125
FXUS65 KABQ 221130 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
530 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 521 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2025
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN TODAY WHERE
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND BRIEF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.
- MODERATE HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM TODAY WITH MAJOR HEAT RISK POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.
- A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD WETTER AND COOLER CONDITIONS IS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY FOR NORTHERN NM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, EXPANDING
TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2025
TODAY WILL SEE A DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE AS A DRIER, MORE STABLE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS SPREADS WEST/SOUTHWEST ACROSS NM. A FEW
GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN MTS THEN
MOVE WEST/SOUTHWEST INTO NEARBY HIGHLANDS THRU SUNSET. THE UPPER
HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER HOT DAY
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S AROUND FARMINGTON. ELSEWHERE, HIGHS
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
BY SATURDAY, AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL NUDGE THE UPPER HIGH WEST WITH MOIST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SPREADING INTO NORTHERN NM. LOW LEVEL RETURN
FLOW DEEPENING OVER EASTERN NM WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING LIFT
BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ALLOW STORMS TO IGNITE OVER THE
NORTHERN MTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH TOWARD THE I-40 CORRIDOR THRU SATURDAY EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 1.2" WITH
SLOW STORM MOTION. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE
NIGHT AS SHOWN BY SEVERAL 00Z CAMS. THICKER DEBRIS CLOUDS SUNDAY
MORNING MAY THEN DELAY CONVECTIVE INITIATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2025
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR SET UP TO SATURDAY BUT WITH A POTENTIAL
DELAYED START FROM THICKER MORNING CLOUD COVER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON STORM COVERAGE IS ALSO LOWER SUNDAY GIVEN KEY MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON THE ORIENTATION AND PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE HIGH
IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD BUT SOME MODELS HINT
AT A WEST TO EAST RIDGE AXIS WITH SUBSIDENCE LIMITING STORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NM. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR THE GREATEST
STORM COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN MTS AGAIN. STEERING FLOW WILL BE
WEAK AND PWATS ARE STILL HOLDING NEAR 1.2" SO STORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BEGIN RISING
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE HPCC BURN SCAR.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHOWN WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXITING THE
FRONT RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG, MOIST BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
ENTERING EASTERN NM MONDAY. THIS FEATURE INCREASES CONFIDENCE ON
A POTENTIAL UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS IS BECOMING ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NM AND THE PERMIAN BASIN. THIS MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE
FROM THE GILA REGION THRU THE LOWER RGV AND THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR FRONT IS SHOWN BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
SPREADS NORTH FROM MEXICO. THE 3-DAY PERIOD FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY
MAY BRING THE BULK OF THIS SUMMERS RAINFALL TO PARTS OF WESTERN NM
(WHICH WON'T TAKE MUCH). MEANWHILE, EASTERN NM WILL BE ABLE TO ADD
TO AN ALREADY IMPRESSIVE MONSOON SEASON. THE LATEST WPC EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK ALREADY HAS SLIGHT RISK AREAS ACROSS EASTERN NM
BEGINNING MONDAY. 7-DAY TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AVERAGE 2-4" FOR THE
NORTHERN MTS AND NORTHEAST NM WITH 0.50-1.0" FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM. DESPITE THESE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THERE MAY BE
SOME AREAS WITHIN THE MIDDLE/LOWER RGV AND WESTERN NM THAT STILL
STRUGGLE TO PICK UP 0.25" GIVEN THE NATURE OF CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2025
PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS AND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AFTER 3PM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE WEST/SOUTHWEST WITH
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS >40KT AND BRIEF RAINFALL. SOME SHOWERS MAY
LINGER THRU MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NM AND PERHAPS CREEP INTO THE
ABQ METRO ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2025
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY WILL
DRIFT SOUTH ALONG THE NM/AZ BORDER WHILE WEAKENING THRU MONDAY. THE
HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM TOWARD
THE PERMIAN BASIN BY WEDNESDAY. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER NORTHERN NM
SATURDAY THRU MONDAY. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25"-0.75" ARE
POSSIBLE FROM NEAR GALLUP AND GRANTS TO FARMINGTON, THE NORTHERN
MTS, AND FROM RATON AND LAS VEGAS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
MOST LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS. AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO TX NEXT WEEK, MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
SURGE INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 0.25"-0.75"
MAY FALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WITH ANOTHER 1-3" POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHEAST NM AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS. TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER IN THIS PATTERN WITH MANY AREAS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, THERE MAY
STILL BE AREAS THAT RECEIVE <0.25" NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND THE
MIDDLE/LOWER RGV, WHILE PARTS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS MAY PICK
UP LOCALLY >4".
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 97 67 94 67 / 20 30 20 60
DULCE........................... 93 50 89 51 / 50 50 60 70
CUBA............................ 89 58 87 57 / 30 40 50 60
GALLUP.......................... 93 57 89 56 / 30 30 50 60
EL MORRO........................ 88 58 85 57 / 30 30 70 60
GRANTS.......................... 92 58 88 57 / 20 20 50 50
QUEMADO......................... 88 58 86 57 / 30 20 50 40
MAGDALENA....................... 88 62 86 62 / 10 5 20 10
DATIL........................... 86 57 84 56 / 20 10 30 20
RESERVE......................... 92 56 91 55 / 30 20 30 20
GLENWOOD........................ 93 60 93 60 / 30 10 20 10
CHAMA........................... 87 49 81 49 / 50 50 70 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 87 61 83 60 / 30 30 60 50
PECOS........................... 85 56 80 55 / 10 20 40 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 88 54 80 54 / 30 40 70 70
RED RIVER....................... 78 46 69 45 / 20 30 70 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 80 40 72 40 / 20 20 70 60
TAOS............................ 89 54 82 52 / 20 30 60 60
MORA............................ 82 51 75 50 / 10 20 60 50
ESPANOLA........................ 94 61 90 59 / 20 30 50 60
SANTA FE........................ 87 62 83 61 / 20 20 40 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 91 61 87 60 / 20 20 30 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 93 71 91 68 / 20 10 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 94 68 93 67 / 10 10 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 96 67 95 66 / 10 10 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 95 69 93 68 / 10 10 20 30
BELEN........................... 95 64 95 64 / 10 5 5 10
BERNALILLO...................... 96 67 93 66 / 10 20 20 30
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 95 64 95 63 / 10 10 10 20
CORRALES........................ 96 67 95 67 / 10 20 20 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 95 65 94 65 / 10 5 10 20
PLACITAS........................ 91 66 89 65 / 20 20 20 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 95 67 93 67 / 10 20 20 30
SOCORRO......................... 96 66 95 66 / 0 0 5 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 88 61 85 60 / 20 20 30 30
TIJERAS......................... 88 62 86 61 / 20 20 30 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 90 56 87 55 / 10 20 20 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 90 53 87 54 / 5 10 20 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 84 57 80 57 / 0 5 20 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 87 57 86 57 / 0 5 20 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 86 58 85 57 / 0 0 10 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 88 61 88 61 / 5 0 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 79 56 79 55 / 5 0 5 0
CAPULIN......................... 83 53 75 53 / 5 20 50 40
RATON........................... 88 54 79 52 / 10 20 50 40
SPRINGER........................ 88 56 82 55 / 5 20 40 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 85 54 80 54 / 10 10 40 40
CLAYTON......................... 89 61 84 60 / 0 10 20 30
ROY............................. 86 58 82 58 / 5 10 20 40
CONCHAS......................... 92 62 90 63 / 0 5 10 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 89 60 87 60 / 0 0 10 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 88 60 87 61 / 0 0 0 20
CLOVIS.......................... 92 63 92 63 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 92 62 93 63 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 91 63 90 64 / 0 0 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 93 65 94 66 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 88 59 88 60 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 86 56 85 55 / 5 0 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page