866
FXUS65 KABQ 030310 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
910 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 848 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2025
- MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WILL
BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE RISK
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY OVER AREA BURN
SCARS.
- DRIER AIR SWEEPS IN BY THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY AND SATURDAY,
LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES RISE SUNDAY GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2025
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR THE HERMIT'S PEAK CALF
CANYON SCAR ON THURSDAY, AND ALSO FOR THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS.
RICH MONSOON MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH PWATS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EXPECTED TO VARY AROUND
0.90-1.39" THURSDAY, DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AS IT EXITS THE GREAT
BASIN AND CROSSES THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY,
PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN,
WHICH WILL PROBABLY HELP STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 5-15 MPH OVERCOME A CROSS-DRAINAGE STORM TRACK TO PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING BELOW RECENT BURN SCARS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT WED JUL 2 2025
AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE AREA IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT
OF NM OVERNIGHT AND BE REPLACED WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A PACIFIC LOW, CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CA PER THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR, FILLS AND MOVES EAST INTO AZ. DRIER AIR ALOFT
ROTATING AROUND THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA THURSDAY
AND RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THIS, ALONG WITH
MORE FAVORABLE VEERING WIND PROFILES, INSTABILITY GENERATED BY
DAYTIME HEATING AND ADDED FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
(FORMERLY THE PACIFIC LOW) WILL ADD UP TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR
STORMS, WITH SOME POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG. BURN SCAR FLASH
FLOODING WILL STILL BE A CONCERN THURSDAY, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN INITIAL STORM MOTION WILL BE
CROSS-BASIN ON THE HPCC SCAR AND FORCING WILL BE LESS IMPRESSIVE
FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE RUIDOSO AREA SCARS. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER
AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NM WHERE FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL RESIDE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT WED JUL 2 2025
PWATS WILL TREND DOWN DRAMATICALLY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY AS A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A
MONSOON HIGH BUILDS OVER NM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EXPECT A
SIGNIFICANT DOWNTREND IN DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS FRI/SAT, WITH A
FEW STORMS POSSIBLE FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST AND SOUTH
TOWARD CLAYTON, TUCUMCARI AND CLOVIS WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN. THE MONSOON HIGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO NEAR
595DAM AT 500MB OVER NM THIS WEEKEND AND WILL CORRELATE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE MOST AREAS.
PWATS WILL BE BACK ON THE UPTREND FROM EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD, AWAY FROM NM AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE UPPER
HIGH CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT, ROUNDS OF DAYTIME HEATING
TRIGGERED CONVECTION WILL BE BACK ON THE UPTREND, FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND NEARBY HIGHLANDS AND
VALLEYS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER HIGH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2025
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHERN, CENTRAL, AND WESTERN AREAS TONIGHT, EXCEPT FOR MORE
NUMEROUS CELLS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING.
LATE TONIGHT UNTIL MID-TO-LATE MORNING THURSDAY, AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL PRODUCE MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WET MICROBURSTS WITH LOCALIZED, BRIEF, AND
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 KT. A FEW STORMS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN MAY TURN SEVERE BY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT WED JUL 2 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN GET MOSTLY SHUT-DOWN ON
FRI/SAT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND THE MONSOON HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HOTTER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM LATE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MONSOON HIGH. CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS WILL BE BACK ON THE
UPTREND DURING THE LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID WEEK PERIOD AS
MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO THE MONSOON HIGH CIRCULATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 62 87 59 90 / 30 30 20 0
DULCE........................... 48 83 46 86 / 30 70 20 5
CUBA............................ 56 81 54 85 / 50 70 30 0
GALLUP.......................... 52 82 49 86 / 60 70 20 0
EL MORRO........................ 53 79 52 83 / 60 70 20 0
GRANTS.......................... 53 82 52 88 / 40 70 20 0
QUEMADO......................... 57 79 55 83 / 60 70 30 10
MAGDALENA....................... 61 80 61 87 / 40 70 20 5
DATIL........................... 55 76 56 83 / 70 70 20 10
RESERVE......................... 54 84 51 90 / 70 70 20 10
GLENWOOD........................ 57 88 56 93 / 70 70 20 20
CHAMA........................... 47 78 45 80 / 30 70 30 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 59 79 58 83 / 40 70 40 5
PECOS........................... 55 79 56 84 / 40 70 30 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 81 53 83 / 20 70 20 10
RED RIVER....................... 45 70 45 74 / 30 70 30 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 41 73 42 77 / 20 70 30 20
TAOS............................ 52 83 50 85 / 20 70 20 10
MORA............................ 47 77 50 82 / 30 70 30 10
ESPANOLA........................ 60 88 59 92 / 40 60 20 0
SANTA FE........................ 59 81 58 85 / 50 70 20 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 85 58 89 / 40 60 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 88 66 92 / 40 60 30 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 89 64 94 / 40 50 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 91 64 96 / 40 50 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 89 66 94 / 40 50 20 0
BELEN........................... 64 91 63 95 / 40 50 20 0
BERNALILLO...................... 65 91 64 95 / 40 50 20 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 63 90 62 95 / 40 50 30 0
CORRALES........................ 66 91 65 95 / 40 50 20 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 65 90 63 95 / 40 50 30 0
PLACITAS........................ 63 86 63 90 / 40 60 20 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 89 65 94 / 40 50 20 0
SOCORRO......................... 67 90 66 97 / 50 60 20 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 57 82 57 85 / 40 60 30 0
TIJERAS......................... 59 83 59 88 / 40 60 30 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 55 82 55 87 / 40 60 30 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 83 53 88 / 40 60 30 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 55 77 56 83 / 30 60 30 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 57 81 56 86 / 50 70 20 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 81 56 86 / 50 70 20 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 82 62 89 / 50 70 30 5
RUIDOSO......................... 54 73 57 81 / 50 70 30 20
CAPULIN......................... 54 78 53 82 / 20 40 30 20
RATON........................... 54 83 54 87 / 20 50 30 20
SPRINGER........................ 57 84 56 89 / 20 50 30 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 79 54 86 / 30 70 30 5
CLAYTON......................... 61 83 61 90 / 20 20 30 10
ROY............................. 59 80 58 88 / 20 40 30 5
CONCHAS......................... 64 86 64 95 / 30 40 30 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 62 82 62 91 / 30 40 30 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 62 83 64 93 / 30 30 30 0
CLOVIS.......................... 63 82 65 93 / 50 30 30 5
PORTALES........................ 63 83 65 94 / 50 40 30 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 63 84 64 95 / 30 30 30 0
ROSWELL......................... 67 85 68 96 / 50 40 20 0
PICACHO......................... 62 81 61 90 / 50 70 30 5
ELK............................. 57 79 59 87 / 60 70 30 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
NMZ214-215-226-229.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...44
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