125
FXUS65 KABQ 241145 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
545 AM MDT SUN AUG 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 537 AM MDT SUN AUG 24 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE EXPANDING TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ON RECENT WILDFIRE BURN SCARS. OTHER
AREAS WHICH RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. WEDNESDAY MAY FEEL MORE LIKE FALL FOR
MANY AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2025
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING. AFTER A QUIET MORNING, THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN BY 19Z BEFORE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN NM BY WAY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. TODAY DIFFERS FROM YESTERDAY IN THAT THERE
ISN'T A BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NM INCREASING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE MORNING, BUT THERE IS A WEAK WAVE SLIDING ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WAVE SHOULD HELP WITH SOMEWHAT FASTER STORM MOTIONS
TOWARD THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY. SO WITH THESE THINGS IN MIND,
HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY FOR THE HPCC BURN
SCAR, THOUGH IT IS LIKELY THE SCAR WILL RECEIVE ADDITIONAL RAIN.
BASED ON RIVER GAGES IN THE AREA, THE SCAR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THE WATER WELL FROM YESTERDAY (AND CURRENTLY).
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO OKLAHOMA
MONDAY, IT WILL SEND A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO NORTHEAST NM MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE REINFORCED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE CONVECTION IN OK AND KS. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND EAST
MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY (AT
LEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN) AND STORM MOTIONS
WILL BE SLOW TO THE SOUTH (VARIABLE ELSEWHERE). IT'S LIKELY THAT
HPCC WILL NEED ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH. THE BOUNDARY, AIDED BY ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN NM, WILL PLOW THROUGH THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY EVENING. EASTERLY WIND
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THE ABQ METRO, BUT COULD BE AS
HIGH AS 50 MPH PENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION TO THE
EAST. AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES WESTWARD, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG IT, THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO BE AS ROBUST AS THE 00Z NAM IS DEPICTING. NONETHELESS,
IT MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND POTENTIALLY
PAST SUNRISE TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2025
WITH PRECIPITATION LINGERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THERE
MAY NOT BE A SUBSTANTIAL BREAK BETWEEN THAT AND THE NEW CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES, HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THAT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO
TAP INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS IN QUESTION. AS IT LOOKS NOW, MUCH
OF EASTERN NM WILL BE QUITE STABLE, WHILE WESTERN NM REMAINS
UNSTABLE, AND THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE STATE INCLUDING THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL STILL HAVE SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN RATES SHOULD BE GREATER ACROSS
WESTERN NM ON TUESDAY. BUT THE MODEST INSTABILITY, WEAKENING H5
HEIGHTS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. IF
EASTERN NM RECEIVE PRECIPITATION, IT WILL LIKELY BE LATER IN THE
DAY AFTER THE ATMOSPHERE HAS MORE TIME TO RECOVER AFTER MONDAY'S
CONVECTION AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MAY NOT HAVE MUCH, IF ANY,
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
THE SAME QUESTION REGARDING INSTABILITY IS VALID FOR WEDNESDAY AS
WELL AS TUESDAY'S ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THOUGH, SOME MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY FOR
WEDNESDAY THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS, IT APPEARS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WILL BE FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION WHERE THE
TRADITIONAL MOISTURE PLUME IS MOST ROBUST. FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUE AND WED AS RAINFALL IMPACTS
SIMILAR AREAS EACH DAY.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO NM ON THURSDAY, SHIFTING
THE PLUME OVER EASTERN NM AND DISRUPTING IT. THE EC AND CMC SHOW
WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING BACK OVER SOUTHERN NM BY FRIDAY, WHICH
WOULD KEEP ANY REMAINING MOISTURE IN PLACE AND ALLOW IT TO BE
RECYCLED WITH ADDITIONAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS SHOWS A
LITTLE MORE WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO NUDGE IN DRIER AIR. MEAN
MODELED PWAT VALUES IN ABQ FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS AROUND 0.85", DOWN
FROM THE NEAR 1.2" ON WEDNESDAY. THUS, THE OVERALL FORECAST IS
FOR STORM COVERAGE TO DECREASE AFTER WEDNESDAY, WITH REMAINING
STORMS FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT SUN AUG 24 2025
MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED EARLY THIS MORNING AND
A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 19Z.
THEREAFTER, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MAINLY NORTHERN NM, THOUGH A FEW
STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST AS WELL. STORMS COVERAGE WILL
EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOWERED VISIBILITY AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS NEAR
35KT MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STORM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z MON BEFORE DIMINISHING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR NORTHERN NM
TODAY, POTENTIALLY SPREAD A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH ON MONDAY AND
THEN EXPAND TO ALL AREAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY, AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL BE A CONCERN EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE THROUGH MID WEEK. THEREAFTER, STORM
COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD FOR THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH STORMS FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY OUTFLOW, THE OTHER MAIN
WIND CONCERN IS A STRONG GAP WIND IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY
EVENING WHERE GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH ARE LIKELY, THOUGH COULD BE AS
HIGH AS 50 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 88 65 89 65 / 50 50 40 60
DULCE........................... 83 49 83 51 / 60 70 70 70
CUBA............................ 82 54 81 55 / 60 70 60 70
GALLUP.......................... 86 56 85 55 / 60 40 60 60
EL MORRO........................ 81 56 82 55 / 70 70 70 70
GRANTS.......................... 84 57 85 57 / 70 60 70 70
QUEMADO......................... 84 59 84 57 / 50 50 60 60
MAGDALENA....................... 84 62 84 60 / 30 30 40 40
DATIL........................... 82 57 81 56 / 50 40 50 60
RESERVE......................... 88 57 88 55 / 40 30 50 40
GLENWOOD........................ 91 62 92 60 / 20 20 30 30
CHAMA........................... 76 47 76 49 / 70 70 70 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 80 58 78 58 / 60 60 70 70
PECOS........................... 80 55 78 54 / 50 60 70 70
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 78 52 75 54 / 70 70 70 70
RED RIVER....................... 69 44 66 45 / 70 70 70 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 73 39 69 40 / 70 60 70 70
TAOS............................ 81 52 79 53 / 60 70 70 70
MORA............................ 77 49 73 49 / 60 60 70 70
ESPANOLA........................ 86 58 85 59 / 50 60 60 70
SANTA FE........................ 82 59 80 59 / 40 60 70 70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 85 59 84 57 / 40 60 60 70
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 87 68 88 66 / 30 40 60 70
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 90 66 90 65 / 30 40 50 60
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 91 66 92 65 / 20 40 40 60
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 89 67 90 66 / 30 50 40 60
BELEN........................... 92 65 93 64 / 20 30 30 50
BERNALILLO...................... 90 66 90 64 / 30 50 50 60
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 92 63 92 62 / 20 30 30 50
CORRALES........................ 90 67 90 65 / 30 50 50 60
LOS LUNAS....................... 92 65 92 64 / 20 30 30 50
PLACITAS........................ 87 64 87 62 / 30 50 50 70
RIO RANCHO...................... 89 66 89 65 / 30 50 50 60
SOCORRO......................... 92 68 94 66 / 20 20 20 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 82 59 82 57 / 30 40 60 70
TIJERAS......................... 84 61 84 59 / 30 40 60 70
EDGEWOOD........................ 85 57 84 55 / 30 40 60 70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 86 56 86 54 / 30 40 60 70
CLINES CORNERS.................. 81 58 80 55 / 20 40 70 70
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 84 59 85 57 / 20 20 50 60
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 83 60 85 57 / 20 20 30 60
CARRIZOZO....................... 85 63 87 62 / 10 10 20 20
RUIDOSO......................... 77 57 78 56 / 20 10 20 10
CAPULIN......................... 79 52 72 52 / 50 70 70 70
RATON........................... 82 52 76 53 / 60 70 70 70
SPRINGER........................ 85 54 79 54 / 50 60 70 70
LAS VEGAS....................... 80 54 77 53 / 50 60 70 70
CLAYTON......................... 87 60 78 57 / 20 70 50 70
ROY............................. 84 57 78 56 / 30 60 70 70
CONCHAS......................... 92 64 87 60 / 20 50 50 60
SANTA ROSA...................... 89 63 87 59 / 20 30 40 60
TUCUMCARI....................... 91 62 86 57 / 5 40 20 60
CLOVIS.......................... 90 66 89 62 / 5 20 10 40
PORTALES........................ 91 67 91 62 / 5 20 10 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 91 67 91 63 / 5 20 10 40
ROSWELL......................... 94 68 96 67 / 5 10 5 20
PICACHO......................... 87 62 89 60 / 10 10 10 20
ELK............................. 83 58 85 57 / 10 10 10 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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