLO...................... 63 86 61 90 / 80 50 20 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 60 85 58 89 / 80 60 30 20
CORRALES........................ 63 86 61 91 / 80 50 20 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 61 85 60 89 / 90 60 30 20
PLACITAS........................ 61 82 61 86 / 90 60 20 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 63 85 61 90 / 80 50 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 64 84 63 89 / 90 80 40 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 56 76 55 81 / 90 70 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 58 79 57 82 / 90 70 30 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 55 77 52 80 / 90 70 30 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 78 49 81 / 90 70 30 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 72 53 76 / 90 70 30 40
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 56 76 54 80 / 90 70 40 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 56 75 55 79 / 80 80 50 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 60 76 60 80 / 80 80 50 70
RUIDOSO......................... 55 69 55 72 / 80 90 50 80
CAPULIN......................... 54 73 51 77 / 80 60 30 40
RATON........................... 54 77 51 81 / 80 60 20 30
SPRINGER........................ 57 77 53 82 / 80 60 20 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 73 50 78 / 90 70 20 40
CLAYTON......................... 61 78 59 83 / 60 30 20 30
ROY............................. 58 72 57 79 / 80 60 20 30
CONCHAS......................... 63 79 61 85 / 80 70 30 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 75 59 82 / 80 70 30 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 63 79 61 85 / 70 50 30 30
CLOVIS.......................... 65 81 63 86 / 40 40 30 30
PORTALES........................ 65 82 63 86 / 40 40 30 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 63 77 61 85 / 80 70 30 40
ROSWELL......................... 68 81 66 88 / 70 70 30 50
PICACHO......................... 61 75 58 79 / 80 80 40 70
ELK............................. 57 74 56 77 / 80 90 50 80
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NMZ207-208-211>225-
227>229-232>241.
FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ214-215-229.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77
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