492
FXUS65 KABQ 061123 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
523 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 506 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THIS WEEK. AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WILL BE FAVORED MONDAY BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD TO MORE
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
THREATEN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING OVER ISOLATED LOW
LYING AND POORLY DRAINED SPOTS AND ARROYOS IN CENTRAL NM,
INCLUDING SANTA FE AND ALBUQUERQUE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A
CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF CA AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER
WESTERN WY. THIS IS KEEPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTENT OVER
NM TODAY AND MONDAY, WHICH WILL ACT TO STALL A COLD FRONT BACK
SOUTHWARD THRU THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NM THIS MORNING. THE
SOUTHERN LEADING EDGE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL PROGGED TO
MEET UP AGAINST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF SOMEWHERE JUST
SOUTH OF I-40. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS SURFACE CONVERGENCE DRAPED ALONG A LINE FROM
CURRY TO DE BACA TO AN AREA IN EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. INDIVIDUAL
STORM CELLS WILL TRACK EASTWARD, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
STRETCHED N-S FROM TUCUMCARI TO ROSWELL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REORIENT ITSELF N-S ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN THIS EVENING BEFORE ADVANCING WESTWARD THRU THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. EAST CANYON WINDS WILL PUSH THRU SANTA FE
AND ALBUQUERQUE LATE TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME FOG WILL BE FAVORED IN THIS FRONT'S WAKE ALONG THE HIGHLANDS
AND EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY LOITERING ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN NM ACTING TO INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES HERE
WILL BE SUPPRESSED 10F TO 15F BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
IN CLAYTON TO 60S FURTHER SOUTH ALONG I-40 AND UPPER 70S IN ROSWELL.
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL THUS BE PRESENT FURTHER WEST WITHIN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE GREATER DAYTIME
HEATING AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD LATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL YIELD MODEST BULK SHEAR OF 25-40KTS ALLOWING FOR SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY SEVERE
TUESDAY EVENING. PERHAPS THE GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THRU
POORLY DRAINED AREAS AND METRO ARROYO SYSTEMS. PWATS REACHING NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORDS FOR EARLY OCTOBER OF NEAR 1.00" SUPPORTS
WPC'S MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THIS RISK FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO STRETCH FURTHER SOUTH TO THE RUIDOSO AREA
BURN SCARS, HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
QUESTION FOR THE DAY. OVERALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE TUESDAY
EVENING STEADILY MIGRATES EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTO MTS AND SURROUNDING HIGHLANDS AND TOWARD NORTHEASTERN NM PAST
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
WEDNESDAY BEGINS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH TUESDAY EVENING'S
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PUSHING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER WEST TO AND
PAST THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WHILE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE AS
PERSISTENT OR STUBBORN TO CLEAR OUT THRU EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY, A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE FIRST LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE SPREADING BACK EAST INTO PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM TAOS TO SANTA FE TO ALBUQUERQUE TO
SOCORRO.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO A DOME CENTERED OVER THE BIG
BEND AREA OF TX BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS A DEEP TROUGHING PATTERN
DEEPENS OFF THE PACNW COAST. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED
NORTHWARD UP THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH AZ AND PERHAPS FAR WESTERN NM. THUS ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL FAVOR FAR WESTERN NM THESE DAYS WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS FURTHER EAST TOWARD TX. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH RESOLVING THE HIGH
BREAKING DOWN AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN ADVANCING THRU
THE WESTERN CONUS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL STEADILY SPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EASTWARD ACROSS NM EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
VFR PREVAILS MOST AREAS THIS HOUR, BUT LOWER CEILINGS ARE CREEPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE LINE FROM CO BEHIND A COLD FRONT
TOWARD KRTN TO KCAO. THESE LOW CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS MUCH FURTHER INTO NM THIS MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL NM WHERE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAVORED LATER THIS AFTERNOON B/W
KCVN AND JUST NORTH OF KROW. HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30S AT KTCC AND
KROW IN RESPONSE TO THIS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO REORIENT ITSELF N-S AND PUSH WESTWARD THRU THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING. EAST CANYON WINDS
WILL RESULT AT KSAF AND KABQ PERSISTING WELL INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE DIVERSE ACROSS THE ABQ METRO AS WINDS
LOOK TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SANDIA CREST.
THEREFORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR KAEG MAY COMBAT AGAINST
EASTERLY WINDS THRU KABQ AT TIMES. MEANWHILE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM, FAVORING THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO'S AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF THIS
AT KLVS AND KTCC TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1247 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THRU THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. DRIER
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NM TODAY, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY OVER EASTERN NM. INCREASED MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY SPREADS WESTWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ROUNDS OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH OF THESE
DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 74 43 78 53 / 0 0 10 10
DULCE........................... 73 32 74 40 / 0 5 20 30
CUBA............................ 72 41 72 46 / 0 5 30 40
GALLUP.......................... 75 36 78 45 / 0 0 10 10
EL MORRO........................ 75 42 73 47 / 0 0 30 20
GRANTS.......................... 78 40 74 47 / 0 0 30 40
QUEMADO......................... 77 41 77 49 / 0 0 20 20
MAGDALENA....................... 76 50 73 53 / 0 0 40 40
DATIL........................... 74 43 72 48 / 0 0 30 40
RESERVE......................... 77 43 81 48 / 0 0 10 20
GLENWOOD........................ 81 48 85 53 / 0 0 10 10
CHAMA........................... 67 37 67 40 / 0 5 20 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 71 48 67 50 / 0 10 30 50
PECOS........................... 67 45 64 47 / 10 20 30 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 68 42 68 45 / 10 20 20 30
RED RIVER....................... 58 35 59 37 / 10 20 20 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 66 32 63 33 / 10 30 30 30
TAOS............................ 72 40 70 44 / 0 20 20 30
MORA............................ 64 41 63 42 / 10 30 30 50
ESPANOLA........................ 76 45 74 50 / 0 10 20 50
SANTA FE........................ 72 49 68 50 / 10 20 30 60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 75 48 71 49 / 5 10 30 60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 78 55 75 57 / 0 10 30 60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 80 52 78 55 / 0 10 30 60
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 83 50 80 55 / 0 10 30 60
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 80 52 78 55 / 0 10 30 60
BELEN........................... 84 48 81 52 / 0 10 30 60
BERNALILLO...................... 81 51 78 55 / 0 10 30 60
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 83 48 79 52 / 0 10 30 60
CORRALES........................ 81 50 78 55 / 0 10 30 60
LOS LUNAS....................... 83 49 80 53 / 0 10 30 60
PLACITAS........................ 79 52 73 53 / 0 10 30 60
RIO RANCHO...................... 80 51 77 55 / 0 10 30 60
SOCORRO......................... 83 54 81 56 / 0 5 30 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 74 47 69 49 / 5 10 40 60
TIJERAS......................... 76 49 70 50 / 5 10 40 60
EDGEWOOD........................ 76 45 69 48 / 10 10 40 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 77 44 71 46 / 10 10 40 60
CLINES CORNERS.................. 69 45 63 46 / 10 20 40 60
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 76 46 71 48 / 10 10 40 60
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 76 48 71 48 / 5 10 40 60
CARRIZOZO....................... 78 55 75 55 / 5 10 40 40
RUIDOSO......................... 71 50 65 50 / 20 10 40 40
CAPULIN......................... 61 43 59 45 / 10 50 20 20
RATON........................... 64 45 62 47 / 20 40 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 67 47 63 47 / 10 40 20 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 64 44 60 45 / 20 40 40 60
CLAYTON......................... 60 47 57 51 / 10 50 20 20
ROY............................. 63 48 60 50 / 20 50 30 60
CONCHAS......................... 69 51 64 53 / 30 50 30 60
SANTA ROSA...................... 69 50 65 51 / 30 40 40 60
TUCUMCARI....................... 69 50 63 51 / 30 50 30 60
CLOVIS.......................... 77 54 71 55 / 40 40 30 40
PORTALES........................ 79 55 73 55 / 30 30 30 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 79 55 71 55 / 40 40 40 50
ROSWELL......................... 87 60 77 58 / 20 20 20 40
PICACHO......................... 80 54 72 54 / 40 20 30 40
ELK............................. 78 51 69 51 / 20 20 30 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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