782
FXUS65 KABQ 060017 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
617 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 600 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2025
- DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH MONDAY WITH MODERATE HEAT RISK LIKELY. A FEW STORMS WILL
BEGIN IMPACTING THIS AREA TUESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK
HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL JUST REMAIN DRY AND VERY HOT WITH
INCREASING RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
- DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT EASTERN HIGHLANDS THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS, HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ELEVATE THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ON RECENT BURN SCARS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2025
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE INCREASED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN
EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NM GIVEN THAT RECENT HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO SHOW AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF STORMS
DEVELOPING OFF OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING STORMS.
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME, BUT THE FAVORED AREA WILL BE CLAYTON TO TUCUMCARI
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT SAT JUL 5 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 593DAM AT 500MB
AND MOVE NORTH FROM MX, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE
FORCING TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FOR ROUNDS OF DAYTIME
HEATING INITIATED CONVECTION, WHICH WILL FAVOR THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN BE MORE
ROBUST IN TERMS OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON SUNDAY. A GUSTY EAST
CANYON WIND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY
EVENING DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM STORMS TO THE EAST. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM TODAY'S CROP WILL BE STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, BUT SUNDAY'S
ROUND WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. SLOW
STORM MOTION ON SUNDAY WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ON THE
HPCC AND RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS. WILL FORGO A WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN
DIFFERENCES IN THE LATEST MODELING, INCLUDING THE CAMS. OF NOTE,
THE 12Z NAM IS PARTICULARLY BULLISH ON INITIATION OVER THE RUIDOSO
AREA SCARS SUNDAY, WITH SIGNIFICANT QPF.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT SAT JUL 5 2025
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR IN TERMS OF THE UPPER HIGH
POSITIONING ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER, WITH ROUNDS OF DAYTIME
HEATING INITIATED CONVECTION FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE THREAT FOR BURN SCAR
FLOODING WILL PERSIST MON/TUE, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT IN THE
RUIDOSO AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN NM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING
UPPER HIGH. BY WEDNESDAY, 500MB HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 596-599DAM ACROSS WESTERN NM WHERE MODERATE TO
POTENTIALLY MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL RESIDE. AT LEAST A MODERATE HEAT
RISK WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS WESTERN NM,
BUT THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AND DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW INCREASE AND CORRESPOND WITH AN
UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NM.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2025
STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE MARCHING TOWARDS THE TX BORDER THROUGH
THE EVENING, WITH A LOW POTENTIAL (<30%) FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z OVER THE SAME PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN NM. THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN NM WILL GET PUSHED WESTWARD TONIGHT, CREATING A LOW-END
GAP WIND THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BETWEEN
03Z AND 09Z. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHLANDS ADJACENT TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW, WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS IMPACTING SITES SUCH AS KLVS
AND KSRR. CONFIDENCE IN REDUCED CIGS IS LOWER FURTHER EAST, BUT
ARE POSSIBLE AT KTCC AND KROW. STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD, WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS FAR WEST AS THE
HIGH TERRAIN NEAR KGUP. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND BRIEFLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT SAT JUL 5 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. AN UPPER HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
REGION AND BRING HOTTER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN NM. DAILY ROUNDS OF
WETTING STORMS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH A CONTINUED RISK
FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING. A FEW DRY STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN NM SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO NEW
FIRE STARTS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE WEST SLIGHTLY BY
LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ALLOWING THE HOT
TEMPERATURES TO EASE SOME AND BRINGING CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS
BACK TO WESTERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 58 94 63 96 / 0 5 10 5
DULCE........................... 44 91 47 91 / 0 10 20 20
CUBA............................ 56 90 58 90 / 0 20 20 20
GALLUP.......................... 50 91 52 92 / 0 10 20 10
EL MORRO........................ 55 88 57 89 / 0 20 40 30
GRANTS.......................... 53 91 56 92 / 0 20 30 30
QUEMADO......................... 57 90 59 90 / 5 40 50 50
MAGDALENA....................... 62 91 64 89 / 0 30 30 50
DATIL........................... 57 88 58 88 / 5 30 40 50
RESERVE......................... 54 96 55 96 / 5 40 30 60
GLENWOOD........................ 59 99 61 100 / 5 30 30 50
CHAMA........................... 47 85 50 85 / 0 20 20 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 61 85 61 86 / 0 30 20 40
PECOS........................... 57 85 58 86 / 10 60 40 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 85 54 85 / 0 20 20 60
RED RIVER....................... 44 77 46 75 / 0 30 20 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 39 79 42 78 / 5 40 20 70
TAOS............................ 51 88 53 87 / 0 20 20 40
MORA............................ 49 83 51 80 / 10 50 30 60
ESPANOLA........................ 59 93 60 93 / 0 30 20 30
SANTA FE........................ 61 88 62 88 / 10 40 30 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 60 91 61 92 / 5 30 20 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 96 70 96 / 0 30 30 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 97 68 97 / 0 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 99 67 100 / 0 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 97 69 97 / 0 20 20 20
BELEN........................... 62 98 66 98 / 0 20 20 20
BERNALILLO...................... 64 98 66 98 / 0 20 20 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 61 98 65 98 / 0 20 20 20
CORRALES........................ 65 98 67 99 / 0 20 20 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 62 98 66 98 / 0 20 20 20
PLACITAS........................ 64 93 66 94 / 0 20 20 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 65 97 67 98 / 0 20 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 67 100 70 99 / 0 20 20 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 57 89 60 89 / 0 30 20 40
TIJERAS......................... 59 90 62 91 / 0 30 30 40
EDGEWOOD........................ 54 90 56 90 / 5 30 30 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 91 54 91 / 5 40 30 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 84 57 83 / 10 50 40 50
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 56 90 59 89 / 0 30 30 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 89 59 88 / 5 30 30 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 65 91 65 91 / 0 30 20 60
RUIDOSO......................... 58 83 58 83 / 0 60 20 70
CAPULIN......................... 53 82 52 80 / 50 40 40 60
RATON........................... 53 87 53 84 / 20 40 20 60
SPRINGER........................ 54 88 56 85 / 20 40 20 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 84 54 82 / 20 50 40 60
CLAYTON......................... 61 88 60 84 / 60 30 50 30
ROY............................. 58 85 58 83 / 50 40 50 40
CONCHAS......................... 63 93 63 91 / 40 40 50 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 62 90 61 88 / 30 40 50 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 62 90 64 88 / 40 20 50 20
CLOVIS.......................... 67 91 66 89 / 40 20 40 20
PORTALES........................ 67 93 66 91 / 30 20 40 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 94 65 92 / 30 30 40 20
ROSWELL......................... 72 96 70 94 / 10 20 20 20
PICACHO......................... 65 90 63 89 / 5 40 20 40
ELK............................. 61 89 60 87 / 5 50 10 50
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...16
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