865
FXUS65 KABQ 021835
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1235 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1136 AM MDT WED JUL 2 2025
- MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WILL
BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE RISK
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY OVER AREA BURN
SCARS.
- DRIER AIR SWEEPS IN BY THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY AND SATURDAY,
LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES RISE SUNDAY GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT WED JUL 2 2025
AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE AREA IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT
OF NM OVERNIGHT AND BE REPLACED WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A PACIFIC LOW, CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CA PER THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR, FILLS AND MOVES EAST INTO AZ. DRIER AIR ALOFT
ROTATING AROUND THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA THURSDAY
AND RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THIS, ALONG WITH
MORE FAVORABLE VEERING WIND PROFILES, INSTABILITY GENERATED BY
DAYTIME HEATING AND ADDED FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
(FORMERLY THE PACIFIC LOW) WILL ADD UP TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR
STORMS, WITH SOME POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG. BURN SCAR FLASH
FLOODING WILL STILL BE A CONCERN THURSDAY, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN INITIAL STORM MOTION WILL BE
CROSS-BASIN ON THE HPCC SCAR AND FORCING WILL BE LESS IMPRESSIVE
FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE RUIDOSO AREA SCARS. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER
AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NM WHERE FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL RESIDE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT WED JUL 2 2025
PWATS WILL TREND DOWN DRAMATICALLY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY AS A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A
MONSOON HIGH BUILDS OVER NM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EXPECT A
SIGNIFICANT DOWNTREND IN DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS FRI/SAT, WITH A
FEW STORMS POSSIBLE FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST AND SOUTH
TOWARD CLAYTON, TUCUMCARI AND CLOVIS WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN. THE MONSOON HIGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO NEAR
595DAM AT 500MB OVER NM THIS WEEKEND AND WILL CORRELATE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE MOST AREAS.
PWATS WILL BE BACK ON THE UPTREND FROM EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD, AWAY FROM NM AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE UPPER
HIGH CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT, ROUNDS OF DAYTIME HEATING
TRIGGERED CONVECTION WILL BE BACK ON THE UPTREND, FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND NEARBY HIGHLANDS AND
VALLEYS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER HIGH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT WED JUL 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN NM, WITH MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN NM LEADING
TO PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS. SHORTER-LIVED IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KLVS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL MOSTLY LIKELY IMPACT KGUP, KROW AND
KTCC, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT OTHER TAF
SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS ACROSS WESTERN NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT WED JUL 2 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN GET MOSTLY SHUT-DOWN ON
FRI/SAT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND THE MONSOON HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HOTTER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM LATE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MONSOON HIGH. CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS WILL BE BACK ON THE
UPTREND DURING THE LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID WEEK PERIOD AS
MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO THE MONSOON HIGH CIRCULATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 62 87 59 90 / 30 30 20 0
DULCE........................... 48 83 46 86 / 30 70 20 5
CUBA............................ 56 81 54 85 / 50 70 30 0
GALLUP.......................... 52 82 49 86 / 60 70 20 0
EL MORRO........................ 53 79 52 83 / 60 70 20 0
GRANTS.......................... 53 82 52 88 / 40 70 20 0
QUEMADO......................... 57 79 55 83 / 60 70 30 10
MAGDALENA....................... 61 80 61 87 / 40 70 20 5
DATIL........................... 55 76 56 83 / 70 70 20 10
RESERVE......................... 54 84 51 90 / 70 70 20 10
GLENWOOD........................ 57 88 56 93 / 70 70 20 20
CHAMA........................... 47 78 45 80 / 30 70 30 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 59 79 58 83 / 40 70 40 5
PECOS........................... 55 79 56 84 / 40 70 30 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 81 53 83 / 20 70 20 10
RED RIVER....................... 45 70 45 74 / 30 70 30 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 41 73 42 77 / 20 70 30 20
TAOS............................ 52 83 50 85 / 20 70 20 10
MORA............................ 47 77 50 82 / 30 70 30 10
ESPANOLA........................ 60 88 59 92 / 40 60 20 0
SANTA FE........................ 59 81 58 85 / 50 70 20 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 85 58 89 / 40 60 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 88 66 92 / 40 60 30 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 89 64 94 / 40 50 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 91 64 96 / 40 50 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 89 66 94 / 40 50 20 0
BELEN........................... 64 91 63 95 / 40 50 20 0
BERNALILLO...................... 65 91 64 95 / 40 50 20 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 63 90 62 95 / 40 50 30 0
CORRALES........................ 66 91 65 95 / 40 50 20 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 65 90 63 95 / 40 50 30 0
PLACITAS........................ 63 86 63 90 / 40 60 20 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 89 65 94 / 40 50 20 0
SOCORRO......................... 67 90 66 97 / 50 60 20 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 57 82 57 85 / 40 60 30 0
TIJERAS......................... 59 83 59 88 / 40 60 30 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 55 82 55 87 / 40 60 30 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 83 53 88 / 40 60 30 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 55 77 56 83 / 30 60 30 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 57 81 56 86 / 50 70 20 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 81 56 86 / 50 70 20 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 82 62 89 / 50 70 30 5
RUIDOSO......................... 54 73 57 81 / 50 70 30 20
CAPULIN......................... 54 78 53 82 / 20 40 30 20
RATON........................... 54 83 54 87 / 20 50 30 20
SPRINGER........................ 57 84 56 89 / 20 50 30 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 79 54 86 / 30 70 30 5
CLAYTON......................... 61 83 61 90 / 20 20 30 10
ROY............................. 59 80 58 88 / 20 40 30 5
CONCHAS......................... 64 86 64 95 / 30 40 30 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 62 82 62 91 / 30 40 30 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 62 83 64 93 / 30 30 30 0
CLOVIS.......................... 63 82 65 93 / 50 30 30 5
PORTALES........................ 63 83 65 94 / 50 40 30 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 63 84 64 95 / 30 30 30 0
ROSWELL......................... 67 85 68 96 / 50 40 20 0
PICACHO......................... 62 81 61 90 / 50 70 30 5
ELK............................. 57 79 59 87 / 60 70 30 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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