806  
FXUS65 KABQ 202329 AAA  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
529 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
UPDATED AT 519 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2025  
 
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS  
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH EARLY  
EVENING THEN MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD WETTER AND COOLER CONDITIONS IS  
POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NM THIS WEEKEND, EXPANDING TO MOST  
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.  
 
- MODERATE HEAT RISK IN MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WITH MAJOR  
HEAT RISK POSSIBLE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2025  
 
A 598 TO 599 DAM UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA  
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH ALONG WITH  
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH TEXAS IS BRINGING  
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR INTO MUCH OF EASTERN NM. THIS IS HELPING TO SHUT  
DOWN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THIS PART OF THE STATE,  
EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NM INCLUDING  
ROSWELL DUE TO A BOUNDARY PRESENT AND LINGERING MID LEVEL  
MOISTURE IN THE AREA. FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM, ISOLATED TO AT  
MOST A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING  
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH A GENERAL STORM MOTION TO THE  
WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE FLOW AROUND  
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. ANY WETTING RAINFALL  
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FINALLY, THE STORM  
MOTION WILL HELP TO KEEP ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY MOSTLY TO  
THE WEST AND AWAY FROM THE HPCC AND RUIDOSO BURN SCARS. ANY SHOWER  
AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH MID  
LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING AND TAPERING OFF FROM EAST TO WEST  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS EASTERN NM TODAY MAKES FURTHER  
PROGRESS WEST AND SOUTH INTO THE STATE AROUND THE 597 DAM 500 MB  
UPPER HIGH CENTROID ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN  
AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY HIGHLANDS WITH GENERAL STORM MOTION  
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. FINALLY, WITH THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR  
CORNERS AREA, HOT TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS  
WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN  
AND CENTRAL NM CLOSER TO THE UPPER HIGH CENTROID. AS A RESULT, A  
MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER  
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2025  
 
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH THE 596 DAM 500 MB  
UPPER HIGH CENTROID PIVOTING A LITTLE WEST TO THE UT/AZ BORDER. A  
SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER  
CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CO ROCKIES, SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPILL  
OVER INTO THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
FRIDAY EVENING. COME THE WEEKEND, THE 500 MB UPPER HIGH FURTHER  
WEAKENS TO 593 DAM AS IT MEANDERS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN AZ AND NM.  
THIS WEAKENING OF THE UPPER HIGH IS IN RESPONSE TO THE UNSEASONABLY  
STRONG UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH BROAD  
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S.  
SHORTWAVES AMONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH AND THE  
THE BROAD TROUGHING WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. DRIER MID  
LEVEL AIR SOUTH OF I-40 WILL HELP RESULT IN MUCH LESS SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY MAINLY CONFINED TO  
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL  
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE AUGUST.  
 
INTO NEXT WEEK, EXTENDED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A REINFORCING  
SHORTWAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN  
2/3RDS OF THE U.S. HELPING TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE UPPER HIGH AND  
SHIFT IT SOUTHEAST TO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER RGV OF TEXAS. THIS  
TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL SEND A REINFORCING AND STRONGER BACKDOOR  
FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST NM MONDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH  
ALL OF EASTERN NM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IN TERMS OF  
SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES, THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN NM MONDAY  
EXPANDING TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE BACKDOOR  
FRONT AND LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN  
TO BELOW AVERAGE AREAWIDE BY MID NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2025  
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.  
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL  
THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35KT.  
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL,  
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2025  
 
HOT AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH  
FRIDAY DUE TO AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. CLOCKWISE  
FLOW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION WILL HELP DIRECT ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN  
WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN  
NM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS. ANY WETTING  
RAINFALL WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAIN RANGES WITH GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD FOR NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE UPPER  
HIGH WEAKEN AND SHIFTS SOUTHWEST TOWARDS NORTHERN NM AND SOUTHERN  
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO AN UNSEASONABLY  
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S. THIS WILL  
RESULT IN A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND  
NORTH OF I-40 THIS WEEKEND, EVENTUALLY EXPANDING TO THE REST OF THE  
FORECAST AREA BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO  
COOL DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS COME THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
FARMINGTON...................... 68 98 67 97 / 10 10 20 10  
DULCE........................... 53 94 52 93 / 20 20 20 50  
CUBA............................ 57 91 57 89 / 20 20 20 30  
GALLUP.......................... 57 93 58 93 / 10 20 20 30  
EL MORRO........................ 57 88 57 88 / 20 30 30 40  
GRANTS.......................... 58 92 58 92 / 20 20 20 30  
QUEMADO......................... 58 87 58 88 / 20 40 30 40  
MAGDALENA....................... 62 87 62 88 / 10 20 10 10  
DATIL........................... 57 85 57 85 / 10 30 20 30  
RESERVE......................... 56 91 56 91 / 20 60 20 50  
GLENWOOD........................ 60 93 60 94 / 20 60 20 40  
CHAMA........................... 51 89 51 87 / 20 20 20 60  
LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 88 61 88 / 10 40 10 40  
PECOS........................... 56 85 56 86 / 10 30 5 20  
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 87 54 88 / 10 10 5 30  
RED RIVER....................... 46 78 46 78 / 10 10 5 30  
ANGEL FIRE...................... 40 80 39 80 / 10 20 0 20  
TAOS............................ 54 89 54 90 / 10 10 5 20  
MORA............................ 51 81 50 82 / 10 30 5 20  
ESPANOLA........................ 60 96 60 95 / 10 20 10 20  
SANTA FE........................ 60 87 60 87 / 10 30 10 20  
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 92 59 91 / 10 20 5 10  
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 69 93 69 93 / 10 20 10 10  
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 68 94 68 95 / 10 10 10 5  
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 97 67 97 / 10 10 10 5  
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 95 67 96 / 10 10 10 5  
BELEN........................... 65 95 64 96 / 10 10 5 0  
BERNALILLO...................... 65 97 65 96 / 10 20 10 10  
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 64 95 64 96 / 10 10 5 0  
CORRALES........................ 66 97 66 97 / 10 20 10 5  
LOS LUNAS....................... 64 96 65 96 / 10 10 5 0  
PLACITAS........................ 65 92 65 93 / 10 20 10 10  
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 96 66 96 / 10 10 10 5  
SOCORRO......................... 67 96 67 96 / 10 10 5 0  
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 61 87 61 88 / 10 20 10 10  
TIJERAS......................... 62 88 62 89 / 10 20 10 10  
EDGEWOOD........................ 58 89 57 90 / 10 20 5 5  
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 90 54 91 / 10 20 5 5  
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 84 58 85 / 10 10 0 5  
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 59 87 59 88 / 5 10 0 5  
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 86 58 86 / 5 10 0 5  
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 87 62 88 / 5 10 0 5  
RUIDOSO......................... 56 79 56 80 / 10 20 0 10  
CAPULIN......................... 54 84 54 84 / 5 5 0 0  
RATON........................... 53 89 53 88 / 5 5 0 5  
SPRINGER........................ 54 89 54 90 / 5 10 0 5  
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 84 54 85 / 10 20 0 10  
CLAYTON......................... 61 90 61 91 / 0 0 0 0  
ROY............................. 58 87 58 87 / 5 5 0 0  
CONCHAS......................... 63 93 64 94 / 5 5 0 0  
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 89 62 90 / 5 5 0 0  
TUCUMCARI....................... 61 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOVIS.......................... 65 92 64 93 / 5 5 0 0  
PORTALES........................ 64 92 64 93 / 5 5 0 0  
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 91 65 92 / 5 0 0 0  
ROSWELL......................... 67 94 68 95 / 10 5 0 0  
PICACHO......................... 61 88 61 89 / 10 5 0 5  
ELK............................. 58 85 57 86 / 10 10 0 10  
 

 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...71  
LONG TERM....71  
AVIATION...34  
 
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