393
FXUS65 KABQ 312358 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
558 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 558 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2025
- A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AROUND BURN SCARS, URBAN AREAS, LOCATIONS
WITH SATURATED GROUND, AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS. RAINFALL RATES
WILL EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND STRENGTHEN OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT
WEEK REDUCING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND RESULTING IN MODERATE
HEAT RISK IN MANY LOWER-ELEVATION LOCATIONS, EXCEPT FOR MAJOR
HEAT RISK TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND MIDDLE
AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 558 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2025
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED FOR THE DAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING RUIDOSO. FOR THAT REASON, THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT ZONE HAS BEEN CANCELLED. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS, SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS UNTIL 9 PM MDT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2025
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AS OF 12PM TODAY, AND
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS INITIATING OFF OF THE HIGH
TERRAIN ARE LIKELY TO HAVE SLOW AND ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS, BASED ON
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SITTING NEAR THE BOOTHEEL OF NM. WITH SLOW
STORM MOTIONS AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE (0.98" PWAT ON THE 18Z ABQ
SOUNDING), EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES ARE LIKELY, PERHAPS EXCEEDING
2"/HR IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 9PM TONIGHT, MAINLY FOR THE HPCC AND RUIDOSO AREA
BURN SCARS, AS WELL AS THE GILA REGION IN SOUTHWEST NM. FOLKS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE A PLAN IF A WARNING SHOULD BE ISSUED (WHERE
AS OF 1230PM, RUIDOSO HAS BEEN PLACED IN A FLASH FLOOD WARNING).
ELSEWHERE, IN WESTERN NM, THE GALLUP AIRPORT RECEIVED A SEVERE WIND
GUST YESTERDAY FROM A NEARBY VIRGA SHOWER, AND THERE ARE LIKELY TO
BE MORE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EARLY AFTERNOON MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN NM, WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY CAUSE ISOLATED FLOODING IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY IN PLACES THAT HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. NOT A WHOLE LOT IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR FRIDAY, WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OFF OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND MOVING INTO THE
LOWER TERRAIN. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IS AN INCREASE IN
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ACROSS NORTHERN AND SPECIFICALLY NORTHEAST
NM. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 30-
40KT RANGE, SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS AND PRODUCE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. COLLABORATED WITH SPC TO PLACE A MARGINAL
(1/5) RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN NORTHEAST NM FOR THE DAY 2
(FRIDAY) OUTLOOK.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2025
THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
SENDING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AROUND ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY INTO THE
STATE. LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM THIS PAST WEEK SHOULD REMAIN ABUNDANT
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED STORMS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN FOR
SATURDAY, BEFORE THE HIGH SHIFTS MORE OVER THE STATE ITSELF SUNDAY.
BY THIS TIME, PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE BELOW 10% FOR THE ENTIRE
STATE AS THE HEAT RAMPS UP. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE 5-10F
ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, WITH HIGH 90S TO LOW 100S
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. MODERATE RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS
IS LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
NEXT WEEK, WITH LOCALLY MAJOR RISK IN AND NEAR THE ROSWELL AREA AS
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S. THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER
THE STATE MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, CONTINUING HOT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING
100F IN ABQ BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
THE HIGH MAY WORK TO INDUCE HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM, WHERE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREATS
MAY RETURN BASED ON SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2025
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN, WEST CENTRAL, AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NM WILL RESULT IN SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AND JUST EAST OF THE
SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS WILL DEVELOP A BRIEF GUSTY GAP WIND
AFFECTING KABQ THIS EVENING. CLEARING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER CROP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MIDDAY FRIDAY. STORM MOTION WILL
BE SLOW AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM. HOWEVER, STORM MOTION WILL BE QUICKER TO THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS, LIKELY IMPACTING KLVS AT
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THESE STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, HOWEVER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS WESTERN NM SATURDAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA, HUMIDITY LEVELS DROP INTO
THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO HINDER CHANCES OF SEEING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND TOMORROW
WHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE FAVORED TO RETURN MID NEXT WEEK TO
THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 63 92 64 95 / 30 5 5 0
DULCE........................... 47 87 47 89 / 60 30 20 10
CUBA............................ 54 86 57 89 / 70 30 30 10
GALLUP.......................... 53 89 54 92 / 30 20 10 0
EL MORRO........................ 54 84 55 87 / 60 40 30 10
GRANTS.......................... 55 87 56 91 / 60 40 30 10
QUEMADO......................... 56 85 58 88 / 60 50 30 20
MAGDALENA....................... 60 83 62 87 / 60 50 20 20
DATIL........................... 55 82 56 85 / 60 60 30 30
RESERVE......................... 54 90 55 93 / 50 70 20 30
GLENWOOD........................ 58 94 61 97 / 60 60 20 20
CHAMA........................... 46 80 49 82 / 60 40 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 56 81 59 84 / 60 40 20 20
PECOS........................... 54 81 55 85 / 60 50 30 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 81 53 83 / 60 60 20 30
RED RIVER....................... 44 72 45 74 / 60 70 20 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 40 74 40 77 / 70 70 20 40
TAOS............................ 51 83 52 86 / 60 50 20 20
MORA............................ 48 78 49 82 / 70 60 30 30
ESPANOLA........................ 57 88 58 92 / 70 40 20 10
SANTA FE........................ 58 83 60 86 / 70 40 30 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 57 86 58 90 / 70 40 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 89 68 92 / 70 30 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 63 90 66 94 / 60 30 30 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 63 93 65 97 / 60 20 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 91 66 95 / 60 30 20 5
BELEN........................... 61 92 63 96 / 60 20 20 5
BERNALILLO...................... 63 91 65 95 / 70 30 30 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 61 92 63 96 / 60 20 20 5
CORRALES........................ 63 92 66 96 / 60 30 30 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 62 92 64 96 / 60 20 20 5
PLACITAS........................ 61 88 64 92 / 70 30 30 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 63 91 65 95 / 60 30 30 10
SOCORRO......................... 64 93 66 96 / 60 30 20 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 55 83 59 87 / 70 30 30 10
TIJERAS......................... 58 83 60 88 / 70 30 30 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 53 83 55 88 / 70 30 20 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 85 53 89 / 60 30 20 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 78 55 83 / 60 40 30 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 55 83 57 87 / 60 40 20 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 55 82 58 86 / 50 40 20 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 86 64 89 / 50 40 10 10
RUIDOSO......................... 55 78 57 82 / 40 50 10 20
CAPULIN......................... 54 78 52 82 / 70 60 40 30
RATON........................... 54 81 51 86 / 70 60 40 30
SPRINGER........................ 55 84 53 88 / 60 60 40 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 79 53 85 / 60 60 30 20
CLAYTON......................... 60 82 58 89 / 30 40 40 10
ROY............................. 58 80 56 86 / 60 40 40 10
CONCHAS......................... 63 88 62 94 / 40 30 40 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 85 60 91 / 40 30 30 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 60 84 60 90 / 30 20 30 0
CLOVIS.......................... 64 89 65 94 / 30 20 30 0
PORTALES........................ 65 90 64 96 / 30 20 20 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 64 89 64 94 / 30 10 20 0
ROSWELL......................... 69 94 69 98 / 30 10 10 0
PICACHO......................... 62 86 61 91 / 30 30 10 5
ELK............................. 58 83 59 89 / 30 40 5 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ208-209-214-215-
229.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...71
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