913
FXUS65 KABQ 051122 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
522 AM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 519 AM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
- AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING, AS LOW TEMPERATURES DIP
BELOW FREEZING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
- A WETTER PERIOD EXPECTED EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH AREAS NEAR
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FAVORED MONDAY BEFORE
SPREADING TO MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
THE MAIN H5 LOW HAS NOW OPENED AND IS RACING NORTHWARD TOWARD
CANADA, CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN WY WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT JUST
OFF THE SURFACE STILL OVER EASTERN NM THIS EARLY HOUR. A TROUGHING
PATTERN HOLDS ONTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH WEAKENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STILL DRAPED FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NM. THIS WILL
YIELD MODEST SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE AREA, CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM BEHIND YESTERDAY'S FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEWPOINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE 10S AND 20S, AND THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT KEEPS THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLAY FOR THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO PLEASANT LEVELS FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S/60S IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 70F IN THE MID-ELEVATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM, WITH 80F TO 85F FOR MANY LOWER ELEVATION AREAS.
ROSWELL WILL BE THE HOT SPOT FLIRTING WITH 90F.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING
INTO CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO NORTHEASTERN NM EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MEETING UP WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF NEAR
EAST-CENTRAL NM. SURFACE CONVERGENCE UNDERLYING MODEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
CONVERGENT SURFACE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP A
SECONDARY PUSH OF THE BLENDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE WEST INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY TUESDAY HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
BY TUESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL FAVOR NE/KS PUSHING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ALSO PRODUCING A MODEST EAST CANYON WIND INTO SANTA FE AND
ALBUQUERQUE. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MODEST CAPPING
INVERSION WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM. ANY
ROBUST CONVECTION DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FAVOR AREAS
ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE LOW LEVEL COOLER AND MORE MOIST
AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT BEING
SOMEWHERE B/W THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN, MAINLY WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ANY SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA WILL GENERALLY TRACK
EASTWARD LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM AREAS FROM SANTA
FE TO ALBUQUERQUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
GENERALLY B/W LAS VEGAS AND SANTA FE SOUTHWARD TO RUIDOSO.
WEDNESDAY SEES ONLY A SUBTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN, BUT
PERHAPS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING FURTHER WEST JUST PAST THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS WILL FAVOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY A BIT FURTHER WEST COMPARED WITH TUESDAY.
QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND REGARDING THE
PLACEMENT OF AN H5 HIGH AND DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC COAST. SCENARIO ONE SEES THE H5 HIGH BEING THE DOMINANT
PLAYER OVER NM SHUNTING THE REMNANTS OF AN EPAC TROPICAL CYCLONE OTS
(OUT TO SEA). DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FUELED BY REMNANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE HIGH WOULD BE FAVORED
OVER NM IN THIS SCENARIO. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM THE PACIFIC
TROUGH WOULD LOOK TO PUSH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY.
SCENARIO TWO SEES THE PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHING THE H5 HIGH EAST OVER
TX AND SPINNING UP REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC TROPICAL CYCLONE
SOMEWHERE OVER AZ TO WESTERN NM BY FRIDAY. STRONGER SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WOULD ALSO BE FAVORED ACROSS NM FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES MORE OVER CENTRAL NM
BY SATURDAY. CURRENTLY, ODDS ON FAVOR SHOW A MODERATE (40% - 60%)
CHANCE FOR SCENARIO ONE COMPARED TO A LOWER (20% - 40%) CHANCE FOR
SCENARIO TWO. SEEING AS THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
DO NOT NOTABLY DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE POLAR JET OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC UNTIL WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, IT MAY BE A COUPLE
MORE DAYS BEFORE GREATER CLARITY ARRIVES FOR THE FORECAST THURSDAY
AND BEYOND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST AREAS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM THIS
MORNING, WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY GUSTS ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM
HOLDING ON. MORE WIDESPREAD PREVAILING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO RETURN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT WAS
OBSERVED SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN NM
LATE TONIGHT BRINGING A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1214 AM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT 3-5
DAYS. MODEST SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIMITED COMPARED TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY ARE THE RULE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 71 41 75 44 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 70 32 74 36 / 0 0 0 10
CUBA............................ 70 40 74 43 / 0 0 5 10
GALLUP.......................... 70 35 75 38 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 70 39 74 43 / 0 0 0 5
GRANTS.......................... 75 37 78 41 / 0 0 0 10
QUEMADO......................... 74 39 77 43 / 0 0 0 5
MAGDALENA....................... 76 48 77 51 / 0 0 5 10
DATIL........................... 72 42 74 45 / 0 0 0 10
RESERVE......................... 78 40 80 44 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 82 47 84 51 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 65 35 68 38 / 0 0 5 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 68 46 72 49 / 0 0 10 20
PECOS........................... 70 42 71 45 / 0 0 20 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 67 40 70 43 / 0 0 5 30
RED RIVER....................... 58 34 60 37 / 0 0 5 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 65 27 66 34 / 0 0 10 30
TAOS............................ 70 38 73 43 / 0 0 5 30
MORA............................ 69 37 69 41 / 0 0 20 40
ESPANOLA........................ 75 42 79 46 / 0 0 5 30
SANTA FE........................ 70 45 74 49 / 0 0 10 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 72 42 77 47 / 0 0 10 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 76 53 80 55 / 0 0 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 78 52 82 55 / 0 0 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 80 50 85 53 / 0 0 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 78 49 82 53 / 0 0 0 20
BELEN........................... 81 48 85 51 / 0 0 5 10
BERNALILLO...................... 78 47 83 52 / 0 0 5 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 80 47 84 50 / 0 0 5 20
CORRALES........................ 80 48 84 52 / 0 0 5 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 80 47 84 51 / 0 0 5 10
PLACITAS........................ 74 49 79 52 / 0 0 5 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 78 49 82 53 / 0 0 5 20
SOCORRO......................... 84 53 86 56 / 0 0 5 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 71 46 75 48 / 0 0 10 20
TIJERAS......................... 72 48 77 50 / 0 0 10 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 74 44 77 47 / 0 0 10 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 76 40 78 44 / 0 0 10 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 72 44 73 46 / 0 0 20 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 74 46 76 48 / 0 0 10 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 75 46 76 49 / 0 0 10 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 78 54 80 55 / 0 0 10 10
RUIDOSO......................... 71 49 72 50 / 0 0 20 20
CAPULIN......................... 72 39 66 43 / 0 0 10 50
RATON........................... 74 39 68 45 / 0 0 10 40
SPRINGER........................ 78 39 73 46 / 0 0 10 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 72 39 70 44 / 0 0 20 40
CLAYTON......................... 80 47 66 49 / 0 5 20 50
ROY............................. 76 43 71 48 / 0 0 20 50
CONCHAS......................... 85 49 78 52 / 0 5 20 50
SANTA ROSA...................... 81 50 78 51 / 0 5 30 50
TUCUMCARI....................... 85 53 78 52 / 0 10 20 50
CLOVIS.......................... 88 58 82 56 / 0 5 20 30
PORTALES........................ 88 58 83 56 / 0 5 20 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 85 56 82 56 / 0 10 20 40
ROSWELL......................... 90 60 84 60 / 0 5 10 10
PICACHO......................... 84 53 81 55 / 0 0 20 10
ELK............................. 80 51 79 52 / 0 0 20 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NMZ216.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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