345
FXUS65 KABQ 142311
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
511 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 509 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
- AFTER MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TODAY AND MONDAY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN OVER SOUTHERN, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN CONTINUE EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- THERE IS A MINOR RISK OF BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING ON TUESDAY AND
A MINOR TO MODERATE RISK ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS CURRENTLY EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WITH DRY WESTERLIES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
OVERTAKING NM. THE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR AREA
WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW LATE
DAY BUILD-UPS THAT WILL PRODUCE VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. WINDS IN THE LOWEST PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
TURN TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS, TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE NORTH. A DRY ATMOSPHERE ABOVE
THE MOIST NEAR-SURFACE LAYER WILL PROVIDE A NICE LOW STRATUS/FOG
SETUP ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN MOIST SOILS FROM RECENT SOAKING RAINS. LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR LOW STRATUS VS FOG THERE, BUT AREAS OF
FOG CAN NOT BE RULED-OUT AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH INTO OUR
AREA MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW MOVING SLOWLY
FROM THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE
ADDED MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED DAYTIME HEATING
TRIGGERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. OTHERWISE, MONDAY WILL BE WARMER, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE. ANOTHER
LOW/STATUS FOG SETUP IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT, EXPANDING A BIT
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE HIGHLANDS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM TUESDAY
AS WESTERLIES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW
BEGIN TO IMPACT NORTHERN NM. TUESDAY IS TRENDING MORE ACTIVE IN
GENERAL, WITH A MINOR RISK FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING AND A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM, WHERE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR 35KTS. THE SIGNAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST NM, WHERE THE
LATEST NAM IS ADVERTISING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40KTS AND SBCAPE OF
UP TO 2000J/KG. IN ADDITION, A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO FAR NORTHEAST NM LATE WEDNESDAY AND AIDE WITH FORCING.
AT LEAST A MINOR RISK FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW IS FORECAST
TO EJECT EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRAILS ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE LOOKING LIKE RELATIVE DOWN DAYS
IN TERMS OF STORM COVERAGE. AN UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN MX IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND WEST INTO THE DESERT SW OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WARMING/DRYING TREND. HOWEVER, SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING MORE
ACTIVE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AROUND THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SCENARIO FOR THE 00Z TAF UPDATE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE. THE LONE
EXCEPTION IS KROW WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT IFR
CEILINGS IN THE MORNING.
39
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS A MONSOON PATTERN PERSISTS. THERE WILL BE
A NOTABLE DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY AS DRY WESTERLIES OVERTAKE THE REGION, BUT HUMIDITY
RECOVERY WILL STILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST AREAS DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL AND MOIST SOILS. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF WETTING
STORMS MID WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND
ACROSS NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NM. CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS WILL
TREND BACK UP SATURDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. DRYING AND WARMING IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 50 82 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 36 78 39 80 / 0 0 0 10
CUBA............................ 44 77 48 78 / 0 0 0 10
GALLUP.......................... 42 80 45 81 / 0 0 0 5
EL MORRO........................ 46 77 48 78 / 0 0 0 10
GRANTS.......................... 45 81 47 82 / 0 5 0 20
QUEMADO......................... 45 79 50 80 / 0 0 5 20
MAGDALENA....................... 52 78 55 78 / 0 5 10 30
DATIL........................... 46 77 50 77 / 0 5 10 30
RESERVE......................... 46 85 50 86 / 0 5 10 30
GLENWOOD........................ 51 88 55 88 / 0 5 10 30
CHAMA........................... 39 73 41 74 / 0 0 0 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 50 75 52 75 / 0 5 5 20
PECOS........................... 47 75 48 76 / 0 5 5 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 44 75 47 75 / 0 0 0 10
RED RIVER....................... 37 66 39 67 / 0 0 0 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 30 70 32 70 / 0 0 0 20
TAOS............................ 40 77 44 78 / 0 0 0 10
MORA............................ 42 74 44 74 / 0 5 5 30
ESPANOLA........................ 46 82 49 82 / 0 0 5 10
SANTA FE........................ 51 76 52 77 / 0 0 5 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 47 79 50 80 / 0 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 59 82 60 83 / 0 0 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 54 84 57 85 / 0 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 53 86 56 87 / 0 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 55 84 57 85 / 0 0 5 10
BELEN........................... 51 85 53 86 / 0 0 5 10
BERNALILLO...................... 52 85 55 86 / 0 0 5 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 50 85 53 86 / 0 0 5 10
CORRALES........................ 54 86 56 87 / 0 0 5 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 52 85 55 86 / 0 0 5 10
PLACITAS........................ 54 80 56 81 / 0 0 5 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 54 85 56 85 / 0 0 5 10
SOCORRO......................... 55 88 58 88 / 0 5 5 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 50 77 52 77 / 0 0 5 20
TIJERAS......................... 52 78 53 79 / 0 0 5 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 45 80 47 80 / 0 0 5 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 42 81 45 81 / 0 5 5 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 48 75 50 75 / 0 5 5 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 48 79 50 79 / 0 5 5 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 49 78 50 78 / 0 5 5 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 55 81 56 80 / 0 10 10 30
RUIDOSO......................... 50 75 51 73 / 0 20 10 40
CAPULIN......................... 45 77 49 77 / 0 0 0 30
RATON........................... 44 79 45 79 / 0 0 0 30
SPRINGER........................ 44 81 46 81 / 0 0 0 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 44 76 47 75 / 0 5 5 30
CLAYTON......................... 52 83 57 83 / 0 0 0 20
ROY............................. 47 80 52 80 / 0 0 5 30
CONCHAS......................... 51 85 57 85 / 0 0 5 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 48 82 54 81 / 5 5 10 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 52 83 57 83 / 5 0 5 10
CLOVIS.......................... 59 85 60 85 / 5 10 10 10
PORTALES........................ 59 86 61 85 / 5 10 10 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 55 85 59 85 / 5 5 10 10
ROSWELL......................... 60 87 61 86 / 5 20 20 10
PICACHO......................... 54 83 55 83 / 5 20 20 20
ELK............................. 51 81 52 80 / 5 20 10 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...39
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