023  
FXUS65 KABQ 252101  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
301 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 253 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2025  
 
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN AND  
WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY, AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW  
MEXICO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY  
RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ON THE  
HERMITS PEAK-CALF CANYON WILDFIRE BURN SCAR AND NEARBY  
NORTHEASTERN AREAS TODAY.  
 
- A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH A GUSTY EASTERLY GAP WIND THROUGH THE  
RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS  
TOMORROW.  
 
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND  
AREAS OF RAIN WITH MANY AREAS RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2025  
 
THE H5 PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO  
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND STRETCHING OVER INTO  
TEXAS. SCATTERED MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING  
ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN, PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL, AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGHING IS DIGGING INTO OKLAHOMA, CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY  
WILL HELP PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO  
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT LOOKS TO INVIGORATE STORMS  
ROLLING OFF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS, PRODUCING HALF AN INCH  
TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL FOR NORTHEASTERN AREAS. A FLOOD  
WATCH IS EFFECT UNTIL SUNRISE TOMORROW FOR AREAS ALONG THE SANGRE DE  
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS. HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND THE  
WATCH TO INCLUDE QUAY COUNTY, WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT STRONGER  
STORMS PERSISTING FURTHER EAST BEFORE WEAKENING NEAR THE TEXAS  
BORDER OVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS BACKDOOR FRONT  
WILL BRING ALONG SOME GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN  
PLAINS AND INDUCE A GAP WIND FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE  
EASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO ARRIVE AT THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA AT  
AROUND MIDNIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS PERSISTING THROUGH THE  
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER AROUND AREAS  
NORTH OF I-40 THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOURS AND EVEN UNTIL SUNRISE  
FOR FAR NORTHERN NM.  
 
THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS FRONT IS THE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS  
OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STATE. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE  
AREAS FOR SOME DENSER FOG TO DEVELOP AND DECREASE VISIBILITIES IS  
OVER UNION COUNTY, INCLUDING CLAYTON. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER LOOKS  
TO STRETCH FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD TOWARDS  
TEXAS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANY VISIBILITY IMPACTS ALONG  
THIS CORRIDOR SOUTH OF UNION COUNTY. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT  
DENSER CLOUD COVER COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN CHAVES  
COUNTY AND LAST INTO THE EARLY AND MIDDLE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS  
NORTH OF I-40. AS A RESULT, BUMPED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES DOWN,  
LEADING TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THIS TIME  
OF YEAR. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOST LIKELY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE,  
MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS ALONG  
AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. WITH PWATS IN THE 1  
TO 1.25 INCH RANGE, AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG EASTERN  
NEW MEXICO FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO AFFECT MANY LOCATIONS THAT HAVE  
ALREADY SEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE OPTED  
TO NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEASTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY GIVEN  
THE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR  
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST AND HINDER STORM DEVELOPMENT.  
THE 12Z NAM LOOKS TO SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE SOLUTION, WITH  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN AND  
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN WHERE IT WILL BE CLEARER. MONSOON MOISTURE  
LOOKS MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO, WHERE LOCALLY  
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR MAY CREATE FAST RISES IN  
STREAMS AND ARROYOS. AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 WILL SEE INCREASED  
MOISTURE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH MAY LEAD TO  
ISOLATED AND SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SACRAMENTO  
MOUNTAINS AND UP TOWARDS THE SANDIA-MANZANO MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT  
ON TUESDAY, LOW CLOUDS MAY ONCE AGAIN STRETCH SOUTHWARD OVER  
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2025  
 
BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK, UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE HEIGHTS LOOK  
TO FLATLINE BETWEEN 592 AND 590 DM OVER NEW MEXICO, WITH THE HIGH  
PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THE MONSOON PLUME WILL FOCUS  
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON WEDNESDAY. MORNING  
CLOUD DEBRIS MAY ONCE AGAIN CREATE STABILITY OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS  
AND LIMIT CHANCES FOR STORMS. OVERALL, OPTED TO DECREASE COVERAGE  
AND CHANCES OF STORMS THROUGHOUT THE REGION, WITH PWATS HOVERING  
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL  
ROCKIES ON THURSDAY WILL BRING IN SOME DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND  
DECREASE STORM CHANCES WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HOWEVER,  
THIS SHORTWAVE COULD PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING TO INVIGORATE  
STORMS ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND INTO NORTHEASTERN  
AREAS. A BACKDOOR FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NEW  
MEXICO LATE ON THURSDAY, WHICH COULD KEEP STORMS GOING INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHER THAN THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS, CHANCES FOR  
STORMS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE STATE WILL BE ISOLATED ON  
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW  
TEMPERATURE FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  
 
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, BOUNDED TO A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT  
PLAINS AND A DEEPENING PACIFIC LOW OVER THE PNW. THE MONSOON PLUME  
WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO, LEADING TO  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY  
ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2025  
 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND  
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED STORMS WILL WILL  
AFFECT KGUP, KABQ, KSAF AND KAEG, WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. STORMS MAY PERSIST LATER INTO THE EVENING  
FOR KLVS AND KTCC, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING LOWERED  
VISIBILITIES. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GUSTY EASTERLY  
WIND FOR EASTERN SITES TONIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO REACH THE RIO  
GRANDE VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT AND PRODUCE A PERSISTENT GAP WIND FOR  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT KABQ. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE LOW  
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR NORTHEASTERN SITES INCLUDING KCAO, KLVS, AND  
KTCC THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR  
CIGS WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STATE, POSSIBLY EVEN  
LIFR FOR KLVS EARLY IN THE MORNING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR  
LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL  
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE MORNING.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2025  
 
AMPLE MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL  
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM EARLY IN THE WEEK. A MOIST  
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND INCREASE RAIN  
CHANCES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE SATE. WESTERN  
NEW MEXICO SEES AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY, WITH  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS.  
EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL REMAIN MOIST, BUT STORM CHANCES WILL  
BE CONTINGENT ON CLOUD COVER. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL LOWER  
DEWPOINTS OVER MUCH WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY. SHOWER COVERAGE  
INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.  
THE FOUR CORNERS LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST PART OF THE STATE HEADING  
INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
FARMINGTON...................... 64 85 64 82 / 70 80 70 50  
DULCE........................... 50 79 49 78 / 80 90 80 70  
CUBA............................ 54 80 54 75 / 80 80 70 70  
GALLUP.......................... 54 83 53 80 / 70 70 60 50  
EL MORRO........................ 55 80 54 76 / 70 70 70 70  
GRANTS.......................... 57 83 55 80 / 70 80 70 70  
QUEMADO......................... 56 82 55 78 / 60 50 60 70  
MAGDALENA....................... 60 83 61 79 / 40 40 50 70  
DATIL........................... 56 80 55 76 / 50 50 50 80  
RESERVE......................... 54 87 54 86 / 40 40 50 60  
GLENWOOD........................ 60 91 59 89 / 30 40 50 60  
CHAMA........................... 49 73 48 72 / 90 90 80 80  
LOS ALAMOS...................... 57 78 57 75 / 70 80 70 70  
PECOS........................... 54 74 54 75 / 80 70 70 60  
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 53 73 52 73 / 80 80 80 70  
RED RIVER....................... 46 63 44 64 / 90 90 80 70  
ANGEL FIRE...................... 41 67 41 70 / 80 80 70 60  
TAOS............................ 54 76 53 76 / 80 80 70 50  
MORA............................ 49 66 48 74 / 90 80 70 60  
ESPANOLA........................ 58 86 58 83 / 70 80 70 50  
SANTA FE........................ 58 78 58 76 / 70 70 70 50  
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 82 57 80 / 70 70 70 50  
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 86 66 83 / 70 60 60 60  
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 89 64 85 / 60 50 60 40  
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 64 92 64 87 / 60 50 60 40  
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 89 65 85 / 60 60 60 40  
BELEN........................... 62 92 62 88 / 50 40 50 40  
BERNALILLO...................... 64 89 64 86 / 70 60 60 50  
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 62 91 61 87 / 50 40 50 40  
CORRALES........................ 65 91 64 86 / 70 60 60 50  
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 91 63 87 / 50 40 50 40  
PLACITAS........................ 62 84 62 81 / 70 60 60 50  
RIO RANCHO...................... 64 89 64 85 / 70 60 60 50  
SOCORRO......................... 67 93 66 89 / 30 30 40 40  
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 57 78 56 78 / 70 60 60 60  
TIJERAS......................... 59 81 58 79 / 70 60 60 60  
EDGEWOOD........................ 55 80 54 80 / 70 50 50 50  
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 80 53 81 / 60 50 50 40  
CLINES CORNERS.................. 55 74 55 76 / 60 50 50 40  
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 57 81 56 80 / 40 50 40 50  
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 82 56 80 / 30 40 40 60  
CARRIZOZO....................... 64 85 61 83 / 20 40 30 50  
RUIDOSO......................... 58 75 56 75 / 10 50 30 60  
CAPULIN......................... 52 65 53 77 / 90 70 70 40  
RATON........................... 54 69 52 80 / 90 80 70 50  
SPRINGER........................ 55 71 54 83 / 90 70 70 30  
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 71 53 78 / 90 70 70 50  
CLAYTON......................... 57 68 58 84 / 80 60 60 10  
ROY............................. 56 70 56 81 / 90 60 70 20  
CONCHAS......................... 60 80 61 88 / 80 40 60 10  
SANTA ROSA...................... 59 80 60 83 / 70 40 60 20  
TUCUMCARI....................... 57 78 59 86 / 70 30 60 5  
CLOVIS.......................... 61 83 61 90 / 40 30 40 5  
PORTALES........................ 62 85 61 91 / 30 20 40 10  
FORT SUMNER..................... 62 86 63 88 / 40 20 40 10  
ROSWELL......................... 68 92 66 91 / 10 10 10 20  
PICACHO......................... 62 86 60 86 / 10 30 20 40  
ELK............................. 59 82 56 83 / 5 30 10 50  
 
 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ213>215-227>229-231-232-  
234.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...25  
LONG TERM....25  
AVIATION...25  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab NM Page
Main Text Page