515
FXUS65 KABQ 251148 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 542 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY, AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ON THE
HERMITS PEAK-CALF CANYON WILDFIRE BURN SCAR AND NEARBY
NORTHEASTERN AREAS TODAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF RAIN WITH MANY AREAS RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2025
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT
OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
WEAKEN ANOTHER DECAMETER OR TWO TODAY AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST. THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS SHIFTING TOWARD OKLAHOMA TONIGHT,
AND THE ONGOING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT, WILL HELP SEND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST NM TODAY.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT/OUTFLOW WILL BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST NM, BUT
GIVEN IT ALREADY HAS PUSHED THROUGH AT KCAO, IT MAY BE AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE. REGARDLESS, LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL PUSH UP TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON, HELPING TO SPARK ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND SPUR SOME STRONGER CONVECTION WITH HIGH RAINFALL
RATES AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AS WELL.
THOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM TODAY, AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING
GIVEN 1) HIGHER PWATS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY (1-1.3"); 2) SLOW STORM
MOTIONS; AND 3) WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS -- ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THE FLOOD WATCH WAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND THE RATON RIDGE
AREA.
THE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST NM WILL HELP PUSH THE BOUNDARY
SOUTH AND WEST THIS EVENING, THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A STRONG GAP WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH BELOW CANYONS IN ABQ. PENDING HOW
STRONG THE CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS,
THE EAST WIND COULD BE A BIT STRONGER. AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
WESTWARD, IT MAY HELP SPARK SOME BRIEF ENHANCEMENT IN ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NONETHELESS,
SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NM OVERNIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS WILL ALSO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM OVERNIGHT AND A
FEW AREAS OF FOG ARE NOT OF THE QUESTION.
ON TUESDAY, THE LOW CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD
STABILIZE MUCH OF EASTERN NM SUCH THAT LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MUCH MORE INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN NM, AND THAT IS WHERE THE MAJORITY
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE CENTRAL THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA IS WHERE MOST QUESTION MARKS LIE. IF THE COOLER,
MORE STABLE AIR CAN MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NOT MIX
OUT DURING THE DAY, LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, BUT IF
CAN MIX OUT, THEN MORE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY -- TO INCLUDE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MOST CAMS SHOW THE LATTER OCCURRING, BUT
THIS FORECASTER HAS CONCERNS THAT THE CAMS MAY BE A LITTLE OVER
ZEALOUS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2025
PENDING HOW THE AFTERNOON GOES IN THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA, SOME STORMS COULD SHIFT OVER EASTERN NM IN THE
EVENING. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE.
THE MONSOON PLUME SHOULD BE SQUARELY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM
ON WEDNESDAY, BUT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN PERSIST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THRU THE DAY WEDNESDAY LIMITING INSTABILITY.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT
WILL OCCUR, WITH MOST AREAS PICKING UP LESS THAN ONE QUARTER
INCH. THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP IT COOLER, WITH MOST AREAS 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE LOW LEVEL EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL LOSE IT'S GRIP ON EASTERN NM THOUGH, SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER ON WEDNESDAY IN THIS AREA THAN THEY WERE ON TUESDAY.
WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS ON TRACK TO BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR AND
DISRUPT THE MONSOON PLUME ON THURSDAY. WEAK RIDGING ON FRIDAY
COMBINED WITH ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD INCREASE STORM
COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN NM ON FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE BEHIND THIS
FRONT SHOULD KEEP EASTERN NM ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
LITTLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2025
STILL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS
MORNING, BUT THEY ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. IT'S LIKELY THESE WILL
DISSIPATE BY 14Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NM AS
WELL, SWITCHING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. WHILE ALL
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL, SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS, THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST NM WILL INCREASE THIS
PROBABILITY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD TO THE OK AND TX BORDERS. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NM.
THIS CONVECTION WILL HELP SEND THE FRONT SOUTH AND WESTWARD,
PUSHING THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTS NEAR 35KT LIKELY. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS EASTERN NM
TONIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. MVFR TO
IFR CIGS MAY ALSO SQUEAK THROUGH GLORIETA PASS AND INTO KSAF.
SHOWERS WILL ALSO LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
NORTHERN NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
WILL BE ENHANCED BY A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. RICHER
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NORTHEAST NM. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT, BRINGING A STRONG EAST CANYON WIND
TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHIFT TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. WITH
THE MONSOON LARGELY BEING ABSENT ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS SEASON,
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY PROVIDE SOME OF THE BEST CHANCES YET
FOR WETTING RAINFALL. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO WESTERN NM STARTING
THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NM AND EASTERN NM WILL BE FAVORED
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN FACT,
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHWEST NM
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 89 65 83 64 / 40 70 60 70
DULCE........................... 84 51 77 49 / 70 70 70 70
CUBA............................ 82 54 78 54 / 60 70 60 70
GALLUP.......................... 84 55 81 53 / 70 60 70 60
EL MORRO........................ 80 54 79 54 / 70 50 70 70
GRANTS.......................... 84 57 82 55 / 70 70 70 70
QUEMADO......................... 82 57 81 56 / 70 40 70 70
MAGDALENA....................... 83 59 83 61 / 50 30 40 60
DATIL........................... 80 55 80 55 / 60 40 60 70
RESERVE......................... 87 55 86 55 / 50 30 60 60
GLENWOOD........................ 92 60 89 60 / 40 20 50 50
CHAMA........................... 76 49 71 48 / 70 70 70 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 79 57 76 58 / 70 60 70 70
PECOS........................... 79 54 74 54 / 60 70 60 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 76 52 72 53 / 70 70 70 70
RED RIVER....................... 66 45 63 44 / 70 70 70 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 71 41 67 41 / 70 70 70 60
TAOS............................ 79 53 75 52 / 70 70 70 60
MORA............................ 73 49 69 48 / 70 70 70 60
ESPANOLA........................ 86 58 82 59 / 60 70 60 60
SANTA FE........................ 81 58 76 59 / 60 70 60 70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 85 57 80 58 / 60 60 50 70
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 88 65 84 66 / 40 60 50 70
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 90 64 85 64 / 40 60 40 60
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 91 64 87 64 / 30 50 40 60
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 90 65 86 65 / 40 60 40 60
BELEN........................... 92 62 89 62 / 20 40 30 50
BERNALILLO...................... 90 64 86 64 / 40 60 50 60
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 91 62 88 61 / 30 50 30 60
CORRALES........................ 91 64 86 64 / 40 60 50 60
LOS LUNAS....................... 91 63 88 63 / 30 50 30 60
PLACITAS........................ 87 62 82 62 / 40 60 50 70
RIO RANCHO...................... 89 64 85 64 / 40 60 40 60
SOCORRO......................... 92 67 92 66 / 30 30 30 50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 82 56 77 56 / 50 60 50 70
TIJERAS......................... 84 59 80 59 / 50 60 50 70
EDGEWOOD........................ 84 54 79 54 / 50 60 40 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 86 54 80 53 / 50 50 40 60
CLINES CORNERS.................. 80 55 73 55 / 50 70 40 50
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 84 56 80 56 / 40 40 40 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 84 57 81 56 / 30 30 40 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 86 63 84 61 / 20 20 40 40
RUIDOSO......................... 79 57 75 55 / 20 10 50 40
CAPULIN......................... 72 52 68 52 / 70 70 60 60
RATON........................... 76 53 72 52 / 70 70 70 60
SPRINGER........................ 80 54 74 53 / 70 70 60 60
LAS VEGAS....................... 78 53 72 53 / 60 70 60 60
CLAYTON......................... 77 57 71 57 / 50 70 50 60
ROY............................. 79 55 72 56 / 50 70 50 60
CONCHAS......................... 89 59 80 60 / 40 70 30 60
SANTA ROSA...................... 88 59 80 59 / 40 70 30 50
TUCUMCARI....................... 88 57 79 59 / 20 60 20 50
CLOVIS.......................... 91 61 81 61 / 10 30 20 40
PORTALES........................ 92 61 82 61 / 10 20 20 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 92 62 84 62 / 10 30 20 40
ROSWELL......................... 96 67 90 66 / 5 10 10 30
PICACHO......................... 89 62 84 59 / 10 10 20 30
ELK............................. 85 57 81 56 / 10 10 20 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
NMZ213>215-227>229-231-232.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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