818
FXUS65 KABQ 032010
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
210 PM MDT FRI OCT 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1146 AM MDT FRI OCT 3 2025
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
- BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY INCREASE MORE SATURDAY,
CREATING HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES.
- THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WETTER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT FRI OCT 3 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY, AND PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL OBSERVATIONS, THE JET APPEARS
TO BE WEAKENING ON THE BACKSIDE WITH HIGHER SPEEDS ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE LOW AND NOW BEGINNING TO PRECEDE IT. THIS WILL SLOW
THE SOUTHWARD DIG THAT THE FEATURE WAS EXHIBITING THIS MORNING AND
STEER THE LOW MORE DUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIND SPEEDS UP OVER AZ AND
SECONDARILY OVER NM TODAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING MORE FOR THE LAND
OF ENCHANTMENT SATURDAY. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
INFLATED IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY EVENING, AS THE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE RIO GRANDE AND
UNINHIBITED, SO GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO FORCE LARGE
SCALE LIFT INTO EASTERN AZ AND FAR WESTERN NM LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS TAKING SHAPE. THESE
WILL CARRY ON INTO THE LATE EVENING OVER FAR WESTERN NM WITH
BETTER FORCING VIA OROGRAPHICS STARTING TO IMPACT THE SAN JUANS OF
CO AND SECONDARILY THE CHUSKAS AND TUSAS OF NORTHWEST NM TONIGHT
AS THE LOW WORKS INTO UT.
FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, SURFACE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AND TURN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A FEW LOCALIZED DRAINAGE BREEZES EVEN
BRIEFLY BECOMING ESTABLISHED AROUND DAWN, ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS. HOWEVER, THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE CRANKING UP WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING 35-40 KT JUST A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE
SURFACE, EVEN THOUGH THE CORE OF THE 700 MB JET WILL STILL BE IN
EASTERN AZ AROUND SUNRISE. AS DIURNAL MIXING BEGINS THROUGH THE
MID TO LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, HIGHER SPEEDS ALOFT WILL
QUICKLY TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE, AND A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN IN EASTERN CO, INVOKING WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHEASTERN ZONES. THE RATON PASS (NMZ227) LOOKS TO REACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA (GUSTS OF 50 MPH), BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON AN
ISSUANCE JUST YET, AS SOME NEIGHBORING ZONES ARE MARGINAL. RAIN
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL EXPAND OVER MORE OF NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NM MIDDAY SATURDAY AS THE LOW FILLS IN AND RAPIDLY
EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER LOW,
BUT SUFFICIENT FOR SOME THUNDER SATURDAY, AND A FEW STRAY,
FLEETING SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DIP JUST SOUTH OF I-40 BEFORE
RACING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WOULD THEN REDUCE IN COVERAGE AS THEY SHIFT INTO NORTHEASTERN
PARTS OF NM SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO DECOUPLE AND
DECREASE IN SPEED SATURDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT FRI OCT 3 2025
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES VORT MAX WILL EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL VORTICES DROPPING SOUTHWARD BEHIND
IT, ONE INTO ID AND ANOTHER FASTER ONE ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS
WILL ESSENTIALLY CARVE OUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER THAN RECENT
WEEKS, BUT NOTABLY LESS THAN SATURDAY'S SPEEDS. THIS WILL SPELL
LIGHT TO MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY, AND DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER NM AS TEMPERATURES RUN NEAR TO
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL
SLATED TO DROP INTO NORTHEAST NM SUNDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY
CREATING ENOUGH SURFACE/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW OVERNIGHT
LIGHT SHOWERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A LOW
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CA MONDAY, FEEDING SOME PERTURBED AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLIES INTO NM. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE
FRONT IN NM WILL TRY TO WASH OUT AND RETREAT INTO MONDAY, BUT
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE LAGGING SURFACE/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND MODEST INSTABILITY ARE JUXTAPOSED.
THE FRONT GAINS A SECOND PUSH INTO TUESDAY, SPREADING A COOLER,
MORE MOIST AND MOSTLY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW INTO MORE OF INTERIOR
NM WHILE SMALL SCALE PERTURBATIONS MOVE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE PWATS WILL
CREEP UP TO A 0.65 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE
EASTERN ZONES. INTO WEDNESDAY, THE CA COAST LOW WILL HAVE QUICKLY
TRAVERSED THE WESTERN STATES AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WITH MORE SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES STILL MODELED TO MOVE
OVER NM. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE VEERING SOUTHERLY, BUT MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE, AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BY THURSDAY, A NEW LOW WILL BE DROPPING OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWESTERN STATES WHILE A RIDGE BROADENS OVER TX AND BEYOND.
THIS WILL KEEP A MOIST RETURN FLOW COMING FROM THE GULF, AND
ATTENTION WILL BE TURNING TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS WHERE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY WILL POTENTIALLY BE LOCATED. THE WEATHER
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK WILL CONSEQUENTLY DEPEND ON
THE INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES AND WHETHER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CAN GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH/LOW AND THE
TX RIDGE. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES HAVE A MYRIAD OF DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS, BUT ENSEMBLE MEANS AND CONSENSUS BLENDS ARE POINTING
TOWARD NORTHWESTERN NM ZONES BEING FAVORED FOR PRECIP DURING THIS
STRETCH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT FRI OCT 3 2025
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT
BEING COMMON ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY INSTANCES OF 35 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND A BRIEF DOWNPOUR
NEAR KGUP AND KFMN THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL
DECREASE IN SPEED AFTER SUNSET, BUT WILL STAY STRONG JUST OFF OF
THE SURFACE WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT
SEVERAL AIRPORTS. THROUGH THE MORNING SATURDAY, DAYTIME MIXING
WILL LEAD TO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
AND SEVERAL AREAS WILL REACH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 45 KT IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP SATURDAY, FOCUSING MAINLY IN
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT FRI OCT 3 2025
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN NM. QUICK-MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO STARTING TO POP UP OVER FAR WESTERN NM, AND
THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY VERY
SPARSE AND ISOLATED SPOTS RECEIVING AT LEAST 0.10". AS THE GREAT
BASIN LOW MOVES TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY. NORTHEASTERN ZONES WILL ONCE AGAIN HOST
THE STRONGEST GUSTS, REACHING AS HIGH AS 40 TO 50 MPH. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REFOCUS OVER NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL
ZONES ON SATURDAY WITH A FEW STRUGGLING NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF
I-40. ALONG WITH THE WINDY CONDITIONS, RECENT RED FLAG THREAT
INDEX (RFTI) GRIDS ARE STILL INDICATING A COUPLE TO A FEW HOURS OF
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
ZONES SATURDAY, FUEL MOISTURE SHOULD MITIGATE THESE CONCERNS. THE
WEATHER BECOME MORE SETTLED WITH DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. INTO MONDAY, MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND DAILY CHANCES OF SPOTTY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED, AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 56 74 40 72 / 60 30 0 0
DULCE........................... 46 69 31 70 / 60 80 5 0
CUBA............................ 50 74 38 71 / 20 40 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 50 73 32 72 / 20 10 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 49 71 35 71 / 20 10 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 49 76 34 75 / 20 20 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 50 75 36 75 / 20 10 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 55 76 45 76 / 5 10 0 0
DATIL........................... 48 73 38 73 / 10 10 0 0
RESERVE......................... 50 78 39 76 / 20 10 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 55 83 47 80 / 20 10 0 0
CHAMA........................... 44 62 29 64 / 40 70 10 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 53 71 44 70 / 10 30 20 0
PECOS........................... 47 73 41 71 / 0 20 20 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 47 69 36 67 / 5 40 30 0
RED RIVER....................... 41 62 30 62 / 0 30 20 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 35 66 20 65 / 0 20 20 0
TAOS............................ 47 72 35 71 / 5 30 20 0
MORA............................ 43 69 37 70 / 0 20 20 0
ESPANOLA........................ 50 78 41 76 / 10 30 20 0
SANTA FE........................ 52 74 43 72 / 5 20 20 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 50 79 41 76 / 5 20 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 57 79 50 76 / 0 20 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 58 82 52 79 / 0 10 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 53 84 44 81 / 5 10 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 57 83 49 79 / 5 20 5 0
BELEN........................... 55 85 49 82 / 5 5 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 55 82 47 79 / 0 20 10 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 53 83 46 81 / 5 10 5 0
CORRALES........................ 56 83 47 79 / 5 20 5 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 54 84 48 81 / 5 10 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 55 79 47 76 / 0 20 10 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 57 81 48 78 / 5 20 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 57 85 51 83 / 0 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 52 74 43 72 / 0 20 10 0
TIJERAS......................... 54 75 45 74 / 0 20 10 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 48 75 41 75 / 0 20 10 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 44 77 40 77 / 0 20 10 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 48 73 43 73 / 0 20 10 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 50 76 44 75 / 0 10 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 49 75 46 75 / 0 10 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 54 79 54 78 / 0 5 10 0
RUIDOSO......................... 46 73 44 71 / 0 10 10 5
CAPULIN......................... 49 72 42 73 / 0 5 20 0
RATON........................... 48 76 40 75 / 0 10 20 0
SPRINGER........................ 49 78 41 79 / 0 10 20 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 47 73 43 73 / 0 20 20 0
CLAYTON......................... 55 81 53 82 / 0 0 10 0
ROY............................. 52 76 47 78 / 0 5 10 0
CONCHAS......................... 56 85 54 86 / 0 5 10 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 53 81 52 83 / 0 5 10 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 56 85 57 86 / 0 0 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 56 85 57 86 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 56 86 58 87 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 56 83 56 85 / 0 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 58 88 58 90 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 54 83 54 84 / 0 5 5 5
ELK............................. 50 78 52 79 / 0 5 5 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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