455
FXUS65 KABQ 061932
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
132 PM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1203 PM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS WEEK WITH TODAY, TUESDAY,
AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS. AREAS NEAR
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL BE FAVORED TODAY
BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD TO MORE OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING OVER ISOLATED LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED SPOTS AND
ARROYOS IN CENTRAL NM, INCLUDING SANTA FE AND ALBUQUERQUE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A
WEAK CUT-OFF LOW OFFSHORE OF CA. THIS IS FEEDING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW INTO NM. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ERODED AWAY AND BURNED OFF IN
NORTHEASTERN NM DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, AND
THE BACKDOOR FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE PUSHED INTO EAST CENTRAL NM...
SOUTH OF I-40 IN ROOSEVELT, DE BACA, SOUTHERN GUADALUPE, AND
TORRANCE COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
INITIATE NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. AMPLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR COULD LEND TO A COUPLE OF STRONG, ROTATING
UPDRAFTS THAT PRODUCE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS THROUGH THE EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GROW UPSCALE, EXPANDING ACROSS EASTERN NM
TONIGHT WITH THE SEVERE THREAT DWINDLING, BUT AMPLE LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL GAIN A
WESTWARD PUSH WITH THIS EVENING'S CONVECTION, AND EASTERLIES WILL
SURGE THROUGH GAPS AND CANYONS, PRODUCING SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS
INTO PARTS OF SANTA FE, EASTERN ALBUQUERQUE, AND OTHER VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS. GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH WILL BE LIKELY AT THE MOUTH OF THE
TIJERAS CANYON BEFORE DAWN TUESDAY WITH OTHER PARTS OF THE METRO
AREA GETTING PARTIALLY SHIELDED BY THE SANDIAS.
ONGOING SHOWERS WILL TURN MORE SPOTTY AND RETREAT OVER EASTERN NM
TUESDAY WITH CLOUDY AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL RETAIN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY THAT
COULD HELP TRIGGER CONVECTIVE INITIATION, AND THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WILL ALSO HAVE A SIMILAR UPSLOPE COMPONENT WORKING THERE.
WITH EAST SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND WEST SOUTHWESTERLIES
ALOFT, THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGH BULK SHEAR (45-55 KT 0-6 KM
LAYER) WITH A FEW CELLS TURNING STRONG TO SEVERE CENTRALLY
BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STORMS
ARE MODELED TO CARRY ON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, MOSTLY WITHIN
INTERIOR/CENTRAL ZONES, LOSING THEIR SEVERE THREAT, BUT STILL
POSING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. MORE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL RAIN-SOAKED AREAS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
THE SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WILL START TO RELAX A BIT OVER NM ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS SWELLING OVER TX. THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL START TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY, AND WHILE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL REDUCE, SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY
IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN AREAS WHERE PWATS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 0.9 TO 1.1 INCH. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT.
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO EXPAND MORE FROM
TX INTO NM WHILE A DEEP PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW ENCROACHES UPON THE
OR AND CA COASTS. MEANWHILE, HURRICANE PRISCILLA WILL BE LIKELY
DRIFTING NORTH NORTHWESTWARD JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA, AND
THE EVOLUTION OF ALL OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE KEY DRIVERS FOR
WEATHER ACROSS THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE
UPPER HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR THURSDAY, ACTING TO
SUPPRESS, BUT NOT FULLY CHOKE CONVECTION. ANY STORMS THURSDAY
WOULD FAVOR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. INTO FRIDAY, THE HIGH MAY STALL OR
EVEN RETREAT JUST A BIT WHILE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
STREAM NORTHEAST OF PRISCILLA INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER BASIN AND
FOUR CORNERS. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY INCREASE STORM CHANCES FOR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FRIDAY.
UNCERTAINTIES GROW MORE INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT THE MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW TO FILL IN
AND MOVE INLAND AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WOULD KEEP THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES FAVORED FOR AN INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE (REGARDLESS IF PRISCILLA HAS ANY IDENTIFIABLE
CHARACTERISTICS LEFT AT THAT POINT). THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS COULD SURVIVE BEYOND THAT WITH ADDITIONAL
SMALLER SCALE LOWS ORBITING THROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT FETCHES OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. GRAND
ENSEMBLE MEANS BETWEEN THE MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS SUPPORT THIS GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD KEEP NM ACTIVE WITH STORMS IN OCTOBER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.
STORMS COULD BRIEFLY TURN SEVERE WITH HAIL, LIGHTNING, AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. SHOWERS AND MORE GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG FILLING IN BETWEEN DOWNPOURS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
(CEILINGS LESS THAN 3000 FT) AND SCATTERED IFR (CEILINGS LESS THAN
1000 FT) ARE FORECAST THROUGH DAWN TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING
INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH GUSTS NEARING 35 KT AT KABQ WHICH MAY
PROMPT AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1203 PM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
NO WIDESPREAD OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL START TO
EXPAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING PERIODS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFERING SPOTTY AREAS OF SOAKING
RAINFALL, MAINLY IN CENTRAL NM. WIND CONCERNS WILL BE FOCUSED ON
EAST CANYON EVENTS IN VULNERABLE CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE,
NAMELY TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 42 78 51 79 / 0 10 20 20
DULCE........................... 34 73 40 71 / 0 20 30 40
CUBA............................ 41 71 46 70 / 0 30 40 50
GALLUP.......................... 34 78 44 77 / 0 10 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 39 73 46 72 / 0 30 30 50
GRANTS.......................... 37 72 46 71 / 0 30 40 60
QUEMADO......................... 40 77 48 75 / 5 20 20 40
MAGDALENA....................... 49 73 52 71 / 10 50 40 50
DATIL........................... 41 73 47 70 / 10 40 40 50
RESERVE......................... 42 81 48 78 / 0 20 20 40
GLENWOOD........................ 48 85 53 81 / 0 20 20 30
CHAMA........................... 36 67 39 64 / 5 20 30 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 49 66 50 66 / 10 30 50 50
PECOS........................... 45 63 46 66 / 30 50 60 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 42 66 44 66 / 20 20 30 30
RED RIVER....................... 35 60 35 61 / 20 30 30 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 36 63 35 64 / 30 30 40 30
TAOS............................ 42 69 44 69 / 10 20 30 30
MORA............................ 41 62 41 66 / 40 50 50 40
ESPANOLA........................ 46 73 49 73 / 10 30 40 40
SANTA FE........................ 49 69 51 69 / 20 40 50 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 47 72 49 72 / 10 40 50 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 72 56 73 / 5 40 60 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 55 76 55 76 / 5 40 50 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 50 77 50 77 / 5 40 50 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 76 55 75 / 5 40 50 30
BELEN........................... 50 80 54 78 / 5 40 50 40
BERNALILLO...................... 50 76 53 75 / 5 40 50 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 48 78 51 77 / 5 40 50 40
CORRALES........................ 50 76 53 76 / 5 40 50 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 49 78 53 77 / 5 40 50 40
PLACITAS........................ 51 72 53 72 / 5 40 50 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 51 74 54 74 / 5 40 50 30
SOCORRO......................... 55 81 56 78 / 10 50 50 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 47 67 49 67 / 10 50 60 50
TIJERAS......................... 49 68 51 70 / 10 50 60 50
EDGEWOOD........................ 46 66 49 69 / 10 50 60 50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 44 68 46 71 / 10 60 70 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 45 60 46 66 / 20 60 70 40
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 47 69 49 71 / 10 50 60 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 47 69 48 71 / 20 60 60 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 55 73 53 73 / 20 60 50 30
RUIDOSO......................... 45 63 45 65 / 30 60 60 40
CAPULIN......................... 43 58 46 67 / 70 40 30 20
RATON........................... 46 61 46 71 / 60 40 30 20
SPRINGER........................ 47 63 47 73 / 50 40 30 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 45 59 45 66 / 40 50 60 40
CLAYTON......................... 47 58 50 71 / 70 50 30 30
ROY............................. 47 58 48 67 / 70 50 50 40
CONCHAS......................... 51 64 52 73 / 60 50 60 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 50 63 51 70 / 50 50 70 50
TUCUMCARI....................... 50 65 51 75 / 70 50 50 40
CLOVIS.......................... 55 68 54 74 / 60 50 50 30
PORTALES........................ 55 72 54 76 / 60 60 50 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 55 68 54 71 / 50 60 70 30
ROSWELL......................... 61 75 58 76 / 30 30 50 30
PICACHO......................... 55 69 53 71 / 30 50 50 30
ELK............................. 52 67 50 68 / 30 40 40 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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