467
FXUS65 KABQ 201800
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1200 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2025
- MINOR TO MODERATE FLASH FLOOD RISK BELOW RECENT BURN SCARS THIS
AFTERNOON.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
THEN MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD WETTER AND COOLER CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE
FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NM THIS WEEKEND, EXPANDING TO MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
- MODERATE HEAT RISK IN MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WITH MAJOR
HEAT RISK POSSIBLE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2025
A 598 TO 599 DAM UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH ALONG WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH TEXAS IS BRINGING
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR INTO MUCH OF EASTERN NM. THIS IS HELPING TO SHUT
DOWN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THIS PART OF THE STATE,
EXPECT FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NM INCLUDING
ROSWELL DUE TO A BOUNDARY PRESENT AND LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE AREA. FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM, ISOLATED TO AT MOST A
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH A GENERAL STORM MOTION TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
INTO NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE FLOW AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. ANY WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FINALLY, THE STORM MOTION WILL
HELP TO KEEP ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY MOSTLY TO THE WEST AND
AWAY FROM THE HPCC AND RUIDOSO BURN SCARS. ANY SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
CLEARING AND TAPERING OFF FROM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT.
THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS EASTERN NM TODAY MAKES FURTHER
PROGRESS WEST AND SOUTH INTO THE STATE AROUND THE 597 DAM 500 MB
UPPER HIGH CENTROID ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY HIGHLANDS WITH GENERAL STORM MOTION
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. FINALLY, WITH THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA, HOT TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM CLOSER TO THE UPPER HIGH CENTROID. AS A RESULT, A
MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2025
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH THE 596 DAM 500 MB
UPPER HIGH CENTROID PIVOTING A LITTLE WEST TO THE UT/AZ BORDER. A
SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CO ROCKIES, SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPILL
OVER INTO THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. COME THE WEEKEND, THE 500 MB UPPER HIGH FURTHER
WEAKENS TO 593 DAM AS IT MEANDERS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN AZ AND NM.
THIS WEAKENING OF THE UPPER HIGH IS IN RESPONSE TO THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
SHORTWAVES AMONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH AND THE
THE BROAD TROUGHING WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR SOUTH OF I-40 WILL HELP RESULT IN MUCH LESS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS AND NEARBY HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE AUGUST.
INTO NEXT WEEK, EXTENDED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
2/3RDS OF THE U.S. HELPING TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE UPPER HIGH AND
SHIFT IT SOUTHEAST TO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER RGV OF TEXAS. THIS
TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL SEND A REINFORCING AND STRONGER BACKDOOR
FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST NM MONDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH
ALL OF EASTERN NM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES, THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN NM MONDAY
EXPANDING TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE BACKDOOR
FRONT AND LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN
TO BELOW AVERAGE AREAWIDE BY MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN OVERALL STORM MOTION
GENERALLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT TERMINALS LIKE KGUP, KABQ,
KSAF AND KLVS. ADDITIONALLY, SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NM ALONG A BOUNDARY COULD
IMPACT KROW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
AVIATION IMPACT FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO
40 KTS.ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF AROUND
SUNSET WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2025
HOT AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY DUE TO AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. CLOCKWISE
FLOW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION WILL HELP DIRECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS. ANY WETTING
RAINFALL WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAIN RANGES WITH GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD FOR NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE UPPER
HIGH WEAKEN AND SHIFTS SOUTHWEST TOWARDS NORTHERN NM AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO AN UNSEASONABLY
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-40 THIS WEEKEND, EVENTUALLY EXPANDING TO THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
COOL DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS COME THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 68 98 67 97 / 10 10 20 10
DULCE........................... 53 94 52 93 / 20 20 20 50
CUBA............................ 57 91 57 89 / 20 20 20 30
GALLUP.......................... 57 93 58 93 / 10 20 20 30
EL MORRO........................ 57 88 57 88 / 20 30 30 40
GRANTS.......................... 58 92 58 92 / 20 20 20 30
QUEMADO......................... 58 87 58 88 / 20 40 30 40
MAGDALENA....................... 62 87 62 88 / 10 20 10 10
DATIL........................... 57 85 57 85 / 10 30 20 30
RESERVE......................... 56 91 56 91 / 20 60 20 50
GLENWOOD........................ 60 93 60 94 / 20 60 20 40
CHAMA........................... 51 89 51 87 / 20 20 20 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 88 61 88 / 10 40 10 40
PECOS........................... 56 85 56 86 / 10 30 5 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 87 54 88 / 10 10 5 30
RED RIVER....................... 46 78 46 78 / 10 10 5 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 40 80 39 80 / 10 20 0 20
TAOS............................ 54 89 54 90 / 10 10 5 20
MORA............................ 51 81 50 82 / 10 30 5 20
ESPANOLA........................ 60 96 60 95 / 10 20 10 20
SANTA FE........................ 60 87 60 87 / 10 30 10 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 92 59 91 / 10 20 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 69 93 69 93 / 10 20 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 68 94 68 95 / 10 10 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 97 67 97 / 10 10 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 95 67 96 / 10 10 10 5
BELEN........................... 65 95 64 96 / 10 10 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 65 97 65 96 / 10 20 10 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 64 95 64 96 / 10 10 5 0
CORRALES........................ 66 97 66 97 / 10 20 10 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 64 96 65 96 / 10 10 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 65 92 65 93 / 10 20 10 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 96 66 96 / 10 10 10 5
SOCORRO......................... 67 96 67 96 / 10 10 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 61 87 61 88 / 10 20 10 10
TIJERAS......................... 62 88 62 89 / 10 20 10 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 58 89 57 90 / 10 20 5 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 90 54 91 / 10 20 5 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 84 58 85 / 10 10 0 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 59 87 59 88 / 5 10 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 86 58 86 / 5 10 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 87 62 88 / 5 10 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 56 79 56 80 / 10 20 0 10
CAPULIN......................... 54 84 54 84 / 5 5 0 0
RATON........................... 53 89 53 88 / 5 5 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 54 89 54 90 / 5 10 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 84 54 85 / 10 20 0 10
CLAYTON......................... 61 90 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 58 87 58 87 / 5 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 63 93 64 94 / 5 5 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 89 62 90 / 5 5 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 61 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 65 92 64 93 / 5 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 64 92 64 93 / 5 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 91 65 92 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 67 94 68 95 / 10 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 61 88 61 89 / 10 5 0 5
ELK............................. 58 85 57 86 / 10 10 0 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71
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