205
FXUS65 KABQ 262055
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
255 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 253 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2025
- SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE GRADUALLY LOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT
SLOW STORM MOTION WILL KEEP THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING GOING,
MAINLY ON RECENT BURN SCARS.
- ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES IN FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
JULY, RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND
AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE
FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2025
MORE MONSOON-LIKE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NM AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS. SLOW AND ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS HAVE RAISED CONCERNS FOR
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE RUIDOSO BURN SCAR AREAS. WITH
THE 12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWING TWO INVERSIONS BELOW 500MB (AND QUITE
THE DRY LAYER ABOVE), THERE WAS QUESTION HOW LONG STORMS WOULD BE
ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. RAP SOUNDINGS HINTED AT THESE INVERSIONS
ERODING BY 1-2PM, WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN THE CASE AS THESE
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES A BIT LONGER THAN 30MINS.
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN,
THEN DRIFT EAST TO SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN NM LATER THIS EVENING.
MINIMAL FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXISTS OUTSIDE OF BURN SCAR AREAS, THOUGH
AREAS IN SOUTHEAST NM THAT HAVE SEEN SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL THIS WEEK
WILL NOT NEED A LOT OF RAINFALL TO BEGIN TO SEE PROBLEMS. ANY STORM
PARKING ITSELF OVER AN AREA AND REFUSING TO BUDGE WILL ALSO INCREASE
A FLASH FLOOD RISK AT ANY LOCATION. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO CEASE BY 9PM WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, WITH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POTENTIALLY STICKING AROUND EASTERN NM THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. FRIDAY SHOWS A VERY SIMILAR SETUP WITH MONSOON-LIKE
SHOWERS FORMING OVER SOUTHERN NM AND OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. COVERAGE IS FAVORED TO BE EVEN LESS OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF NM DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
STATE, BUT THE SOUTHERN HALF IS MORE LIKELY LOOKING AT A NEAR CARBON
COPY TO TODAY IN TERMS OF DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN WHAT HAS OCCURRED TODAY
AND THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW, ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, WHICH IS DIRECTED
TOWARDS THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2025
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME THE LOWEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
DURING THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN, INCLUDING AREAS IN
AND AROUND BURN SCARS. A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE
JUNE/EARLY AUGUST. THIS REMAINS SOMEWHAT SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
JUST OFF THE COAST OF CA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY,
THE SETUP OF THIS FEATURE BEGINS TO SEND MOISTURE AROUND THE AXIS OF
THE HIGH, EVENTUALLY DELIVERING IT INTO NM FROM THE NORTH. THIS
MOISTURE ALSO BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MONDAY,
BRINGING AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM. ALSO WITH THIS, MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN KEEN ON THIS
BACKDOOR FRONT PRODUCING A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND IN THE ABQ METRO
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK, THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS BACK EAST OVER CENTRAL TO
EASTERN CONUS WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RESIDES OVER WESTERN
CONUS. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER INFLUX OF MONSOON MOISTURE
RIGHT AROUND THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FROM THIS
INITIAL BLAST OF MOISTURE, AN INCREASING THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ON BURN SCAR AREAS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST NM. TO TAF SITES, EASTERN NM
TERMINALS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED, THOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY
HIGH ENOUGH AT KTCC TO PLACE A TEMPO FROM 00Z TO 04Z. KLVS AND KROW
MAINTAIN PROB30S FOR TS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED IN ANY THUNDERSTORM, AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. OF ALL TERMINALS IN THE STATE, KSRR SHOWS THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON ITS
PROXIMITY TO A COMMON INITIATION POINT WITH THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS, WITH A TIMEFRAME OF 18Z TO 03Z. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
EXIT THE STATE BETWEEN 04-06Z, WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS REMAINING
ACROSS EASTERN NM OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN, MOVING SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY AROUND. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THESE STORMS, ENHANCING THE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY AROUND BURN SCARS. FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE MUCH
OF THE SAME, WITH JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. AREAS WEST OF I-25 AND
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 ARE VERY LIKELY TO SEE NO PRECIPITATION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, RAISING
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL AND LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ISOLATED
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NM
THIS WEEKEND AS HUMIDITY VALUES DIP INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE
DIGITS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK, AND A BACKDOOR
FRONT ON MONDAY WILL HELP INCREASE STORM COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE. STORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE AS
A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON SETUP OCCURS AROUND THE FOURTH OF JULY
HOLIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 53 92 56 93 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 45 88 43 89 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 52 86 53 88 / 0 5 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 43 89 48 91 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 50 85 53 86 / 0 5 0 5
GRANTS.......................... 46 88 50 89 / 5 10 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 54 84 55 88 / 10 10 5 5
MAGDALENA....................... 56 84 60 87 / 10 30 10 20
DATIL........................... 51 83 56 85 / 20 20 10 10
RESERVE......................... 53 90 50 94 / 10 10 5 5
GLENWOOD........................ 59 94 55 98 / 10 20 5 10
CHAMA........................... 45 81 46 83 / 0 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 57 82 59 85 / 0 10 5 10
PECOS........................... 50 82 56 85 / 10 20 10 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 50 83 53 85 / 0 10 5 10
RED RIVER....................... 41 73 44 75 / 0 10 0 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 36 77 38 78 / 5 20 5 20
TAOS............................ 52 86 48 88 / 0 10 5 10
MORA............................ 46 80 48 83 / 10 20 5 20
ESPANOLA........................ 56 90 57 93 / 0 10 5 5
SANTA FE........................ 54 85 59 87 / 5 20 10 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 54 88 57 90 / 5 10 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 65 91 66 93 / 5 10 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 63 92 64 95 / 5 10 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 61 94 63 97 / 5 10 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 61 92 65 96 / 5 10 10 0
BELEN........................... 59 93 61 96 / 5 10 10 0
BERNALILLO...................... 59 94 63 96 / 5 10 10 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 57 93 60 96 / 5 10 10 0
CORRALES........................ 59 94 63 97 / 5 10 10 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 58 93 61 96 / 5 10 10 0
PLACITAS........................ 60 90 63 92 / 5 10 10 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 60 93 63 96 / 5 10 10 0
SOCORRO......................... 61 93 65 96 / 10 20 10 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 54 85 57 88 / 5 10 10 5
TIJERAS......................... 57 87 59 89 / 5 10 10 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 55 85 52 88 / 5 20 10 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 50 86 49 89 / 10 20 10 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 53 80 54 83 / 20 30 20 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 54 84 56 88 / 10 20 20 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 55 82 55 86 / 20 30 20 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 60 83 62 88 / 20 40 20 20
RUIDOSO......................... 54 75 56 80 / 30 60 20 40
CAPULIN......................... 52 81 52 83 / 20 20 5 20
RATON........................... 54 85 51 86 / 20 20 0 20
SPRINGER........................ 56 87 51 88 / 20 20 5 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 50 82 52 85 / 10 30 10 20
CLAYTON......................... 61 88 61 89 / 30 10 10 5
ROY............................. 59 84 57 86 / 20 20 10 10
CONCHAS......................... 63 91 62 94 / 40 20 10 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 87 60 91 / 30 20 10 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 62 88 63 90 / 40 10 10 0
CLOVIS.......................... 64 88 65 91 / 30 10 10 5
PORTALES........................ 63 89 65 93 / 30 20 10 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 63 89 63 93 / 20 20 10 10
ROSWELL......................... 66 92 67 95 / 20 20 10 10
PICACHO......................... 61 85 60 89 / 30 50 20 30
ELK............................. 57 82 57 87 / 30 70 20 40
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ226-240.
FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77
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