991
FXUS65 KABQ 151822
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1222 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1108 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
- AFTER MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AGAIN TODAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN OVER SOUTHERN, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN CONTINUE EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- THERE WILL BE A MINOR RISK OF BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING ON
TUESDAY AND A MINOR TO MODERATE RISK ON WEDNESDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
ANOTHER QUIET DAY PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM AS DRY
WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE STATE. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS CREEPING NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NM AND THAT TREND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING PWATS BACK ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST AREAS. AS A RESULT, WE'RE EXPECTING A NOTABLE UPTICK IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING EXCEPT FOR ACROSS
NORTHWEST NM WHERE A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL PERSIST.
STORM MOTION WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN NM TUESDAY AS
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT TREND UP IN ADVANCE OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW, CURRENTLY MOVING EAST FROM OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. STORM MOTION ACROSS SOUTHERN NM WILL BE LIGHT TUESDAY,
BRINING AT LEAST A MINOR RISK FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING TO THE
RUIDOSO AREA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM TUESDAY/AFTERNOON, WITH
LOW PROBABILITIES FOR PULSE-SEVERE TYPE STORMS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
WEDNESDAY IS STILL LOOKING ACTIVE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
WHERE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 50KTS AND SBCAPE VALUES WILL
APPROACH 2000J/KG. THE 12Z NAM ISN'T AS BULLISH AS PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND HOLDS IT
UP IN CO THROUGH 03Z THURSDAY, WHEREAS THE 12Z GFS BRINGS IT INTO
FAR NORTHEAST NM BETWEEN 21-00Z. THIS BOUNDARY IS A KEY INGREDIENT
FOR FORCING CONVECTION LATE WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SET
THE STAGE FOR THURSDAY, WHICH IS TRENDING INCREASINGLY ACTIVE.
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HIGHEST THREAT DAY FOR BURN SCAR FLASH
FLOODING IN THE RUIDOSO AREA WITH AN ABOVE NORMAL PWAT ATMOSPHERE
PERSISTING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM.
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING LITTLE
AGREEMENT AND CHANGING FROM RUN-TO-RUN. FOR NOW, WE'LL TREND POPS
DOWN AND HIGH TEMPERATURES UP WITH THE IDEA OF A BUILDING RIDGE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, IF THE 12Z
GFS WORKS OUT, THEN THE WEEKEND MAY BE MORE UNSETTLED WITH HIGHER
PWATS AND A PACIFIC LOW ON APPROACH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. THERE ARE VERY LOW PROBABILITIES
FOR MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STATUS/FOG ACROSS EASTERN NM
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF KROW THIS
EVENING AND CREATE GUSTY WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS A MONSOON PATTERN PERSISTS. TODAY IS
ANOTHER DOWN DAY WITH REGARD TO WETTING STORMS AS DRY WESTERLIES
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL STILL BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY FOR MOST AREAS DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL AND INCREASING MOISTURE. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF
WETTING STORMS BEGINNING TUESDAY, EXCEPT FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
NORTHWEST. DRYING AND WARMING IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE DESERT SW
AND NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 53 84 52 81 / 0 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 41 79 40 78 / 5 10 10 5
CUBA............................ 49 78 47 78 / 0 20 20 10
GALLUP.......................... 47 81 47 81 / 0 5 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 50 78 49 78 / 0 30 20 10
GRANTS.......................... 49 81 48 81 / 0 30 20 10
QUEMADO......................... 51 78 50 79 / 10 40 30 20
MAGDALENA....................... 57 77 55 77 / 10 50 30 40
DATIL........................... 51 76 50 76 / 20 60 40 40
RESERVE......................... 51 85 51 84 / 10 60 40 30
GLENWOOD........................ 56 87 55 87 / 10 60 30 30
CHAMA........................... 43 73 41 72 / 0 20 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 54 76 52 75 / 0 30 30 30
PECOS........................... 49 77 49 76 / 0 30 30 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 48 75 47 74 / 0 20 30 30
RED RIVER....................... 40 67 39 65 / 0 20 30 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 34 70 35 69 / 0 20 20 50
TAOS............................ 44 78 45 77 / 0 20 20 20
MORA............................ 45 73 44 72 / 0 30 30 50
ESPANOLA........................ 50 82 51 81 / 0 20 30 20
SANTA FE........................ 54 77 53 76 / 0 20 30 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 50 80 50 80 / 0 20 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 61 84 60 83 / 5 30 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 58 85 58 84 / 0 30 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 57 87 57 87 / 0 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 59 85 58 85 / 0 20 20 20
BELEN........................... 54 87 55 86 / 5 30 20 20
BERNALILLO...................... 56 87 57 86 / 0 20 20 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 54 86 55 85 / 0 30 20 20
CORRALES........................ 57 87 58 87 / 0 20 20 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 56 86 56 85 / 0 30 20 20
PLACITAS........................ 57 82 56 81 / 5 20 30 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 57 86 58 85 / 0 20 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 59 87 59 87 / 5 40 20 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 53 78 52 77 / 0 30 30 20
TIJERAS......................... 54 80 53 79 / 5 30 30 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 49 80 49 79 / 0 30 30 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 46 80 48 81 / 0 30 30 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 51 75 50 74 / 0 30 30 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 51 79 51 78 / 5 40 30 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 51 78 52 77 / 5 40 30 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 57 81 57 79 / 10 40 20 50
RUIDOSO......................... 52 73 52 71 / 20 50 20 60
CAPULIN......................... 49 77 46 71 / 0 20 30 60
RATON........................... 46 80 46 75 / 0 20 20 60
SPRINGER........................ 46 81 48 76 / 0 20 20 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 49 75 47 74 / 0 40 30 50
CLAYTON......................... 57 83 55 78 / 0 20 20 30
ROY............................. 53 80 51 77 / 0 20 20 40
CONCHAS......................... 58 85 58 84 / 0 20 20 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 54 81 55 81 / 0 30 20 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 57 82 57 81 / 0 10 20 30
CLOVIS.......................... 61 85 60 84 / 10 5 10 30
PORTALES........................ 61 85 60 85 / 10 5 5 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 59 85 60 84 / 0 20 10 30
ROSWELL......................... 62 87 62 86 / 20 5 5 20
PICACHO......................... 54 83 55 81 / 10 30 10 50
ELK............................. 52 80 53 79 / 20 40 10 50
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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