837
FXUS65 KABQ 131805
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1205 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1008 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SEVERE GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MOST
COMMON THREATS.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY,
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. FLASH FLOODING IN
FLOOD PRONE AREAS AND RECENT BURN SCARS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- THERE WILL BE A NOTABLE DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE GOING INTO MID WEEK AND ANOTHER
UPTICK GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN UT, WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ROTATING UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CIRCULATION ACROSS AZ AND INTO WESTERN NM. THE
ATMOSPHERE IN ADVANCE OF THESE DRYING WESTERLIES IS ANOMALOUSLY
MOIST, WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 140-180% OF NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NM PER THE BLENDED PERCENT OF NORMAL TPW SATELLITE
PRODUCT. STRONGER WESTERLIES SPREADING INTO NM IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS CREATING A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY, WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 40-60KTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE SPC UPGRADED MUCH OF
OUR MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO A SLIGHT RISK TODAY, WHICH
INCLUDES MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. FAST STORM MOTION WILL
LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH THE MAIN
THREAT CONTINUING OVER THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS WHERE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND GROUNDS ARE ALREADY
SATURATED. THE OVERALL SETUP FOR TODAY/TONIGHT IS A FAIRLY
TYPICAL END OF MONSOON SETUP WHEN WE STILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH
PWATS AND THE JET STREAM DIPS FURTHER SOUTH AND INTRODUCES
STRONGER/DRIER WESTERLIES TO THE REGION. THE COINCIDENCE OF THESE
TWO MAIN INGREDIENTS IS WHAT BRINGS US A CONVECTIVE UPTICK WITH
POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS.
AFTER SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT, THE INGREDIENTS FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG
WILL BE IN PLACE. THAT IS, A MOIST LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER, WET
SURFACES AND A MUCH DRIER MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER, THE
TIMING OF THE CLEARING IS OF LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE, MAKING THE
LOW STRATUS/FOG FORECAST CHALLENGING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
WILL EJECT EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY, WITH
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS NM AND WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER, WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE AND A VOID OF DAYTIME
HEATING TRIGGERED CONVECTION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FOG/LOW
STRATUS EVENT GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER
PATTERN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY CARVES OUT OVER THE ROCKIES AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES OVER THE DESERT SW AND UP INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO
CREEP NORTH BACK INTO THE STATE AND RESULT IN AN UPTREND IN DAILY
ROUNDS OF STORMS TUE/WED, BRINGING BACK AT LEAST A MINOR THREAT
FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR A BACKDOOR FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS, AIDED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW, BUT THE TIMING FROM THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DISPARATE. A PACIFIC TROUGH IS MODELED TO MOVE
TOWARD NM FRIDAY AND ACROSS ON SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT AND RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN STORM
COVERAGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
CHALLENGING TAFS WITH CATEGORICAL CONSIDERATIONS, BOTH FROM
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND POTENTIAL LOW STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN STORMS TODAY, WITH
SHORT-LIVED IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE KABQ/KAEG/KSAF AIRSPACE
WILL BE IMPACTED BY STORMS BETWEEN 19-23Z, WITH STRONG/ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL LIKELY. THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS ARE LIKELY AT
KROW AND KTCC LATER TODAY AS WELL. TIMING OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT IS
MAKING FOR A CHALLENGING LOW STRATUS/FOG FORECAST, WITH KTCC
BEING THE TERMINAL MOST LIKELY FOR IMPACTS FOLLOWED BY KROW AND
KLVS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AREAWIDE BETWEEN 15-17Z SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1008 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS A MOIST MONSOON PATTERN PERSISTS. THERE
WILL BE A NOTABLE DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS SUN/MON
AS DRY WESTERLIES OVERTAKE THE REGION, BUT HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL
STILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST AREAS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND
MOIST SOILS. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS MID
WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND ACROSS
NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NM. CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS WILL TREND
UP FURTHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS TROPICAL MOISTURE WRAPS
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION AND A BACKDOOR FRONT GETS INTO
THE MIX.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 49 77 49 81 / 10 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 36 74 37 79 / 20 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 43 73 44 77 / 10 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 40 77 42 80 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 42 74 46 77 / 0 0 0 5
GRANTS.......................... 42 77 44 81 / 5 0 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 43 76 45 80 / 0 0 0 5
MAGDALENA....................... 50 76 52 79 / 20 0 0 10
DATIL........................... 43 74 46 77 / 10 0 0 10
RESERVE......................... 43 83 46 85 / 0 0 0 10
GLENWOOD........................ 49 85 52 88 / 10 0 0 10
CHAMA........................... 37 69 39 73 / 20 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 48 72 50 74 / 20 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 45 72 45 75 / 30 5 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 42 71 44 75 / 10 5 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 35 62 36 66 / 10 5 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 31 67 30 71 / 20 5 0 5
TAOS............................ 41 74 41 78 / 20 5 0 0
MORA............................ 41 71 42 74 / 20 5 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 48 79 47 82 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 49 72 49 76 / 20 5 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 47 75 47 79 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 56 78 57 82 / 20 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 54 80 55 84 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 53 82 53 86 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 54 81 54 84 / 20 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 50 82 50 85 / 20 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 53 82 53 85 / 20 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 50 81 50 85 / 20 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 53 82 54 85 / 20 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 51 81 52 85 / 20 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 53 77 53 80 / 20 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 53 81 54 85 / 20 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 54 85 55 88 / 30 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 48 73 49 77 / 20 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 50 74 50 78 / 20 0 0 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 46 75 45 80 / 20 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 44 77 43 81 / 30 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 48 72 48 76 / 30 5 0 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 47 75 47 79 / 30 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 48 74 48 78 / 40 5 0 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 55 79 54 82 / 50 5 5 10
RUIDOSO......................... 50 73 50 75 / 60 10 5 20
CAPULIN......................... 43 72 46 76 / 30 5 0 5
RATON........................... 43 75 44 79 / 20 5 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 44 78 45 81 / 30 5 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 45 74 45 77 / 30 5 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 53 79 53 82 / 30 5 0 0
ROY............................. 48 77 49 79 / 40 5 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 55 82 54 85 / 50 5 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 52 80 51 81 / 50 5 5 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 54 81 53 83 / 70 5 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 59 85 59 86 / 80 10 5 10
PORTALES........................ 59 85 57 85 / 80 10 5 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 57 84 55 85 / 60 5 5 10
ROSWELL......................... 61 87 60 88 / 70 5 5 20
PICACHO......................... 54 83 54 84 / 60 10 5 20
ELK............................. 52 81 51 82 / 50 10 5 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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