296
FXUS65 KABQ 241956
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
156 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1214 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY. STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY ON THE HERMITS PEAK-CALF CANYON WILDFIRE BURN SCAR
AND NEARBY NORTHEASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF RAIN WITH MANY AREAS RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2025
LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS IS CURRENTLY OUTLINING A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION (MCV) IN SOUTHEAST SAN JUAN COUNTY. LOOKING MORE
BROADLY, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN A BIT MORE,
SAGGING SOUTHWARD OF ITS RECENT FOUR CORNERS PERCH. ON THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE, A CONVECTIVELY AIDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF NM
FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
CELLS AND CLUSTERS TENDING TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST WITH A
SMALLER SUBSET SUSTAINING THEMSELVES INTO THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD IN
TANDEM WITH A LONGER WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SEND A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NORTHEAST NM BY LATE MONDAY MORNING,
BRINGING MOIST, UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS, HIGHLANDS,
AND HIGH PLAINS TO THE EAST. PWATS WILL RISE CLOSER TO 1.0 INCH
OVER THE SANGRES MONDAY WITH AREAS TO THE EAST JUMPING UP TO
1.2-1.4 INCHES. THIS EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTRASTED WITH LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INTRODUCE DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR
THAT WILL HELP SUSTAIN AND PROLONG STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. CAMS SHOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SANGRES BEFORE PROPAGATING EASTWARD WITH
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS DUMPING HEAVY RAIN OVER THE HEADWATERS OF
THE UPPER CANADIAN, MORA, AND GALLINAS RIVERS. GIVEN THE SOIL
MOISTURE HAS CLIMBED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAY'S RAINS OVER THE
SANGRES PLUS WHATEVER FALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT, HAVE OPTED TO GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SEVERAL OF THESE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES. THE FRONT WILL SPILL INTO THE UPPER AND MIDDLE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING, INDUCING A GUSTY GAP/CANYON
WIND WHILE ALSO SPREADING DEEPER MOISTURE FARTHER WEST. EVEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON, CONVECTION IS MODELED TO BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF WESTERN NM, AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MOIST FRONT WILL ONLY ENHANCE THIS ACTIVITY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. MANY NORTHERN ZONES COULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS
SURVIVE THROUGH DAWN TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2025
MUCH OF EASTERN NM WILL BE WORKED OVER AND STABLE BY TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT'S STORMS. THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD IS MODELED TO DESTABILIZE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT COPIOUS LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE
PREVIOUS MORNING'S RAIN POSES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY THAT THIS
WOULD HAPPEN. BY THIS TIME, THE UPPER HIGH WOULD BE SITUATING
ITSELF FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO TX WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND DRAWING UP
CONTINUED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WHICH
CAN OFTEN BE SHROUDED WITH EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. POPS
REMAIN HIGH ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWN, BUT MUCH
OF THE RAIN COULD FALL AT CONSIDERABLY SLOWER RATES DUE TO
LIMITATIONS ON INSTABILITY AND INCREASED STRATIFORM PROPERTIES.
WEDNESDAY IS STILL MODELED AS THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE
UPPER HIGH OVER WEST TX AND A CONTINUED PRESENCE OF DEEP MONSOON
MOISTURE OVER NM AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
RATHER THAN SOUTHERLY. THIS SHOULD KEEP MANY ZONES WITH
CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WHILE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES HOST
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS. AGAIN, THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES WITH
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY, BUT MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TOWARD MORE
LIKELIHOOD OF DESTABILIZING, EVEN WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS BACK WESTWARD,
SOMEWHERE NEAR SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA WITH WEAK DEFINITION. SOME
WESTERLIES WOULD START TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
ROCKIES, PERHAPS INTRODUCING A BIT OF DRYING INTO NORTHWESTERN OR
WEST CENTRAL NM, BUT MUCH OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST
IN NM. THIS WILL KEEP THE TYPICAL HIGH TERRAIN AREAS FAVORED FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION WHILE ANOTHER WEAK WIND SHIFT AIDES THE
NORTHEASTERN TO EAST CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF
OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW CELLS
MAKING THEIR WAY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PEAKS. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF SLOW-MOVING HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS, AND
SMALL HAIL. STORM ACTIVITY WILL REDUCE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING,
BUT SCATTERED STORMS WILL SURVIVE BEYOND MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY. STORMS WILL MULTIPLY OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY AS A MOIST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES.
STORMS IN NORTHEASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS, AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1214 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2025
VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF NEW MEXICO ARE BUILDING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHER MOISTURE AND INCREASED SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
ALLOW ANY CELLS TO PRODUCE SOAKING RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGH
TERRAIN NORTHERN ZONES TODAY WITH SCATTERED PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
STORMS LASTING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY MONDAY, A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT WILL CATALYZE AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE, FIRST
OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS BEFORE EXPANDING OVER MORE OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN AREAS INTO MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY, AND
WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME, MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SOAKING RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FLASH
FLOODING. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY THESE DAYS WITH
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF 80 PERCENT OR BETTER IN MOST AREAS TUESDAY
MORNING, WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. HUMIDITY
WILL START TO REDUCE IN FAR WESTERN NM ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY, BUT REMAINING AREAS WILL STILL OBSERVE ELEVATED
HUMIDITY VALUES WITH DECENT CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL WETTING
RAINFALL, JUST ON A MORE SCATTERED BASIS. WHILE MOST WIND
CONCERNS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, ORIGINATING FROM BRIEF THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS, THERE WILL BE RECURRING GAP WINDS IN SOME VULNERABLE
CENTRAL AREAS. LOOK FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THESE GAP WIND-PRONE
AREAS SUCH AS ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
TUESDAY EVENING WHEN THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND/OR ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOWS SPILL IN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 64 89 65 82 / 50 50 70 50
DULCE........................... 51 84 52 77 / 60 70 80 80
CUBA............................ 56 83 54 78 / 60 70 70 70
GALLUP.......................... 56 85 56 81 / 50 70 70 60
EL MORRO........................ 57 81 55 78 / 60 80 80 70
GRANTS.......................... 57 85 56 81 / 60 70 70 70
QUEMADO......................... 58 83 56 82 / 40 70 60 60
MAGDALENA....................... 62 83 60 82 / 30 50 40 50
DATIL........................... 57 81 55 80 / 30 70 50 60
RESERVE......................... 56 89 55 86 / 30 50 40 50
GLENWOOD........................ 61 92 60 88 / 20 40 20 50
CHAMA........................... 49 77 49 71 / 70 80 80 80
LOS ALAMOS...................... 59 79 57 75 / 60 80 80 70
PECOS........................... 55 79 54 72 / 50 70 80 70
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 53 76 53 72 / 70 80 80 80
RED RIVER....................... 44 67 45 65 / 70 80 80 80
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 70 47 68 / 60 80 80 80
TAOS............................ 54 79 54 74 / 60 80 80 70
MORA............................ 50 73 49 68 / 60 80 80 70
ESPANOLA........................ 59 86 57 82 / 60 70 80 60
SANTA FE........................ 61 83 59 77 / 50 70 80 70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 87 57 81 / 50 70 70 60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 89 63 83 / 40 60 70 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 67 90 64 84 / 40 50 70 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 60 91 59 87 / 40 50 60 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 91 64 85 / 50 50 70 40
BELEN........................... 66 92 64 89 / 30 40 50 30
BERNALILLO...................... 64 91 62 85 / 50 60 70 50
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 61 91 60 87 / 40 40 60 40
CORRALES........................ 64 91 62 86 / 50 60 70 50
LOS LUNAS....................... 64 91 63 88 / 30 40 60 30
PLACITAS........................ 63 88 60 82 / 50 60 70 50
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 90 63 84 / 50 50 70 50
SOCORRO......................... 68 93 66 91 / 20 30 40 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 83 56 77 / 40 60 70 50
TIJERAS......................... 62 85 59 79 / 40 60 70 50
EDGEWOOD........................ 59 85 56 78 / 40 60 60 50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 55 86 55 79 / 40 60 60 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 80 54 71 / 40 60 60 50
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 60 85 56 80 / 20 40 50 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 85 57 80 / 20 30 40 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 63 87 62 83 / 10 20 20 40
RUIDOSO......................... 53 80 53 74 / 10 20 20 50
CAPULIN......................... 54 71 52 68 / 70 70 80 70
RATON........................... 53 75 53 70 / 60 70 80 70
SPRINGER........................ 54 80 55 73 / 60 70 80 60
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 77 53 70 / 50 80 80 70
CLAYTON......................... 60 76 57 70 / 60 50 80 50
ROY............................. 57 78 56 70 / 50 60 80 50
CONCHAS......................... 63 87 61 78 / 40 50 70 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 63 87 60 78 / 30 40 60 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 62 85 59 76 / 30 30 70 30
CLOVIS.......................... 66 90 61 78 / 20 20 40 20
PORTALES........................ 66 90 61 80 / 20 20 30 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 67 91 62 81 / 20 20 40 20
ROSWELL......................... 67 96 67 88 / 0 10 10 10
PICACHO......................... 62 90 61 82 / 5 10 10 30
ELK............................. 58 85 58 78 / 5 10 5 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
NMZ214-215-228-229-231-232.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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