648
FXUS65 KABQ 040723
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
123 AM MDT FRI JUL 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 103 AM MDT FRI JUL 4 2025
- MUCH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY THEN A FEW GUSTY
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SATURDAY. STORM
CHANCES RISE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM SATURDAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 AM MDT FRI JUL 4 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
WILL DRAG MUCH DRIER AIR FROM AZ INTO NM TODAY. PWATS FALL BELOW
0.50" OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WITH NORTHWEST BREEZES IN THE 15
TO 25 MPH RANGE. STORM CHANCES WILL BE NEAR-ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH BARELY ANY CLOUD COVER OUTSIDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A
STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR NORTHEAST NM. MAX TEMPS
WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL AS WELL.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE FRONT RANGE WILL HELP TO SPAWN
SOME STORMS OVER EASTERN CO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE STORMS
WILL FORCE A CONVECTIVELY-AIDED BOUNDARY SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST
NM FOR SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY BETTER STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ALONG
AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS. DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE, CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM
WILL BE EVEN HOTTER WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 AM MDT FRI JUL 4 2025
STORMS OVER NORTHEAST NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO FORCE
THE CONVECTIVELY-AIDED SURFACE BOUNDARY EVEN FARTHER SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BUILD WESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WHILE THE H5
RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A 594DM H5 HIGH CENTER OVER
SOUTHWEST NM SUNDAY. 700MB FLOW WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
SUNDAY WHILE A MORE WELL-DEFINED THETA-E RIDGE AXIS REORGANIZES
ACROSS NM. PWATS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH THIS
PATTERN FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HIGHER
STORM CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN SUNDAY.
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOT WHILE THE H5
RIDGE BUILDS TO NEAR 598DM (+2 STDEV ABOVE CLIMO) OVER CENTRAL AZ
THRU FRIDAY. THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WHILE
DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THRU CENTRAL NM WITH PWATS NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SLOW STORM MOTIONS FROM ROUGHLY NORTH TO
SOUTH ARE EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY STORM. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD INCLUDES THE
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE H5 RIDGE OVER AZ AND WHETHER MID-
LEVEL WARMING AND TOO MUCH SUBSIDENCE LIMITS CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS
MAY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEGINNING TUESDAY THRU LATE
WEEK FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 103 AM MDT FRI JUL 4 2025
STORMS THAT WERE LINGERING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM OVERNIGHT
HAVE DISSIPATED AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECKS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE THRU SUNRISE WHILE SOME PATCHY FOG
AND LOW CIGS IMPACT PARTS OF EASTERN NM. CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTS AT
ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL ARE LOW BUT THE GREATEST CHANCE BASED ON
THE LATEST NBM WILL BE NEAR KROW AND KTCC (<15% FOR MVFR). DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EASTWARD FRIDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND SLIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZES. A STORM OF TWO WITH GUSTY
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND KCAO.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 103 AM MDT FRI JUL 4 2025
DRY AIR FILTERING INTO NM FROM AZ TODAY WILL FORCE MIN HUMIDITY TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 20% FOR THE ENTIRE REGION ON NORTHWEST BREEZES. MAX
TEMPS WILL WARM MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. SATURDAY WILL
BE DRIER AND HOTTER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WITH MIN HUMIDITY
BETWEEN 10 AND 15%. WINDS WILL TREND LIGHTER. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ENTERING NORTHEAST NM SATURDAY WILL HELP TO FIRE UP A FEW STORMS
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS BEFORE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NM. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE CELLS. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE FORCED EVEN FARTHER
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BETTER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN SUNDAY WITH SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHWEST NM
MONDAY THEN BUILD NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN AZ THRU THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD UNDER THE HIGH INTO
MORE OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM EACH AFTERNOON. DAILY ROUNDS OF SLOW-
MOVING STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN THEN MOVE
SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO NEARBY VALLEYS AND PLAINS. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE ON ANY DAY. NORTHWEST NM MAY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. TEMPS WILL
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION
AREAS IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 89 57 93 57 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 85 44 89 44 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 84 53 89 57 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 85 49 90 50 / 0 0 0 5
EL MORRO........................ 82 52 88 55 / 0 0 5 5
GRANTS.......................... 86 52 91 53 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 83 53 88 56 / 5 0 10 10
MAGDALENA....................... 86 61 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 82 56 87 57 / 0 0 5 5
RESERVE......................... 89 51 94 53 / 5 0 20 10
GLENWOOD........................ 93 56 98 59 / 10 5 10 5
CHAMA........................... 79 46 84 47 / 5 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 83 60 87 61 / 0 0 5 0
PECOS........................... 82 59 87 57 / 0 0 20 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 82 53 86 53 / 5 0 10 5
RED RIVER....................... 73 46 77 45 / 10 5 20 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 77 39 80 40 / 5 0 20 10
TAOS............................ 85 51 88 52 / 0 0 5 5
MORA............................ 81 51 85 50 / 0 0 20 10
ESPANOLA........................ 90 58 95 58 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 85 61 89 62 / 0 0 5 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 88 59 92 60 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 90 67 95 68 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 93 64 96 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 95 64 98 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 93 65 97 66 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 94 62 98 62 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 93 63 98 64 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 94 61 97 61 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 94 64 98 65 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 94 62 97 63 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 88 63 93 65 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 93 64 97 65 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 96 69 98 68 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 85 59 89 58 / 0 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 86 60 90 60 / 0 0 0 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 85 56 90 55 / 0 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 86 53 92 52 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 82 57 86 57 / 0 0 5 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 85 57 90 56 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 85 58 90 56 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 88 64 94 64 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 81 59 88 59 / 0 0 5 0
CAPULIN......................... 81 55 83 54 / 20 20 30 30
RATON........................... 85 55 88 53 / 10 10 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 88 56 90 55 / 10 5 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 85 55 88 55 / 0 0 20 10
CLAYTON......................... 88 62 90 62 / 20 20 10 30
ROY............................. 86 60 88 59 / 10 10 10 20
CONCHAS......................... 93 64 95 65 / 5 5 10 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 90 62 93 62 / 0 0 5 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 91 64 93 65 / 0 0 5 20
CLOVIS.......................... 93 64 93 67 / 0 0 0 20
PORTALES........................ 95 64 95 67 / 0 0 0 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 95 64 97 66 / 0 0 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 98 69 100 70 / 0 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 90 65 95 63 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 88 62 93 60 / 5 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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