946
FXUS65 KABQ 022320 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
520 PM MDT THU OCT 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 520 PM MDT THU OCT 2 2025
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
- BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY INCREASE MORE SATURDAY,
CREATING HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES.
- THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT WETTER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
NEXT WEEK TUESDAY ONWARD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2025
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER NM AND TX
TODAY WHILE A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. ABOVE
AVERAGE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH-
BASED, FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND LIGHT BREEZES PREVAILING.
INTO FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND, A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH A 100 KT JET ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THIS FEATURE AT 300 MB. THIS WILL INCREASE THE WINDS ALOFT
OVER NM WITH THE MEAN 500-700 MB LAYER WINDS INCREASING TO 10-25
KT. THE HIGHEST SPEEDS WOULD OVERLAY NORTHWESTERN NM, AND A LEE-
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO START TO RENDER ALONG THE CO FRONT
RANGE. THIS WILL INVOKE BREEZY CONDITIONS IN NM, PARTICULARLY IN
THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MINIMAL QPF IS BEING DEPICTED BY MOST DETERMINISTIC
MODELS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THESE CAN HISTORICALLY
UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION IN THE
DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGHS. THIS SEEMS
ESPECIALLY PLAUSIBLE, GIVEN THE ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WITHIN REACH (OVER THE GULF OF CA AND OVER SONORA). THEREFORE,
HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW 10-20% POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE WOULD BE FLEETING, QUICK-MOVING
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WOULD LIKELY NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SOAKING RAINFALL.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2025
BY SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL START TO FILL IN WITH THE TROUGH
TURNING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT ENCROACHES THE ROCKIES. THIS
WILL SEND A VERY FAST-MOVING SWATH OF PVA OVER NORTHWESTERN TO
NORTH CENTRAL NM SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL BE WHERE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE
FAVORED, BUT PRECEDING ENERGY THAT IS STILL JUXTAPOSED WITH WAA
BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES COULD EXTEND SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE
FARTHER SOUTH, SO POPS WERE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD TO CAPTURE THIS
SATURDAY. THE OTHER IMPACT WILL COME FROM WIND WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OR
WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SURFACE GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH WILL BE COMMON SATURDAY WITH
THE NORTHEAST CORNER PUSHING CLOSER TO 35-50 MPH, AN ABRUPT
REMINDER THAT THE MONSOON IS WANING AND OUR SEASONAL TRANSITION
IS UNDERWAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE OBSERVED SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
ANY FREEZE WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED, BUT THE UPPER RIO GRANDE (TAOS)
ZONE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
FOR SUNDAY, THE REMNANTS OF SATURDAY'S LOW WILL HAVE EJECTED
TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH A NEW LONGER WAVE TROUGH FEATURE
STARTING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. LIGHT TO
MODERATE BREEZES WOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BOUNCING
BACK TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE.
A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR IN
NORTHEASTERN NM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND THE FATE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL BE DICTATED BY HOW FAST THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
SLIDES EASTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN PRAIRIE
TROUGH. THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY
DICTATE THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK'S WEATHER. TEAM GFS IS LESS
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH COMPARED TO
TEAM ECMWF WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS BETWEEN THE GEFS AND EPS BEING A
BIT MORE SIMILAR. A SLOWER SOLUTION LIKE THE GFS WOULD INVITE THE
BACKDOOR FRONT INTO NM WITH MORE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLIES JUXTAPOSED ABOVE, WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
MOST SOLUTIONS ALL INDICATE ANOTHER LATE WEEK PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH/LOW TAKING SHAPE TOO WHILE TROPICAL DISTURBANCES OR
CYCLONES COULD ALSO FLIRTING WITH THE BAJA PENINSULA WHICH WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE TABLE VIA MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSES ALSO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT THU OCT 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AREAWIDE LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NM FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS IMPACTING KFMN AND KGUP IN THE
LAST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT THU OCT 2 2025
QUIET AND WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL START TO EVOLVE AND TURN
MORE UNSETTLED INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE WESTERN US AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE NATION. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL UNFOLD FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH IMPACTING NORTHEASTERN NM. A FEW
QUICK-MOVING SHOWERS AND FAIRLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE NM-AZ BORDER LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WETTING
RAINFALL (OF AT LEAST 0.10") POTENTIAL REMAINING VERY LOW. WINDS
WILL INCREASE MORE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES ONCE
AGAIN EXHIBITING THE STRONGEST GUSTS, BUT NOW UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH.
BETTER, BUT STILL FAIRLY LOW, ODDS OF WETTING RAINFALL WILL ALSO
ARRIVE SATURDAY, MAINLY IN NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL ZONES.
RED FLAG THREAT INDEX (RFTI) GRIDS ARE INDICATING A COUPLE TO A
FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN WESTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES SATURDAY, BUT GIVEN THAT ERC VALUES ARE SO LOW,
CONCERNS ARE SUPPRESSED WITH NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS PLANNED. DRY
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY WITH FORECAST MODELS SIGNIFYING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
MORE MOIST CONDITIONS ARRIVING NEXT WEEK. WHILE WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY, BOUTS OF SPOTTY TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
AND MORE SEASONABLE READINGS WOULD INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 51 83 55 73 / 0 20 30 20
DULCE........................... 41 78 46 69 / 0 10 40 50
CUBA............................ 47 77 50 74 / 0 10 10 30
GALLUP.......................... 45 80 48 72 / 0 20 20 5
EL MORRO........................ 47 75 49 71 / 0 20 20 10
GRANTS.......................... 46 79 49 75 / 0 20 20 20
QUEMADO......................... 48 78 50 76 / 0 20 20 5
MAGDALENA....................... 54 76 54 77 / 0 5 10 5
DATIL........................... 47 75 48 73 / 0 10 20 10
RESERVE......................... 48 81 49 79 / 0 20 20 0
GLENWOOD........................ 54 85 54 84 / 0 20 20 0
CHAMA........................... 42 71 45 62 / 0 5 30 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 53 74 53 71 / 0 5 0 40
PECOS........................... 48 76 47 73 / 0 0 0 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 45 74 47 68 / 0 0 0 30
RED RIVER....................... 36 67 41 62 / 0 0 0 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 28 70 36 66 / 0 0 0 30
TAOS............................ 44 77 47 71 / 0 0 0 30
MORA............................ 44 73 44 69 / 0 0 0 30
ESPANOLA........................ 49 81 51 78 / 0 0 0 30
SANTA FE........................ 51 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 49 80 50 80 / 0 0 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 59 80 60 79 / 0 5 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 58 83 59 83 / 0 5 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 52 85 52 85 / 0 5 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 56 84 58 83 / 0 5 0 5
BELEN........................... 54 85 56 85 / 0 5 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 54 84 55 82 / 0 5 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 52 84 53 84 / 0 5 0 0
CORRALES........................ 54 84 56 83 / 0 5 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 53 84 54 84 / 0 5 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 55 80 57 78 / 0 5 0 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 56 82 58 81 / 0 5 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 58 85 57 86 / 0 5 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 53 76 52 74 / 0 5 0 10
TIJERAS......................... 54 77 55 75 / 0 5 0 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 49 77 49 76 / 0 0 0 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 44 79 45 78 / 0 0 0 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 50 75 48 74 / 0 0 0 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 51 78 51 77 / 0 0 0 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 50 77 49 76 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 56 79 55 79 / 0 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 47 73 46 73 / 0 5 0 10
CAPULIN......................... 46 78 48 73 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 45 81 48 76 / 0 0 0 10
SPRINGER........................ 46 82 50 78 / 0 0 0 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 48 76 47 73 / 0 0 0 30
CLAYTON......................... 56 85 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 53 80 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 56 87 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 54 83 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 56 87 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 58 87 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 57 88 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 57 86 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 59 88 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 55 83 54 83 / 0 0 0 5
ELK............................. 52 78 50 78 / 0 0 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...71
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