805
FXUS65 KABQ 192343 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
543 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 536 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2025
- MINOR TO MODERATE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE BELOW RECENT
BURN SCARS WEDNESDAY.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY THEN
MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
- INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE-WEEK WILL ELEVATE THE
THREAT FOR MODERATE HEAT RISK IN MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
WITH MAJOR HEAT RISK POSSIBLE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2025
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN
RANGE AND ARE SLOWLY PROPAGATING EASTWARD. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT TODAY WILL SUPPORT SINGLE-CELL
AND MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW MEXICO, BUT UPDRAFTS
SHOULD NOT BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO MAKE THESE CELLS ORGANIZED AND
TURN SEVERE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL CREATE MINOR
FLOODING CONCERNS; HOWEVER, FLOODING POTENTIAL SHARPLY INCREASES
IF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER A BURN SCAR. HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 80'S AND 90'S EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATED AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
TOMORROW, THE CWA WILL BE UNDER A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SEVERE, AND THE
FLOOD RISK IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DUE TO THE DECREASED STORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE IN
THE 80'S AND 90'S OFF OF THE HIGH TERRAIN.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2025
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY THE WEEKEND,
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EAST. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST
OF THIS WEEK SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED EACH DAY. IT
SHOULD NOT BE UNTIL NEXT WEEK WHERE WE COULD SEE A NOTABLE
DECREASE DUE TO POTENTIAL COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA. FORECAST
THETA-E PROFILES SUGGEST THAT DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCE MAY INCREASE AREA WIDE NEXT WEEK AS WE
ANTICIPATE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM EARLY THIS
EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
03Z OR SO. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP AROUND KROW LATE THIS EVENING, CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO
INSERT A PROB30 OR TEMPO ATTM. WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS. STORM
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, WITH STORMS FOCUSED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A FEW STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOWER VISIBILITY AS WELL AS
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35KT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2025
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WHILE DRY LIGHTNING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEK, IT CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT FOR POTENTIAL FIRE STARTS. MINIMUM RH VALUES
ARE LOWEST ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO, RANGING IN THE TEENS AND
20'S. MEANWHILE, THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
WILL SEE MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND OR GREATER THAN 30%. WHILE
OVERALL FIRE RISK CONTINUES TO BE LOW, GRASSES MAY STILL BE DRY
ENOUGH TO AID IN FIRE SPREAD UPON INITIATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 67 96 68 97 / 10 10 10 10
DULCE........................... 50 91 52 94 / 30 30 20 30
CUBA............................ 56 87 57 90 / 20 40 20 30
GALLUP.......................... 56 91 56 92 / 30 40 30 30
EL MORRO........................ 56 86 56 87 / 50 40 40 50
GRANTS.......................... 57 88 57 91 / 40 30 30 40
QUEMADO......................... 57 86 57 87 / 50 50 30 50
MAGDALENA....................... 61 85 62 88 / 50 40 10 30
DATIL........................... 56 82 57 85 / 40 40 20 40
RESERVE......................... 55 89 55 92 / 50 60 30 60
GLENWOOD........................ 59 91 60 94 / 50 60 20 50
CHAMA........................... 49 84 50 87 / 30 40 20 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 85 62 88 / 30 60 20 60
PECOS........................... 55 82 56 85 / 60 50 20 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 84 55 87 / 20 60 10 30
RED RIVER....................... 45 73 46 77 / 20 60 10 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 38 77 38 80 / 50 50 10 30
TAOS............................ 51 86 53 89 / 30 60 10 20
MORA............................ 50 78 50 81 / 70 50 10 30
ESPANOLA........................ 58 93 60 95 / 30 60 20 30
SANTA FE........................ 60 84 61 88 / 40 40 20 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 88 60 90 / 30 40 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 68 90 70 93 / 40 30 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 92 68 94 / 40 20 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 94 67 96 / 40 20 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 93 68 95 / 40 20 20 20
BELEN........................... 62 94 64 95 / 40 20 10 10
BERNALILLO...................... 64 94 66 95 / 40 30 20 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 62 93 64 95 / 40 20 10 10
CORRALES........................ 65 94 67 96 / 40 30 20 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 93 65 95 / 40 20 10 10
PLACITAS........................ 64 89 65 91 / 40 30 10 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 65 93 67 95 / 40 30 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 67 94 67 95 / 50 20 10 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 85 60 87 / 50 30 10 30
TIJERAS......................... 60 86 62 88 / 50 30 10 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 55 86 57 89 / 60 30 10 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 87 54 90 / 60 30 10 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 81 58 83 / 60 20 10 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 56 84 57 86 / 40 30 10 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 83 57 85 / 30 40 10 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 85 61 87 / 30 40 10 20
RUIDOSO......................... 56 76 56 79 / 20 70 10 20
CAPULIN......................... 54 80 55 84 / 30 20 0 0
RATON........................... 54 84 53 88 / 50 20 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 55 86 55 90 / 60 20 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 82 55 85 / 70 40 10 20
CLAYTON......................... 62 86 62 90 / 20 10 0 0
ROY............................. 58 84 58 87 / 40 20 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 63 91 64 93 / 40 10 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 87 61 90 / 30 20 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 62 85 62 90 / 30 10 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 66 89 65 93 / 30 10 5 5
PORTALES........................ 66 89 65 93 / 30 20 5 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 87 65 92 / 30 10 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 69 90 68 95 / 20 20 10 5
PICACHO......................... 62 84 61 89 / 20 40 10 10
ELK............................. 58 84 57 85 / 20 60 5 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...34
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