776
FXUS65 KABQ 270753
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
153 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 113 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2025
- SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE GRADUALLY LOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT
SLOW STORM MOTION WILL KEEP THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING GOING,
MAINLY ON RECENT BURN SCARS.
- ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES IN FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
JULY, RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND
AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE
FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME BISECTS THE STATE PER THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH A DRIER AIRMASS GRADUALLY TAKING HOLD
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OR SO. AN UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGH CENTROID OVER GALLUP
AROUND 592DAM AT 500MB BY LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING HOTTER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS TO MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AND ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE AZ BORDER, WHILE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NM FOR ROUNDS OF DAYTIME HEATING
TRIGGERED CONVECTION. A HIGH THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAINS FOR
THE RUIDOSO AREA TODAY, WITH THE LATEST CAMS INITIATING CONVECTION
OVER THE SCARS BETWEEN 12-1PM AND THEN EXPANDING AND MOVING VERY
SLOWLY THROUGH 4PM. GIVEN THE VERY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND THE
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING YESTERDAY, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING TODAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
IN THE RUIDOSO AREA DECREASES SOME SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR ROTATES
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION, LEADING TO A DOWNTREND IN PWATS
AND A DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
STILL BE NEEDED FOR THE RUIDOSO AREA ON SATURDAY AND WILL LEAVE THAT
DECISION FOR LATER SHIFTS GIVEN MORE RECENT RUNS OF THE CAMS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THE MONSOON HIGH WILL STAY OVER OR NEAR NM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE ANOTHER WEAK PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO CA.
PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL STAY RATHER SUBDUED WITH 500 MB READINGS
HOVERING BETWEEN 590-593 DECAMETERS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
REDUCING MORE INTO WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL REDUCE SUBSIDENCE, BUT DRIER AIR WILL HAVE SETTLED IN ON
SUNDAY, AND MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO BE RE-ESTABLISHED. THIS LOOKS TO
HAPPEN, NOT NECESSARILY AS A SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE
WEST AND THE BERMUDA HIGH LIKE EARLIER THIS WEEK, BUT RATHER THE
MONSOON HIGH WILL BE AT WORK. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY
HAVE TO WRAP ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON HIGH TO ENTER
NM FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST, AND A FAINT SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
ASSIST WITH THIS AS EARLY AS MONDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND PWATS
WOULD RISE CONSIDERABLY OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES MONDAY
BEFORE EXPANDING WESTARD INTO TUESDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. BY THURSDAY, THE MONSOON HIGH MAY BE ERODED ENOUGH WITH THE
INGESTION OF THE PACIFIC LOW THAT A BRIEF SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
BRINGS UP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE LOOKS FLEETING AND BRIEF, BUT THE SOURCE REGION WOULD BE
RICH WITH MOISTURE FROM POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT UPPER
LEVEL WIND COMPONENT, THE MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO BE MUCH RICHER
OVER NM LATE NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO NUMEROUS STORMS AND BETTER ODDS
FOR SOAKING RAINFALL. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE PWATS
CLIMBING CLOSE TO 1.0 INCH IN CENTRAL NM BY TUESDSAY AND STAYING
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THEREAFTER, THE 4 TO 8 DAY (TUESDAY TO
FRIDAY) PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTIONS FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ALSO
LOOK REASONABLE WITH THE FOUR CORNERS SHOWCASING THE LOWER MEAN
QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.1 TO 0.5 INCH AND MOST REMAINING AREAS BETWEEN
0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN RANGES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST, WITH PATCHES
OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS/FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
NM. HOWEVER, MVFR PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY IMPACT KLVS, KTCC AND KROW WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
LIGHT OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 113 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THE 2025 NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON IS IN FULL SWING AND THERE ARE NO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE REPLACED
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS FROM
MID THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN, A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NM EACH AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 92 55 94 56 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 87 44 90 46 / 0 0 5 0
CUBA............................ 86 54 88 54 / 0 0 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 90 47 91 48 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 85 51 88 53 / 10 0 5 0
GRANTS.......................... 88 50 90 51 / 10 5 10 0
QUEMADO......................... 86 54 89 55 / 10 10 10 0
MAGDALENA....................... 84 60 86 60 / 30 10 10 5
DATIL........................... 83 55 86 55 / 30 20 20 5
RESERVE......................... 90 49 94 52 / 20 10 10 0
GLENWOOD........................ 93 55 97 57 / 30 10 10 0
CHAMA........................... 81 47 83 47 / 0 0 10 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 83 59 86 61 / 10 10 10 0
PECOS........................... 82 56 86 55 / 30 20 20 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 82 53 85 51 / 10 0 20 0
RED RIVER....................... 73 45 76 42 / 20 5 20 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 76 37 79 34 / 20 10 20 0
TAOS............................ 85 50 88 50 / 5 5 10 0
MORA............................ 79 49 83 49 / 30 10 20 5
ESPANOLA........................ 89 57 93 59 / 10 5 10 0
SANTA FE........................ 84 60 88 59 / 20 10 10 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 88 57 91 58 / 20 10 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 89 66 92 67 / 20 10 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 91 64 94 68 / 10 10 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 92 63 96 62 / 10 10 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 92 65 94 65 / 10 10 5 0
BELEN........................... 92 60 94 62 / 10 10 5 5
BERNALILLO...................... 92 63 95 63 / 10 10 5 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 92 60 95 61 / 10 10 5 0
CORRALES........................ 93 64 95 63 / 10 10 5 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 92 62 94 62 / 10 10 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 89 64 92 64 / 10 10 10 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 92 64 94 65 / 10 10 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 91 65 94 66 / 20 20 5 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 84 57 87 59 / 20 10 10 5
TIJERAS......................... 86 60 89 60 / 20 10 10 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 85 53 88 56 / 20 10 20 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 86 51 90 51 / 30 20 20 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 80 55 85 56 / 30 20 20 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 82 56 86 57 / 30 20 20 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 82 55 85 57 / 40 30 20 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 80 61 85 63 / 50 30 20 10
RUIDOSO......................... 72 55 78 54 / 70 30 50 10
CAPULIN......................... 82 52 84 52 / 30 20 20 5
RATON........................... 86 52 88 52 / 20 20 20 5
SPRINGER........................ 87 53 89 52 / 30 20 10 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 80 52 85 53 / 30 20 10 5
CLAYTON......................... 86 61 90 61 / 20 20 10 10
ROY............................. 84 57 86 57 / 30 30 10 5
CONCHAS......................... 90 62 94 63 / 20 30 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 87 61 91 61 / 30 30 10 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 87 62 92 63 / 20 20 10 10
CLOVIS.......................... 85 65 89 65 / 20 20 10 20
PORTALES........................ 87 65 90 66 / 20 20 10 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 87 64 92 64 / 20 20 10 10
ROSWELL......................... 87 67 94 68 / 30 20 10 10
PICACHO......................... 81 61 88 61 / 60 20 30 10
ELK............................. 77 58 84 59 / 70 30 40 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...11
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