954
FXUS65 KABQ 121857
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1257 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2025
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MOST COMMON THREAT.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM TODAY, AND AGAIN SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN
NM. FLASH FLOODING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS AND RECENT BURN SCARS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2025
A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGHING PATTERN IS PARKED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
WITH SPOKES OF VORTICITY PROGRESSING THRU THE TROUGH INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE, A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED
NORTH INTO EASTERN AZ AND WESTERN NM BRINGING PWATS UP TO 0.80" TO
1.00" OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KTS IS GREATEST
CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHWARD TO THE GILA NF AND ITS HERE
WHERE THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THREATEN SEVERE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK ALSO EXISTS FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NM TODAY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA REPEATEDLY.
REASONABLE HIGH-END 6-HR RAIN TOTALS CAN BE UP TO 0.75" TO 1.00",
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1.50" POSSIBLE FOR EVENT
TOTALS. AS SUCH, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN, NORTH-CENTRAL, AND CENTRAL NM.
LOW-LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS, METRO ARROYO SYSTEMS IN SANTA FE
AND ALBUQUERQUE, AND RECENT BURN SCARS ARE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLOODING. THE OVERALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL NM AND ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THRU
TONIGHT, SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THRU THE DAY SATURDAY.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS WAS
EXTENDED TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. SIMILAR RAINFALL
RATES AND TOTALS ARE FORECAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN SATURDAY. HOWEVER, FAST MOVING STORMS AND DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS AND ABILITY TO HANDLE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS AT THIS TIME
PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR AN EXPANSION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THERE.
MEANWHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS WESTERN NM
TODAY, AND ALL OF NM SATURDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS CLEAR WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM SATURDAY, REACHING EASTERN NM SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2025
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY, SPREADING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS PERSISTS MONDAY UNTIL THE NEXT PUSH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BEFORE DRIFTING OVER SURROUNDING LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO STEADILY BUILD OVER THE REGION AND NORTHERN MEXICO
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FAVORING THE SAME AREAS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN EACH DAY IS
FAVORED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ENTERED FAR WESTERN NM FROM AZ THIS PAST HOUR. ISOLATED MVFR
CONDITIONS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS 40KTS ARE GREATER ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY TREK NNE. THIS LINE
OF ACTIVITY STEADILY SHIFTS EAST REACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
KSAF TO KABQ NEAR 22Z, THEN CONTINUING INTO THE HIGHLANDS ADJACENT
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN PAST 00Z. NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES
OVER CENTRAL NM THRU TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, CLEARING OVER FAR
WESTERN NM. GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTS OVER EASTERN NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1238 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH A LARGE INFLUX OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ARRIVING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORECAST EACH DAY. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURN TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE HOLDING ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 55 74 47 76 / 50 50 10 0
DULCE........................... 47 68 39 73 / 90 70 10 0
CUBA............................ 51 68 44 73 / 90 70 20 0
GALLUP.......................... 50 72 39 76 / 50 30 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 50 71 41 75 / 70 50 5 0
GRANTS.......................... 52 73 41 78 / 80 60 10 0
QUEMADO......................... 50 73 44 77 / 70 50 5 0
MAGDALENA....................... 55 73 49 76 / 90 80 20 0
DATIL........................... 51 71 44 75 / 80 70 10 0
RESERVE......................... 53 77 44 83 / 60 40 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 57 79 51 86 / 70 50 5 0
CHAMA........................... 45 62 38 69 / 90 80 20 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 54 67 50 71 / 90 80 30 0
PECOS........................... 53 68 45 73 / 80 70 40 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 49 66 42 71 / 80 60 20 0
RED RIVER....................... 43 59 36 63 / 70 60 20 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 63 30 68 / 70 70 20 0
TAOS............................ 50 69 42 74 / 80 60 20 0
MORA............................ 49 68 42 71 / 80 80 30 0
ESPANOLA........................ 56 73 46 78 / 90 70 30 0
SANTA FE........................ 55 68 48 73 / 90 70 30 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 55 71 46 75 / 90 70 30 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 60 74 54 78 / 90 80 30 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 60 76 55 80 / 90 70 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 60 78 49 82 / 80 70 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 61 76 54 80 / 90 70 20 0
BELEN........................... 60 78 54 82 / 80 80 20 0
BERNALILLO...................... 60 77 52 81 / 90 80 30 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 59 78 51 81 / 80 70 20 0
CORRALES........................ 60 77 52 82 / 90 80 20 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 60 78 53 81 / 80 70 20 0
PLACITAS........................ 58 74 51 76 / 90 80 30 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 60 76 53 81 / 90 80 20 0
SOCORRO......................... 61 79 56 85 / 80 80 30 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 54 70 48 73 / 90 80 30 0
TIJERAS......................... 56 71 50 74 / 90 80 30 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 54 72 48 76 / 90 80 30 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 55 73 46 77 / 90 80 30 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 69 47 73 / 80 80 40 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 55 72 49 76 / 90 80 30 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 56 72 50 75 / 80 80 40 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 60 76 56 79 / 70 80 50 5
RUIDOSO......................... 55 70 50 73 / 60 80 50 10
CAPULIN......................... 53 69 46 73 / 50 60 40 0
RATON........................... 53 72 46 76 / 50 60 20 0
SPRINGER........................ 56 74 47 78 / 50 60 30 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 69 47 75 / 70 70 40 0
CLAYTON......................... 61 75 55 81 / 20 60 40 0
ROY............................. 57 71 51 78 / 50 70 50 0
CONCHAS......................... 63 77 57 84 / 50 70 60 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 60 75 55 81 / 60 80 50 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 63 77 57 82 / 30 70 60 0
CLOVIS.......................... 63 80 59 86 / 10 70 70 5
PORTALES........................ 64 81 60 86 / 10 70 70 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 64 79 58 85 / 40 80 60 0
ROSWELL......................... 67 83 62 88 / 20 70 60 5
PICACHO......................... 61 78 57 84 / 30 80 50 5
ELK............................. 58 77 54 82 / 30 80 50 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NMZ201-203-204-206-
207-210>219-221.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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