265
FXUS65 KABQ 231139 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
539 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 512 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY BEFORE EXPANDING TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- THROUGH WEDNESDAY, STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL,
WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ON BURN SCARS.
OTHER AREAS WHICH RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. WEDNESDAY MAY FEEL MORE LIKE FALL FOR
MANY AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN UT THIS MORNING, BEFORE WOBBLING BACK OVER
NORTHWEST NM LATE TODAY AND OVER SOUTHERN NM SUNDAY. AS IT DOES
SO, IT WILL BE WEAKENING FROM 596DAM TO 593DAM. THE MONSOON PLUME
OF MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY TAKING THE SCENIC ROUTE INTO NM -
TRAVELING THROUGH AZ/SOCAL NORTHWARD BEFORE ROUNDING THE HIGH AND
BACK INTO NM. AS SUCH, MORE MOISTURE RESIDES ACROSS NORTHERN NM,
WHILE A DRY SLOT IS WEDGED ACROSS SOUTHERN NM. THE DRY SLOT WILL
NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED ON SUNDAY, BUT BETTER MOISTURE WILL STILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTH. THEREFORE, AREAS NORTH OF I-40 WILL BE
FAVORED FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC TODAY, BUT WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE EAST OR NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN PWATS, THANKS
TO A WEAK BOUNDARY NOSING INTO NORTHEAST NM THIS MORNING, COMBINED
WITH THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HERMITS PEAK CALF CANYON BURN SCAR
BETWEEN NOON AND 9 PM MDT, THOUGH SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
MAY OCCUR NORTHEAST OF THERE PER THE LATEST CAMS. CAN'T RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AS WELL GIVEN
MODEST INSTABILITY AND 20-30KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. PWATS MAY
HAVE A SLIGHT DOWNTICK ON SUNDAY, BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2025
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, A WEAK WAVE WILL SPARK ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER
THE COLORADO SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NM. THESE STORMS WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST, HELPING TO PUSH A
BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM MONDAY. MEANWHILE, THE
UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN NM AND
AZ. THE BOUNDARY, AND THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEHIND IT, COMBINED
WITH LOWER H5 HEIGHTS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE ON MONDAY, WITH RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM. BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5" OF RAIN SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS NORTHEAST NM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE IN
TERMS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
TREK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER TEXAS WHILE A BAGGY TROUGH SETS UP OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL SET UP TRADITIONAL MID-LEVEL MONSOON
FLOW OVER NM WITH PWATS CLIMBING BETWEEN 1 AND 1.2 INCHES. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NM
AND WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD YIELD WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TUESDAY, LINGERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH 300MB. THIS BRINGS UP CONCERNS ABOUT INSTABILITY AND
RAINFALL RATES BOTH DAYS, BUT ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASINGLY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THUS, THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE A
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN EVENT, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THANKS TO PROLONGED EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESSES. THAT IS, THE RAINFALL WON'T COME ALL AT ONCE AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE IN THE MONSOON, BUT THE RAINFALL WILL BE PERSISTENT
SUCH THAT OVER TIME, FLOODING MAY OCCUR. THOSE AREAS THAT WILL
SEE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY MAY SEE FLOODING ISSUES
WITH THE PERSISTENT RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY WILL
BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE STEADY RAINFALL BY
LATE IN THE DAY.
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL LEAD TO MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON TUESDAY WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY, AND ALL AREAS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. THESE TEMPS MIGHT MAKE IT FEEL A
LITTLE LIKE FALL.
DRIER AIR WILL START TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NM ON THURSDAY AS
WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN. THIS WILL FOCUS THE MOISTURE
PLUME OVER EASTERN NM. THE PLUME MAY BE FURTHER DISRUPTED ON
FRIDAY WITH WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z. THEREAFTER, TODAY'S
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD BE
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS NORTHERN NM THAN ON FRIDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES, AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS MAY RESULT IN PEAK
GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC. A FEW
STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS TO
45KTS. MUCH OF THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY 06Z, BUT A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH 09Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 100 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2025
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHERN NM
WILL BE FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY, THEN
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NEARLY
ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BUT AREAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM COULD SEE
AS MUCH AS 2-5 INCHES. THIS WILL KEEP ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AT BAY. A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES
WILL BE ON TAP THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN THE TREND WILL SLOWLY
REVERSE DURING THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 93 67 88 64 / 30 60 50 60
DULCE........................... 87 50 83 50 / 70 60 70 70
CUBA............................ 85 57 80 57 / 40 60 50 60
GALLUP.......................... 89 57 85 55 / 50 50 50 50
EL MORRO........................ 85 57 82 57 / 50 50 60 50
GRANTS.......................... 88 58 84 57 / 40 50 60 50
QUEMADO......................... 86 59 84 59 / 50 40 50 40
MAGDALENA....................... 86 63 85 63 / 10 20 30 20
DATIL........................... 84 57 82 58 / 30 20 40 30
RESERVE......................... 90 56 88 57 / 30 20 30 20
GLENWOOD........................ 93 61 92 60 / 20 10 20 10
CHAMA........................... 80 48 77 49 / 70 70 70 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 82 59 80 59 / 50 60 60 60
PECOS........................... 80 56 80 56 / 40 50 40 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 78 52 78 53 / 70 70 70 70
RED RIVER....................... 67 45 69 45 / 70 70 70 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 71 41 73 41 / 70 70 70 60
TAOS............................ 81 53 81 52 / 60 70 60 60
MORA............................ 74 49 77 50 / 60 60 50 60
ESPANOLA........................ 89 58 87 59 / 50 60 40 60
SANTA FE........................ 82 61 81 61 / 40 50 40 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 87 60 85 59 / 30 40 30 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 89 69 87 69 / 20 30 30 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 92 67 89 68 / 10 20 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 94 66 91 67 / 10 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 92 68 89 68 / 20 20 20 30
BELEN........................... 94 64 92 66 / 10 20 10 20
BERNALILLO...................... 93 66 89 66 / 20 20 20 30
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 93 64 91 65 / 10 20 10 20
CORRALES........................ 93 67 90 67 / 20 20 30 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 93 66 91 67 / 10 20 10 20
PLACITAS........................ 89 66 86 64 / 20 30 30 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 92 66 89 67 / 20 20 30 30
SOCORRO......................... 93 66 92 67 / 5 10 10 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 84 59 82 60 / 20 30 30 30
TIJERAS......................... 86 61 84 62 / 20 20 30 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 86 56 85 57 / 20 20 20 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 87 55 86 56 / 10 20 20 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 81 56 80 58 / 10 30 20 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 85 57 84 60 / 10 20 20 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 85 57 84 59 / 5 10 20 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 87 61 85 62 / 5 10 10 5
RUIDOSO......................... 78 56 77 57 / 10 10 20 0
CAPULIN......................... 74 53 78 53 / 50 60 50 70
RATON........................... 78 53 82 52 / 60 60 70 70
SPRINGER........................ 81 55 85 55 / 50 70 50 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 78 53 80 55 / 50 60 40 50
CLAYTON......................... 83 59 86 61 / 20 30 20 60
ROY............................. 81 58 83 59 / 30 50 20 50
CONCHAS......................... 90 64 91 64 / 20 30 10 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 88 61 88 63 / 10 30 10 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 89 61 90 62 / 10 20 0 30
CLOVIS.......................... 90 63 89 66 / 5 10 0 10
PORTALES........................ 91 64 90 67 / 5 10 0 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 90 65 90 66 / 5 20 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 94 66 94 67 / 0 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 87 59 87 61 / 0 5 5 0
ELK............................. 83 56 83 57 / 0 5 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NMZ214-
215-229.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...34
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