086
FXUS65 KABQ 251117 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
517 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 513 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2025
- THE POTENTIAL FOR CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING EXISTS THROUGH MID
WEEK FOR THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS AND HERMITS PEAK CALF
CANYON BURN SCAR.
- URBAN AND ARROYO FLASH FLOODING, INCLUDING THE ALBUQUERQUE AND
SANTA FE METROS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM AND
TONIGHT.
- SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE GRADUALLY LOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT
SLOW STORM MOTION WILL KEEP THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY ON RECENT BURN SCARS AND SATURATED SOILS, IN PLAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2025
AN MCV EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE POTENT AND BROAD UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS KEEPING AN AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF AROUND MID MORNING AS THE
MCV DAMPENS OUT AND EXITS NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.
A SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC SETUP AND STORM EVOLUTION COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PWATS A TOUCH LOWER
COMPARED TO TODAY, 1 TO 1.3 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL NM AND 1.2 TO 1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MORE CLEARING WILL BE PRESENT THIS
MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NM DUE TO DRIER AIR ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS MOISTURE
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WILL
HELP IN STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AROUND MIDDAY
MOVING EAST WITH TIME INTO THE RGV COME THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS DURING LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ACTIVITY LINGERING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NM THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE MOSTLY DIMINISHING AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO
ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY'S STORMS, PWAT VALUES STILL
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE JUNE, AND EXPECTED RAINFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 3" PER HOUR, A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ZONES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, EASTWARD TO THE RGV, CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND CHAVES
COUNTY FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT TODAY. LOOKING SPECIFICALLY AT THE
RUIDOSO AREA, GUIDANCE DEPICTS STORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING MIDDAY OVER
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING. IF A WINDOW OF CLEARING MATERIALIZES LATE MORNING, THIS
WILL MORE LIKELY HAPPEN. AFTER A POTENTIAL BREAK DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, THE ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM
AND THE RGV TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE RUIDOSO AREA AROUND TO JUST AFTER
SUNSET BUT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR THURSDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, SOUTHERN CA,
AND WESTERN AZ DAMPENS OUT. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NM WITH PWATS DROPPING BELOW HALF AN INCH
THERE. PWATS GREATER THAN 0.7 INCHES LOOK TO BE PRESENT ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-40 AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-25. WITH THIS, SHOWER AND
STORM COVERAGE WILL LOOK TO FAVOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM WITH
STORMS STARTING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
MIDDAY WITH VERY SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION TO THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL STILL EXIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS, INCLUDING THE
RUIDOSO AREA, WHERE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2025
WINDS ALOFT WILL RELAX AND PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE GOING
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. PWATS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DOWNTREND DURING THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NM. THE RESULT WILL BE A
DOWNTREND IN DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY.
SLOW STORM MOTION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD THREAT, MAINLY ON THE HPCC AND RUIDOSO AREA
BURN SCARS. BY SUNDAY, THE UPPER HIGH CENTROID WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 593DAM AT 500MB AND BE OVER GALLUP. DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
TO THE BURN SCARS. THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
NORTH INTO UT/CO FROM EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
TREND BACK UP ACROSS NM AND RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF
DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND DOWN AS A RESULT AND BE BACK BELOW NORMAL MOST AREAS BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2025
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MVFR TO
LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS WITH SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF COME
THEN. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS,
INCLUDING KRTN AND KLVS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND MIST. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GETS GOING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVING INTO NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
COALESCES INTO A LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NM TAF SITES
(KABQ, KAEG, AND KSAF) DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS, INCLUDING KLVS, DURING THE
MID EVENING HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME MVFR TO AT WORST IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS WITHIN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. SKIES CLEAR ACROSS
CENTRAL SITES OVERNIGHT WITH BROKEN MID LEVEL AND A FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 157 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2025
HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES WILL KEEP THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN PLAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS URBAN AREAS AND IN AND AROUND RECENT BURN SCARS,
INCLUDING THE HPCC BURN SCAR AND RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS. THOUGH
STORM COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS, DUE TO SLOW AND ERRATIC
STORM MOTION. THE LOWEST STORM COVERAGE OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES HEAT BACK
UP TO AROUND AVERAGE AS A RESULT. SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE
INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS WEST OVER ARIZONA AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT RECHARGES OVERALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE HIGH LOOKS
TO SHIFT EAST TO TEXAS MID NEXT WEEK DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
FORMING ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST. HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL BE THE
END RESULT OF THIS PATTERN IN THE DAYS LEADING INTO THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 87 53 90 56 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 82 43 85 41 / 10 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 80 50 83 54 / 40 10 5 5
GALLUP.......................... 85 45 88 46 / 5 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 80 49 83 52 / 20 5 5 5
GRANTS.......................... 81 47 87 49 / 40 10 10 5
QUEMADO......................... 81 52 83 53 / 30 10 10 10
MAGDALENA....................... 76 57 83 58 / 80 30 50 20
DATIL........................... 77 52 83 53 / 60 30 30 10
RESERVE......................... 89 49 86 49 / 30 10 20 20
GLENWOOD........................ 93 54 89 55 / 30 10 30 20
CHAMA........................... 75 44 78 44 / 20 0 5 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 75 56 80 58 / 50 20 20 10
PECOS........................... 75 52 77 54 / 70 20 40 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 78 49 79 51 / 40 10 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 68 42 69 43 / 40 10 20 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 70 37 73 37 / 50 10 30 20
TAOS............................ 78 48 82 48 / 30 10 10 10
MORA............................ 72 46 72 46 / 60 20 40 20
ESPANOLA........................ 83 55 85 56 / 40 20 10 10
SANTA FE........................ 77 56 81 58 / 60 20 20 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 80 55 84 56 / 60 20 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 83 62 87 65 / 60 20 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 84 62 89 64 / 60 20 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 86 61 91 63 / 60 20 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 85 62 89 64 / 60 20 10 10
BELEN........................... 85 59 90 60 / 60 30 20 10
BERNALILLO...................... 86 61 90 62 / 60 20 10 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 85 59 90 60 / 60 30 20 10
CORRALES........................ 86 61 90 63 / 60 20 10 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 84 59 91 61 / 60 30 20 10
PLACITAS........................ 83 60 88 63 / 60 20 20 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 85 61 89 63 / 60 20 10 10
SOCORRO......................... 85 62 91 64 / 80 30 40 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 77 55 82 56 / 60 20 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 79 57 83 58 / 60 30 30 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 78 52 81 53 / 60 30 30 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 78 49 82 50 / 70 30 40 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 72 54 78 54 / 70 30 40 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 77 55 81 55 / 70 40 40 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 75 55 82 55 / 70 40 60 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 77 60 82 61 / 80 40 70 20
RUIDOSO......................... 70 54 74 54 / 80 40 80 30
CAPULIN......................... 73 51 78 51 / 70 30 40 30
RATON........................... 78 51 83 51 / 60 20 30 20
SPRINGER........................ 78 53 84 52 / 70 20 30 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 73 51 75 51 / 70 30 40 20
CLAYTON......................... 77 59 84 59 / 50 30 30 20
ROY............................. 73 56 81 56 / 70 30 30 20
CONCHAS......................... 79 61 87 61 / 80 30 40 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 75 60 85 59 / 80 30 40 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 77 61 86 61 / 70 30 30 30
CLOVIS.......................... 79 64 85 63 / 60 40 40 30
PORTALES........................ 80 63 87 63 / 60 40 50 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 78 62 86 61 / 80 30 50 30
ROSWELL......................... 80 67 89 66 / 80 30 50 30
PICACHO......................... 76 60 83 59 / 90 40 80 30
ELK............................. 76 57 80 56 / 90 40 80 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NMZ207-
208-212-214-215-218>225-229-233-238>241.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...71
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