780
FXUS65 KABQ 232332 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
532 PM MDT SAT AUG 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 526 PM MDT SAT AUG 23 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY BEFORE EXPANDING TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- THROUGH WEDNESDAY, STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL,
WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ON RECENT WILDFIRE BURN
SCARS. OTHER AREAS WHICH RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. WEDNESDAY MAY FEEL MORE LIKE FALL FOR
MANY AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2025
THE MONSOON HIGH HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY FROM WHERE IT WAS A
COUPLE DAYS AGO, BROADLY EXPANDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES.
THIS IS KEEPING OUR FLOW ALOFT VERY LIGHT. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY
UNIFORMLY DISTRIBUTED WITH PWATS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 0.8
AND 1.2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS
WHERE LAST NIGHT'S WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY INVADED. BETTER
INSTABILITY IS FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF NM TODAY, AND THIS
IS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DRIFTING SLOWLY AND SOMEWHAT SOUTHWARD
WITH VARIABLE HEADINGS.
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD DEBRIS ARE MODELED TO HANG AROUND THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT ENOUGH CLEARING AND DESTABILIZATION BY
AFTERNOON WILL YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER HIGH WOULD WEAKEN A BIT MORE
AND SLIDE JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD, ENABLING CONVECTIVE CELLS TO
CREEP FARTHER INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL RANGES AS WELL SUNDAY. STORM MOTIONS WOULD REMAIN
SLOW, ESPECIALLY OVER WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN NM CLOSER TO
THE UPPER HIGH WHILE STORMS FARTHER NORTH GAIN A SUBTLE EASTWARD
COMPONENT TO THEIR HEADING. ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS,
HIGHLANDS, AND NEARBY NORTHEASTERN HIGH PLAINS, BUT THE THREAT
SEEMS TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO FOREGO ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WOULD REMAIN SEASONABLE ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2025
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL NOT SHIFT MUCH INTO MONDAY, BUT
THE OVERALL ORIENTATION WILL START TO ELONGATE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS STRONG NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT DIP INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DIP
INTO THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THESE AREAS WITH EAST NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS FILTERING INTO NORTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL NM MONDAY. THIS
WILL PROVIDE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE EAST FACES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND PERHAPS SOME MOISTURE/SURFACE CONVERGENCE TOWARD THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WHEN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL BE FAVORED. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL ACT TO COOL NORTHEASTERN ZONES BY A FEW DEGREES WITH MINIMAL
CHANGES ELSEWHERE, AND THE BOUNDARY WILL STIR UP GUSTY GAP/CANYON
WINDS IN EASTERN ALBUQUERQUE, SANTA FE AND OTHER VULNERABLE
CENTRAL AREAS AS IT ARRIVES.
THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO RELOCATE TOWARD SOUTHEAST TX TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LOWER PRESSURE HEIGHTS OVER NM WHILE MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW (BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT) IS ESTABLISHED.
PWATS WILL RESPOND UPWARD WITH MANY AREAS RISING ABOVE 1.0 INCH,
AND INCREASED COVERAGE OF MORE EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL ENSUE.
SOME STABLE AIR IN EASTERN ZONES COULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY, AND
TO SOME DEGREE RAINFALL RATES THERE, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE, CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM SHOULD SEE HIGH COVERAGE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINING STORMS. LOTS OF STORMS COULD SURVIVE
WELL INTO THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AMPLE CLOUD DEBRIS
LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY AS A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH-TO-NORTH
MONSOON PLUME GETS ESTABLISHED WITH A WEAK LOW OFFSHORE OF CA.
EXTENSIVE LEFTOVER CLOUDS WILL POSE BIG CAVEATS AND UNCERTAINTIES
WITH INSTABILITY AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY, BUT OVERALL
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGH POPS (EVEN IF IT IS JUST MORE
STRATIFORM LIGHTER RAIN) SEEM APPROPRIATE.
THE MONSOON MOISTURE WOULD START TO LEAN OVER MORE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND MORE-SO INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL INTRODUCE
SOME DRYING INTO WESTERN ZONES, BUT SHOULD NOT FULLY ERODE AWAY
THE MOISTURE PLUME LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT SAT AUG 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY IN SCT/NUM SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NM BOTH THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS ARE AT KLVS THIS EVENING AND KGUP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2025
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO ARE GAINING COVERAGE
THIS WEEKEND WITH ALL CELLS GROWING MORE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SOAKING RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN NORTHERN ZONES.
STORM COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND OVER MORE OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN AREAS INTO MONDAY, AND ONTO REMAINING PARTS
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
WETTING RAINFALL, EVEN IN FAR WESTERN NM WHICH HAS BEEN MOSTLY VOID
OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL SO FAR THIS MONSOON. HUMIDITY WILL TREND
UP SIGNIFICANTLY THESE DAYS WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF 80
PERCENT OR BETTER IN ALL AREAS BOTH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY
MORNING. HUMIDITY WILL START TO SUBSIDE IN WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY, BUT REMAINING AREAS WILL STILL OBSERVE
ELEVATED HUMIDITY VALUES WITH DECENT CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
WETTING RAINFALL, ALBEIT MORE SCATTERED OR SPLOTCHY IN NATURE.
PREVAILING WINDS WILL TURN A BIT GUSTY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPILL INTO CENTRAL AREAS FROM THE
EAST NORTHEAST WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 25 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, WIND CONCERNS WILL MOSTLY ORIGINATE FROM BRIEF-LIVED
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 67 89 64 87 / 70 60 60 40
DULCE........................... 51 85 51 83 / 80 80 80 70
CUBA............................ 57 84 56 82 / 70 80 70 70
GALLUP.......................... 57 86 56 85 / 70 70 60 50
EL MORRO........................ 57 81 57 81 / 60 80 60 70
GRANTS.......................... 58 85 56 84 / 60 80 60 70
QUEMADO......................... 59 84 59 84 / 50 60 50 70
MAGDALENA....................... 63 84 63 84 / 10 40 30 50
DATIL........................... 57 81 57 82 / 30 60 30 60
RESERVE......................... 56 89 57 88 / 30 40 30 50
GLENWOOD........................ 60 92 60 92 / 10 30 10 30
CHAMA........................... 49 78 49 76 / 80 90 80 80
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 80 59 78 / 60 80 70 80
PECOS........................... 55 81 55 79 / 40 60 70 80
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 53 79 53 75 / 80 90 80 90
RED RIVER....................... 44 71 45 67 / 80 90 80 90
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 74 43 70 / 70 80 80 90
TAOS............................ 54 81 54 78 / 70 80 70 80
MORA............................ 50 77 50 74 / 70 70 70 80
ESPANOLA........................ 59 87 58 85 / 60 70 70 70
SANTA FE........................ 60 84 59 82 / 40 60 70 70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 88 58 86 / 40 60 60 60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 88 66 88 / 30 40 60 60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 69 89 67 89 / 30 40 50 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 62 91 61 91 / 20 40 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 68 90 66 90 / 30 40 50 40
BELEN........................... 66 92 66 92 / 10 30 30 30
BERNALILLO...................... 65 90 64 89 / 40 50 60 50
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 62 91 61 91 / 20 30 40 30
CORRALES........................ 66 91 64 90 / 30 50 60 50
LOS LUNAS....................... 64 91 63 91 / 20 30 40 30
PLACITAS........................ 64 88 63 86 / 30 50 50 50
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 89 66 89 / 30 50 60 50
SOCORRO......................... 67 93 68 94 / 10 20 10 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 60 83 59 82 / 30 50 50 60
TIJERAS......................... 62 85 62 84 / 30 40 50 60
EDGEWOOD........................ 58 85 58 84 / 20 40 40 50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 86 55 86 / 20 40 40 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 57 81 58 79 / 20 30 40 50
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 58 85 59 85 / 10 30 20 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 84 59 85 / 10 20 20 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 85 62 86 / 5 20 5 20
RUIDOSO......................... 52 78 54 79 / 0 20 5 30
CAPULIN......................... 53 78 53 72 / 60 60 80 80
RATON........................... 53 81 53 75 / 60 80 70 80
SPRINGER........................ 54 86 54 80 / 60 60 70 80
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 81 54 78 / 50 60 60 80
CLAYTON......................... 60 87 60 79 / 40 30 70 50
ROY............................. 58 84 58 79 / 50 40 60 70
CONCHAS......................... 63 91 64 88 / 40 20 40 50
SANTA ROSA...................... 62 88 63 87 / 30 20 30 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 62 89 62 86 / 30 10 30 30
CLOVIS.......................... 64 91 66 90 / 10 10 20 20
PORTALES........................ 64 91 66 91 / 10 10 10 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 90 66 91 / 20 10 20 20
ROSWELL......................... 67 93 68 95 / 5 10 0 0
PICACHO......................... 61 87 62 89 / 5 10 0 20
ELK............................. 57 82 58 84 / 0 20 0 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ214-215-229.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...11
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