818
FXUS65 KABQ 300741
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
141 AM MDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1231 AM MDT MON JUN 30 2025
- ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURNS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
GREATER COVERAGES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THESE WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY OVER RECENT BURN SCARS.
- DRIER AIR SWEEPS IN BY THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY AND SATURDAY,
LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES RISE AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT MON JUN 30 2025
A MOIST OUTFLOW FROM STORMS IN EASTERN NM WAS SENT WESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE LAST EVENING WITH ANOTHER ONE WORKING
ITS WAY IN EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS PRODUCED GUSTY EAST CANYON
WINDS IN ABQ AND OTHER CENTRALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BEFORE
SUNRISE WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS SURGE UPWARD TOWARD THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND BEYOND. THIS WILL BOOST PWATS, AND
EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP FUEL A MORE ROBUST CROP OF
STORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SECONDARILY, ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON THE EAST FACES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, MAINLY IN
WESTERN TO SOUTHWESTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE MONSOON HIGH
POISED JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS, STORMS WILL TEND TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD AT SLOW PACES. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR TRAINING CELLS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS THEY MOVE PARALLEL TO THE MOUNTAIN
SUB RANGES. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH CONSENSUS AMONG CAMS WITH REGARDS
TO QPF IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY HIGHLANDS, SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE EXPANDED THIS MORNING.
SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER EAST CENTRAL NM AND ANY OUTFLOWS
THAT PROPAGATE THAT FAR EAST WILL ALSO HELP SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOP. MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS ARE MODELED TO WORK SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NM THIS EVENING, AND A FEW
STRAY STRONG CELLS MAY EVEN REGENERATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BATCHES OF
WEAKER SHOWERS AND STRATIFORM RAIN WILL ALSO LIKELY SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES OVER SOUTHEAST NM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE NUMEROUS
STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND SURROUNDING AREAS WILL
KEEP EASTERLY WINDS PUSHING INTO THE RIO GRANDE ONWARD TO THE AZ
BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS SURGING THROUGH GAPS AND
CANYONS. THIS WILL HELP PUSH MOISTURE WESTWARD WHILE DEEPENING IT
TO MORE THAN JUST AT THE LOW SURFACE LAYER. THE SHOWERS AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER FROM TUESDAY MORNING MAY LINGER IN EASTERN
AND CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, KEEPING MUCH COOLER AND
SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THAT COULD THROW A WRENCH INTO
BOTH THE TEMPERATURE AND POP FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY, HIGH POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA,
BUT THIS MAY PERIODICALLY CONSIST OF MORE STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION WITH LOWER RAIN RATES. FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WOULD SEEM TO FIND
THEIR WAY TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR MORE TRADITIONAL AND
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT MON JUN 30 2025
BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER HIGH WILL NOT BE AS WELL-DEFINED, AND A
WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INLAND OVER CA. THIS WILL START TO
SHIFT STORM MOTIONS BACK TOWARD THE NORTH WHILE PLENTY OF HIGH
PWATS REMAIN (0.9 TO 1.4 INCH). MORE INSTABILITY IS ADVERTISED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND STORMS SHOULD INITIATE RATHER EASILY OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE NUMEROUS CELLS ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR
THURSDAY, FORECAST MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THE CA
LOW, DRAGGING THE REMNANTS OF IT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL NOT ONLY ADD MORE OF AN
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ALOFT, CARRYING STORMS MORE
EASTBOUND, BUT IT WILL ALSO BRING A SWATH OF DRIER AIR ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE. THIS INTERFACE OF THE DRY/MOIST AIR NEAR THE
AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR STRONGER STORMS,
AND THE EVOLUTION, TRACK, AND SPEED WILL CERTAINLY WARRANT CLOSE
ATTENTION FOR THURSDAY'S STORM COVERAGE AND CHARACTERIZATION.
OTHERWISE, HIGH TERRAIN AREAS SHOULD AGAIN FARE ACTIVE WITH
NUMEROUS CELLS THAT WILL SPAWN LESS COVERAGE INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS
AND PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING.
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR FEEDING INTO NM ON THE BACKSIDE OF THURSDAY'S
WAVE, CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE MUCH MORE ON FRIDAY WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN STORM COVERAGE. THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR MOST
OF THE STATE AGAIN ON SATURDAY, BUT A WEAK MOIST, BACKDOOR FRONT
IS STILL PROGGED TO INFILTRATE FAR NORTHEASTERN NM WHERE STORMS
WOULD INITIATE ALONG THE SURFACE/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE. THESE
NORTHEAST STORMS WOULD LIKELY REPEAT THE SCENARIO, SHOVING
MOISTURE SOUTHWESTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SETTING SUNDAY UP FOR
AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, IF NOT
EVEN TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT MON JUN 30 2025
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ROAM EASTERN NM AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS LINGERING OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NM WILL TAPER OFF THRU THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CIGS PERSISTING THRU MID MORNING. GAP WINDS WILL WEAKEN
AS WELL IN THE RGV WITH SPEEDS BELOW 20KT EXPECTED AT KABQ BEFORE
SUNRISE. A MORE VIGOROUS CROP OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN AROUND NOON MONDAY THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THRU
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPAWN ADDITIONAL STORMS IN NEARBY
VALLEYS AND PLAINS ON STRONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. DIRECT HITS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVY RAINFALL. A LARGE AREA
OF STORMS EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING WITHIN CENTRAL NM IS LIKELY TO
MERGE WITH STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NM INTO A BROAD AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED TS THRU MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR LOW CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EAST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT MON JUN 30 2025
YESTERDAY'S ABYSMALLY DRY AND LOW RH IN WESTERN NM WILL BE
CONTRASTED BY MUCH BETTER RECOVERIES THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE
KEEPS SURGING IN FROM THE EAST. AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WILL STILL OBSERVE LOW HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON, DROPPING
BELOW 10 TO 15 PERCENT, BUT TO THE EAST MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITY AND
MORE DEVELOPMENT OF SOAKING THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY. INTO
TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CARRY ON, PRIMARILY OVER
EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NM WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE GETTING
SENT WESTWARD AGAIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES FOR TUESDAY MORNING. STORMS ON TUESDAY WOULD HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE OVER FAR WESTERN AREAS OF THE STATE (EXCEPT FAR
NORTHWEST) WHILE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WITH SHOWERY/RAINY CONDITIONS PERSISTING MUCH OF
THE DAY. AFTER ANOTHER MOIST AND HIGH HUMIDITY RECOVERY MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY, A STORMY AFTERNOON WILL FOLLOW WITH THE PATTERN
REPEATING INTO THURSDAY, LEAVING MANY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOCALES
WITH WETTING RAINFALL FOR AT LEAST ONE DAY OF THIS STRETCH, IF
NOT MORE. DRIER AIR LOOKS TO SWEEP INTO NM BY FRIDAY, LIMITING THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL COME BACK TO
THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY VIA A BACKDOOR FRONT, EVENTUALLY
SPREADING FARTHER WEST INTO SUNDAY WITH STORMS AND WETTING
RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN. WIND CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. MOST
GUSTY SURGES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT SUSTAINED PERIODS OF GUSTY
CONDTIONS WILL PERSIST, ESPECIALLY TODAY AND TONIGHT, DOWNWIND
(WEST) OF GAPS AND CANYONS WITHIN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 96 63 91 62 / 10 5 10 20
DULCE........................... 89 47 83 47 / 40 20 40 20
CUBA............................ 87 53 80 53 / 50 30 30 20
GALLUP.......................... 93 54 87 53 / 5 10 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 88 53 81 53 / 20 20 40 30
GRANTS.......................... 90 53 82 53 / 30 20 30 30
QUEMADO......................... 91 56 84 56 / 30 20 50 40
MAGDALENA....................... 87 58 78 59 / 60 50 50 40
DATIL........................... 85 53 78 55 / 50 40 50 40
RESERVE......................... 96 53 88 53 / 30 20 50 40
GLENWOOD........................ 98 58 90 58 / 40 20 60 40
CHAMA........................... 81 45 76 45 / 60 20 60 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 82 56 75 56 / 60 40 70 30
PECOS........................... 80 53 72 53 / 70 60 70 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 80 49 75 50 / 70 40 60 20
RED RIVER....................... 70 42 66 43 / 80 40 60 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 73 40 68 40 / 80 50 60 20
TAOS............................ 83 49 77 50 / 60 40 50 20
MORA............................ 76 48 69 47 / 80 60 70 30
ESPANOLA........................ 89 56 82 57 / 60 30 50 20
SANTA FE........................ 83 56 75 56 / 60 50 60 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 87 56 79 56 / 60 50 50 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 89 62 83 63 / 60 50 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 91 63 84 63 / 60 50 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 93 63 87 64 / 60 50 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 92 62 85 63 / 60 40 30 20
BELEN........................... 94 61 85 62 / 50 40 20 30
BERNALILLO...................... 93 62 86 62 / 60 50 30 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 93 60 86 61 / 50 40 20 30
CORRALES........................ 93 62 86 63 / 60 50 30 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 94 62 86 63 / 50 40 20 30
PLACITAS........................ 88 61 82 61 / 60 50 40 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 90 62 85 63 / 60 40 30 20
SOCORRO......................... 96 64 86 65 / 50 40 40 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 83 55 75 55 / 60 50 40 30
TIJERAS......................... 87 57 79 58 / 60 50 40 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 86 53 76 53 / 60 60 50 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 87 52 76 53 / 60 60 60 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 78 52 69 53 / 60 60 60 40
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 85 54 75 55 / 60 60 50 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 85 55 75 54 / 60 60 60 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 87 60 79 59 / 50 50 70 40
RUIDOSO......................... 78 54 69 54 / 70 40 90 40
CAPULIN......................... 73 52 71 53 / 70 50 40 20
RATON........................... 78 53 76 53 / 70 50 40 20
SPRINGER........................ 82 54 76 54 / 70 60 50 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 78 51 71 52 / 70 60 60 30
CLAYTON......................... 81 59 77 59 / 50 50 30 20
ROY............................. 80 56 73 57 / 70 70 50 30
CONCHAS......................... 88 61 78 61 / 60 70 60 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 85 59 74 59 / 60 60 60 50
TUCUMCARI....................... 85 60 77 61 / 60 70 60 50
CLOVIS.......................... 86 62 78 62 / 60 70 80 60
PORTALES........................ 87 62 80 62 / 60 70 80 60
FORT SUMNER..................... 89 61 79 61 / 60 60 70 50
ROSWELL......................... 91 66 81 66 / 50 70 70 50
PICACHO......................... 86 60 76 60 / 60 60 80 50
ELK............................. 84 56 74 57 / 70 50 80 40
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NMZ212-
214-215-218-221>224-226-229-239.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...42
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page