730
FXUS65 KABQ 110829
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
229 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 108 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THIS WEEK WITH THE MAIN RISK OF FLASH FLOODING BELOW RECENT BURN
SCARS, AND IN PLACES THAT RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN SUCCESSION.
- THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- IN THE WAKE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES SATURDAY, SOME
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE THEIR
FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
- AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN STORMS SUNDAY, MONSOON MOISTURE AND STORM
COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER DOWNTICK IN STORMS WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL STEER A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NM TODAY AND TONIGHT,
THEN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND
NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SPOTTIER ACTIVITY AS FAR EAST AS A
SOCORRO-TO-RATON LINE. ON FRIDAY, A LINE OR BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO FORM OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE), THEN
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN FRIDAY EVENING, AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD OUT AS CELLS CROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AREAS TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY,
WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES CLIMBING FROM AROUND 30-40 KT TODAY
TO AROUND 30-50 KT ON FRIDAY. THE SQUALL LINE MODELS ARE GENERALLY
DEPICTING CROSSING FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH CENTRAL
AREAS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY WELL PRODUCE 50 KT WIND
GUSTS IN SOME LOCATIONS, WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL FROM SOME
CELLS. A FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH A LOW BUT
RELEVANT RISK OF TORNADOES. RAIN AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD MOSTLY VARY FROM 0.20-0.75" ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY OVER 2
INCHES AS PWATS CLIMB WELL OVER 1", OR AROUND 125-175% OF AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVER CENTRAL AREAS, MOST OF THE RAIN WILL
COME FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND
0.25-1", AGAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PROBABLY EXCEEDING 2
INCHES IN SPOTS. BURN SCARS AND LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE
STORMS IN SUCCESSION WILL BE AT GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD VARY FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW
1991-2020 AVERAGES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS TO AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES
ABOVE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. READINGS WILL FALL A FEW TO 7 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST DECREASE NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MAINLY
TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON SATURDAY,
THEN FAVOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT, AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THIS TIME
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE THE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
AGAIN OCCUR SATURDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SEEING RAIN RATES POTENTIALLY OVER 2 INCHES
PER HOUR. STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A GOOD 20-30 MPH, SO LOCATIONS
WHERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, AS
WELL AS THE RECENT BURN SCARS, AND LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE A SERIES
OF STORMS IN SUCCESSION.
AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT SATURDAY FROM NEAR TO AROUND 8
DEGREES BELOW 30-YEAR AVERAGES, READINGS WILL GENERALLY REBOUND
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER OVER THE AREA IN WEST AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY, WHEN ONLY A FEW SPOTTY STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH A DRYLINE ON THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. ON MONDAY,
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER TEXAS, AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, BEGIN TO
STEER A MODEST STREAM OF MONSOON MOISTURE OVER NORTHEASTWARD OUT
OF MEXICO. THIS ROUND OF MONSOON MOISTURE SHOULD PEAK ACROSS
SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL, AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS. DRIER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2025
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REDUCED AND DWINDLED TO
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF NEW MEXICO. LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY IS DECREASING, SIGNIFYING ACTIVITY IS WEAKER THAN A FEW
HOURS AGO, BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STRAY STORMS WILL PERIODICALLY
REDEVELOP INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL IMPACT EASTERN PLAINS AIRPORTS OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
JET (A BELT OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS JUST A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET
ABOVE THE SURFACE) DEVELOPS. THIS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL FADE
INTO THE LATE MORNING THURSDAY AS VERTICAL MIXING PROCESSES IN THE
ATMOSPHERE RESUME. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF NEW
MEXICO BEING FAVORED AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OBSERVED IN
THESE NORTHWESTERN AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS, HAIL, AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ACCOMPANYING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 108 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND FRIDAY. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN AREAS THURSDAY, THEN FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD
OVER CENTRAL AREAS FRIDAY, COULD REACH 50 KT. A SQUALL LINE
PASSING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL AREAS FRIDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE A
1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF STRONG WEST WINDS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE A WEST AND NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT OVER WESTERN THEN CENTRAL
AREAS SATURDAY, AND OVER EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
GOOD SHOT AT WETTING TO POTENTIALLY SOAKING PRECIP OVER THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK, THERE
WILL BE DRYING ON SUNDAY AS MIN HUMIDITIES DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT
IN SOME WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST LOCATIONS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
WILL CLIMB ABOVE 15 PERCENT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SURGE
OF MODERATE MONSOON MOISTURE CROSSES WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WETTING PRECIP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AREAS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE WILL BE NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT WITH
ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN DRIER AIR WITH
FEWER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 84 59 77 54 / 80 60 80 50
DULCE........................... 78 48 71 45 / 80 70 80 80
CUBA............................ 82 53 77 49 / 50 60 80 80
GALLUP.......................... 81 52 76 47 / 60 50 70 40
EL MORRO........................ 78 53 74 48 / 70 60 80 60
GRANTS.......................... 82 53 77 49 / 60 50 90 70
QUEMADO......................... 82 53 78 50 / 40 40 70 50
MAGDALENA....................... 82 58 80 55 / 10 20 60 70
DATIL........................... 80 52 76 50 / 30 20 70 70
RESERVE......................... 86 52 83 50 / 20 30 50 50
GLENWOOD........................ 90 57 87 54 / 30 30 50 40
CHAMA........................... 73 47 68 45 / 70 70 80 80
LOS ALAMOS...................... 79 57 76 54 / 30 30 60 80
PECOS........................... 81 52 79 51 / 20 20 40 70
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 78 51 76 49 / 30 30 50 70
RED RIVER....................... 70 41 68 42 / 30 30 50 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 73 37 71 42 / 30 20 40 60
TAOS............................ 81 52 78 50 / 30 30 40 60
MORA............................ 77 48 74 48 / 30 20 40 60
ESPANOLA........................ 87 55 83 53 / 20 20 50 70
SANTA FE........................ 82 57 79 54 / 20 20 50 70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 86 55 83 53 / 20 20 40 70
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 88 63 85 59 / 20 20 50 80
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 89 64 86 60 / 20 20 50 70
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 91 58 88 55 / 10 20 50 70
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 90 63 87 59 / 20 20 50 80
BELEN........................... 91 61 89 59 / 10 20 40 70
BERNALILLO...................... 90 61 87 57 / 20 20 50 80
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 90 58 87 55 / 10 20 50 70
CORRALES........................ 91 61 88 58 / 20 20 50 80
LOS LUNAS....................... 90 60 88 57 / 10 20 40 70
PLACITAS........................ 86 59 84 56 / 20 20 50 70
RIO RANCHO...................... 89 63 86 59 / 20 20 50 80
SOCORRO......................... 92 63 89 61 / 10 20 40 60
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 82 57 79 54 / 20 20 50 70
TIJERAS......................... 84 59 81 55 / 20 20 50 70
EDGEWOOD........................ 83 54 81 54 / 20 20 40 70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 85 50 82 51 / 20 20 40 70
CLINES CORNERS.................. 80 53 78 52 / 20 20 30 60
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 84 55 82 54 / 10 20 40 70
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 83 54 81 54 / 10 10 30 60
CARRIZOZO....................... 86 59 84 59 / 10 5 20 50
RUIDOSO......................... 79 51 77 52 / 20 10 30 40
CAPULIN......................... 80 51 78 51 / 10 10 10 40
RATON........................... 83 51 80 51 / 20 10 20 40
SPRINGER........................ 86 53 83 53 / 20 10 20 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 80 52 78 51 / 20 20 30 60
CLAYTON......................... 89 60 86 60 / 0 0 0 20
ROY............................. 84 57 82 56 / 5 0 10 40
CONCHAS......................... 91 61 88 62 / 0 0 5 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 87 59 85 60 / 0 0 10 50
TUCUMCARI....................... 90 59 87 60 / 0 0 0 30
CLOVIS.......................... 91 60 89 63 / 0 0 0 20
PORTALES........................ 92 60 89 63 / 0 0 0 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 91 60 88 62 / 0 0 0 30
ROSWELL......................... 93 62 91 64 / 0 0 0 20
PICACHO......................... 88 57 86 59 / 5 0 10 30
ELK............................. 83 54 81 56 / 5 0 20 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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