028
FXUS65 KABQ 180735
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
135 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 127 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
- SLOW MOVING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY OVER RECENT
BURN SCARS.
- GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
- THERE IS A MODERATE HEAT RISK FOR LOWER ELEVATION AREAS OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WHERE HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100F.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WANE OVER EAST-CENTRAL
NM BETWEEN TUCUMCARI AND CLOVIS WITH A FEW SPOT UPDRAFTS
INTERRUPTING THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. OTHERWISE, MOST AREAS WILL SEE CLEARING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP
FEATURES AN H5 HIGH EXPANDING IN FROM THE EAST WITH AN H5 CLOSED LOW
STILL LOITERING OVER SOCAL AND THE NORTHERN BAJA, WITH ANOTHER UPPER-
LEVEL CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. ABUNDANT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BENEATH THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE H5 HIGH
ACROSS NEW MEXICO TODAY, HIGHLIGHTED BY PWATS 1.10" TO 1.30". ONE
PARTICULAR MOISTURE HIGHLIGHT WILL BE SURFACE TD'S IN THE 60S TO
UPPER 60S OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL NM. STRONG
INSTABILITY IS HIGHLIGHTED HERE BY THE RAP, HOWEVER THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TAPPED INTO BY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO
THE EXPANSION OF THE H5 HIGH OVER EASTERN NM. WITH THE OVERALL LACK
OF FORCING TO GENERATE CONVECTION BEING PUSHED WEST OF THE AREA
TODAY, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FAVOR TERRAIN BASED UPDRAFTS
STARTING NEAR MID-DAY OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAINS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STEADILY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER
SURROUNDING LOWER ELEVATIONS THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS FOR CELLS DEVELOPING OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL AGAIN PLACE THE RUIDOSO BURN SCARS AT A
HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FRIDAY WHERE RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A DRYING AND LOWERING OF TD'S THRU THE
AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BE A TAD FASTER WHERE HI-RES CAMS
ARE NOT SHOWING AS ROBUST OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT, NOTABLY OVER THE
HPCC BURN SCAR. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL A NON-ZERO MARGINAL
RISK FOR ANY LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORM CELL TO PRODUCE A FLASH FLOODING
RISK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND HPCC BURN SCAR
WHERE ANTECEDENT GROUND CONDITIONS ARE RATHER SOAKED. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WANES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BEING MAINLY DRIVEN BY
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER CENTRAL NM.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
THE WEEKEND BEGINS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH THE SLOW WEAKENING OF
THE H5 CLOSED LOW LOITERING OVER SOCAL AS THE H5 HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS STEADILY EXPANDS FURTHER WEST OVER NEW
MEXICO. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE RECYCLED UNDER THE H5
HIGH'S WESTERN PERIPHERY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NM
NEAR NOON EACH DAY BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING OVER SURROUNDING LOWER
ELEVATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WET
ANTECEDENT GROUND CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL
CONTINUE A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POORLY
DRAINED AREAS, AS WELL AS RECENT BURN SCARS. THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
LOOKS TO BE AN EXCEPTION FOR THE DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEING CLOSER TO DRIER SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THAT PORTION OF
THE STATE. MEANWHILE, HIGHS WILL CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100F ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS TOWARD TX. A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT INDUCED
ILLNESSES WILL RESULT IN THESE AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS, LASTING TO MONDAY.
DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM BEFORE MOVING OVER
SURROUNDING LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THREATENING
FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A DAILY RISK FOR LOW-LYING AND POORLY
DRAINED AREAS AS WELL AS RECENT BURN SCARS. THE H5 HIGH BEGINS TO
RECENTER AND REDEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NM THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE H5 HIGH,
RECYCLED EACH DAY IN THE FORM OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER EAST-CENTRAL NM WITH AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BRINGING A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD THRU KCVS TO KCVN THIS HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE
THRU THE NEXT FEW HOURS TONIGHT WITH REMNANT VICINITY FOG AND MIST
SETTLING IN ITS WAKE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NM HEADING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS CLEAR PAST SUNRISE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL STEADILY DRIFT OVER NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS THRU THE MID-TO-
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS AS FAR AS IT HAS THIS PAST EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 127 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THRU THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS RICH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM NEAR MID-
DAY BEFORE DRIFTING OVER SURROUNDING LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR ANY ONGOING FIRE SUPPRESSION
ACTIVITIES. FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO REMAIN A THREAT UNDER SLOW-
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OVER RECENT BURN SCARS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 92 63 93 63 / 10 20 10 10
DULCE........................... 88 49 90 48 / 30 30 40 30
CUBA............................ 86 59 86 59 / 40 50 50 40
GALLUP.......................... 88 55 85 53 / 30 30 40 30
EL MORRO........................ 84 58 83 56 / 40 50 70 50
GRANTS.......................... 88 56 86 56 / 50 50 60 40
QUEMADO......................... 84 59 82 57 / 60 60 80 50
MAGDALENA....................... 85 63 86 62 / 60 50 70 50
DATIL........................... 83 57 82 57 / 70 50 80 50
RESERVE......................... 90 55 89 55 / 60 50 80 50
GLENWOOD........................ 92 60 93 61 / 50 50 80 40
CHAMA........................... 82 49 83 49 / 50 30 60 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 82 62 83 62 / 50 40 60 30
PECOS........................... 83 59 86 59 / 40 30 60 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 83 56 83 56 / 60 30 60 30
RED RIVER....................... 74 47 75 47 / 60 30 70 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 77 44 77 42 / 60 30 70 20
TAOS............................ 85 55 86 54 / 50 30 50 20
MORA............................ 81 53 82 52 / 60 30 70 30
ESPANOLA........................ 90 62 92 62 / 40 30 40 30
SANTA FE........................ 85 62 86 62 / 40 40 60 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 88 60 89 61 / 30 30 50 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 91 68 93 70 / 30 40 50 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 93 69 94 68 / 30 40 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 95 67 96 67 / 30 40 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 93 69 94 68 / 30 40 40 30
BELEN........................... 95 66 96 65 / 30 40 30 30
BERNALILLO...................... 94 68 96 67 / 30 40 40 30
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 94 65 96 65 / 30 40 30 30
CORRALES........................ 95 68 96 68 / 30 40 40 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 94 67 96 65 / 30 40 30 30
PLACITAS........................ 90 65 91 67 / 30 40 40 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 93 68 95 68 / 30 40 40 30
SOCORRO......................... 95 68 96 69 / 40 50 40 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 86 61 87 61 / 30 40 50 40
TIJERAS......................... 87 63 89 62 / 30 40 50 40
EDGEWOOD........................ 87 58 89 57 / 30 30 50 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 88 57 89 55 / 30 30 40 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 82 59 83 58 / 40 30 30 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 85 59 87 60 / 40 40 40 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 85 59 86 60 / 60 40 40 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 87 64 89 66 / 50 30 40 20
RUIDOSO......................... 79 58 82 60 / 80 30 50 20
CAPULIN......................... 83 56 83 55 / 40 30 60 20
RATON........................... 86 56 86 55 / 40 30 60 20
SPRINGER........................ 88 56 89 56 / 40 30 50 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 84 57 86 56 / 40 30 50 20
CLAYTON......................... 90 65 92 65 / 20 20 20 10
ROY............................. 85 61 89 60 / 30 20 30 20
CONCHAS......................... 93 67 96 67 / 20 20 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 89 64 92 65 / 30 20 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 90 65 94 66 / 10 10 5 10
CLOVIS.......................... 93 67 96 68 / 10 10 0 0
PORTALES........................ 94 66 97 69 / 10 10 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 93 68 96 70 / 20 10 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 97 70 101 71 / 20 10 0 5
PICACHO......................... 88 62 91 65 / 60 20 30 10
ELK............................. 85 60 88 61 / 60 20 30 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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