436
FXUS65 KABQ 030725
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
125 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2025
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE WITHIN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NM, PARTICULARLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS.
- DRIER AIR SWEEPS ON THE FOURTH OF JULY AND SATURDAY, LIMITING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
RISE AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2025
AN ACTIVE DAY IS IN STORE AS ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE OVER NM INTERACTS
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 50KT SPEED
MAX ALOFT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AT LEAST NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL, STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS, HAIL, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM. BURN SCAR AREAS WILL BE AT HIGHEST RISK FOR FLOODING.
SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
BETWEEN 30 AND 40KT WILL FAVOR A FEW STRONG CELLS. A SOUTH-NORTH
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ELONGATED AND STRETCHED OVER CENTRAL
NM THIS AFTERNOON THEN SHOVED EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS MUCH DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW APPROACHES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. STORM
MOTION WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TOWARD THE NORTH THEN ACCELERATE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE EXPANDED TO A
LARGER AREA LATER THIS MORNING AFTER ADDITIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLE TRENDS ARE REVIEWED. STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU
MIDNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING SLIDES OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND WARMER WITH HIGHS TRENDING 5 TO 10F
WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS (VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY). STORM
CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE FAR
SOUTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS WHERE A FEW
MEAGER STORMS MAY MANAGE TO POP UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A TAD BREEZY FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR DRAGGING MUCH DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WILL EXIT THE FRONT RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE A
593DM H5 HIGH BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASINGLY
MOIST, LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE NBM HAS INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
(20-30% CHANCE). PWATS NEAR 1" WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35KT WILL FAVOR A FEW
STRONG CELLS AS ACTIVITY MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NM. THE
00Z GFS IS MOST BULLISH WITH FORCING A STRONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NM AND INTO THE RGV SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS WIND SHIFT IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NBM AUTO-
POPULATED FORECAST DATABASE. THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS TO NEAR 594DM
OVER CENTRAL NM SUNDAY WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. MORE TYPICAL TERRAIN-DOMINATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE ACTIVITY PROPAGATES INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER EASTERN NM. NAM/GFS SBCAPE VALUES ARE ABOVE 1000 J/KG
HOWEVER SHEAR VALUES ARE MUCH WEAKER BENEATH THE STRENGTHENING
RIDGE. THE RISK FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR
HPCC AND THE RUIDOSO AREA. ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE
PATTERN MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MEANDERS
OVER CENTRAL & WESTERN NM WITH MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE THREAT FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE WHILE MANY OTHER AREAS ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2025
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TS. MVFR TO LCL IFR LOW CIGS WILL ALSO IMPACT MUCH
OF EASTERN NM THRU SUNRISE WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF RAIN.
STORMS IMPACTING AREAS AROUND THE RGV EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO LIGHTER SHOWERS WITH MID LEVEL CIGS THRU SUNRISE. A MUCH
LARGER CROP OF SHRA/TS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BY NOON THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO NEARBY
VALLEYS, HIGHLANDS, AND EASTERN NM THRU THE EVENING. ANY DIRECT
HITS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS AND BRIEF IFR VSBYS. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR STORMS
WILL BE FROM 2PM TO 8PM BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ALL AREAS BY
LATE EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2025
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE HIGH ON AREA BURN SCARS WITH RAINFALL RATES GREATER THAN
1.5"/HR POSSIBLE. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.
A MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. STORM COVERAGE
WILL BE ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF FRIDAY WITH MIN HUMIDITY FALLING TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 25%. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST NM
SATURDAY AND BRING A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN STORMS TO THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION
AND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERS OVER NM. SLOW-MOVING STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 86 59 90 57 / 40 30 0 0
DULCE........................... 83 45 85 44 / 70 50 5 0
CUBA............................ 80 53 84 54 / 80 50 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 81 48 85 49 / 80 30 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 78 52 82 52 / 80 40 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 81 51 87 52 / 80 30 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 79 54 83 54 / 90 40 10 5
MAGDALENA....................... 80 60 86 62 / 80 30 5 0
DATIL........................... 77 55 82 57 / 80 30 5 0
RESERVE......................... 84 50 90 51 / 90 40 10 0
GLENWOOD........................ 88 55 92 57 / 90 40 20 5
CHAMA........................... 77 44 79 46 / 80 50 10 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 78 57 83 60 / 80 60 5 0
PECOS........................... 78 55 83 59 / 80 60 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 80 52 82 54 / 70 40 10 0
RED RIVER....................... 71 44 74 45 / 80 40 20 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 73 42 77 39 / 80 40 10 0
TAOS............................ 82 51 85 51 / 70 40 5 0
MORA............................ 76 50 81 52 / 90 50 10 0
ESPANOLA........................ 87 58 91 57 / 70 50 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 81 58 85 62 / 80 60 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 84 57 88 59 / 80 60 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 87 65 91 67 / 70 60 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 88 63 92 64 / 60 50 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 91 63 95 63 / 60 50 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 89 65 93 65 / 60 50 0 0
BELEN........................... 90 62 95 62 / 60 40 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 90 63 94 63 / 70 50 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 90 61 95 61 / 60 40 0 0
CORRALES........................ 91 64 95 64 / 70 50 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 89 62 95 62 / 60 40 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 85 63 90 64 / 70 50 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 89 64 93 64 / 70 50 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 90 66 96 67 / 70 40 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 81 57 85 59 / 70 50 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 83 59 87 60 / 70 50 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 81 55 86 54 / 70 50 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 81 53 87 52 / 70 50 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 76 55 82 57 / 80 50 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 80 56 85 58 / 80 50 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 79 56 85 58 / 80 50 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 81 62 89 64 / 80 40 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 73 57 81 59 / 90 40 20 0
CAPULIN......................... 78 54 82 55 / 50 40 20 10
RATON........................... 82 53 87 54 / 60 30 10 5
SPRINGER........................ 83 55 89 56 / 60 40 10 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 78 54 85 55 / 80 50 5 0
CLAYTON......................... 82 62 90 62 / 30 40 10 10
ROY............................. 79 58 87 59 / 50 50 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 86 64 95 63 / 50 60 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 81 61 91 62 / 60 50 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 83 64 92 63 / 40 50 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 81 65 92 65 / 50 50 5 0
PORTALES........................ 82 65 95 65 / 60 50 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 84 64 95 64 / 50 50 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 85 68 96 69 / 60 30 0 0
PICACHO......................... 79 61 90 64 / 80 30 5 0
ELK............................. 78 59 87 62 / 80 30 10 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ214-215-226-229.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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