384
FXUS65 KABQ 071127 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
527 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 520 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NM TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL THREATEN FLASH FLOODING
OVER LOW LAYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS, INCLUDING THE RUIDOSO
AREA BURN SCARS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HAIL, AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 451 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS SHOWING PERSISTING 100% HUMIDITY AND THE
NMDOT WEBCAM AT CLINES CORNERS SHOWING NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THRU
10 AM MDT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS ADVANCED THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT BRINGING EAST CANYON WINDS GUSTING 15 TO
30MPH THRU SANTA FE AND ALBUQUERQUE. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
MOISTURE HIGHLIGHTED BY TD'S IN THE 40S AND 50S LAY IN ITS WAY
ACROSS EASTERN NM. LOW STRATUS WITH SPLOTCHES OF PATCHY FOG AND MIST
ALSO LAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NM WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
THIS MORNING. ALL OF THIS UNDERLAYS A SYNOPTIC TROUGHING PATTERN
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT OVER NM.
HIRES CAMS ARE NOW BITING ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING
INITIATION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS COOLER AND MORE MOIST
AIRMASS ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG
ALONGSIDE STRONGER BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KTS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW CELLS
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE SUPPORTING THE SPC'S MARGINAL RISK THRU
CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLUSTER OF INITIAL STORM CELLS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LOOK TO FIZZLE
OUT OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NM BEFORE THE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER
THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS FAVORED TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
BECOMING OUTFLOW DOMINANT RIDING AGAINST THE GRAIN INTO SURFACE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SOUTHWARD TO THE RUIDOSO AREA
BURN SCARS WHERE TWO ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD 0.10" TO
0.50" WILL FAVOR THIS CENTRAL SWATH OF NM WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP
TO 2.00" POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS OCCUR. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS.
SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE ADVECTION ADVANCES A BIT
FURTHER WEST REACHING THE AZ BORDER. GIVEN THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
NM SHOULD BE WORKED OVER WELL FROM TUESDAY'S ACTIVITY, INSTABILITY
WILL FAVOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
REMAINS IN THIS AREA AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHERE STORMS WILL BE
FAVORED TO GO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TX BIG BEND AREA
THURSDAY, SHUNTING NORTHERLY ADVECTION OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
AZ AND THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO THIS
AREA AS A RESULT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACNW WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE PRISCILLA INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, MAINLY AZ AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES STEADILY SHIFT WEST TO EAST OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES WEST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS,
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OVER TX AND SOUTHEASTERN NM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND GENERALLY NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 60. IN FACT,
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY WAS OBSERVED ON THE WEBCAM NEAR CLINES
CORNERS THIS PAST HOUR. AS FOR TERMINALS IFR/MVFR VIS WILL MAINLY
BE FOCUSED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. EAST CANYON WINDS CONTINUE
AT KSAF AND KABQ. NORTHERLY WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SANDIA MTS INTO KAEG DID BRIEFLY REACH KABQ THIS PAST
HOUR, AND A TEMPO GROUP IS INTRODUCED FOR THAT TO POTENTIALLY
HAPPEN AGAIN THIS MORNING. EVEN IF THE SUNPORT SEES NORTHERLY
WINDS AT THE TERMINAL, EAST CANYON WINDS BELOW TIJERAS CANYON ARE
LIKELY TO JUST HAVE BEEN PUSHED A BIT SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OF THE
KABQ TERMINAL. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FAVORED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NM TODAY, SPREADING
EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY OF
THE STRONGER STORMS. SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW TO TAPER OFF B/W KSRR
AND KROW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP
OVER EASTERN NM AND ADVANCE WESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY FROM KSAF TO KABQ. AREAS FURTHER WEST ALONG THE AZ
BORDER INCLUDING KGUP AND KFMN WILL STAY VFR WITH LIGHTER
PREVAILING WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS EASTERN
NM TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, PREVAILING WINDS AND HUMIDITY
WILL REMAIN NOTABLY OUTSIDE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 79 52 79 55 / 0 10 10 10
DULCE........................... 76 41 70 44 / 5 30 40 30
CUBA............................ 72 46 68 47 / 30 30 60 40
GALLUP.......................... 79 46 77 49 / 0 5 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 75 48 71 48 / 20 20 50 30
GRANTS.......................... 74 47 72 48 / 30 30 60 40
QUEMADO......................... 79 49 74 49 / 30 10 40 30
MAGDALENA....................... 74 52 70 52 / 60 40 50 30
DATIL........................... 73 48 69 48 / 40 30 60 40
RESERVE......................... 83 48 77 49 / 10 10 40 30
GLENWOOD........................ 87 55 80 54 / 10 10 30 30
CHAMA........................... 69 41 64 42 / 10 30 50 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 67 50 66 51 / 40 40 60 30
PECOS........................... 62 46 65 47 / 20 50 50 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 69 44 66 46 / 20 20 30 20
RED RIVER....................... 60 38 58 39 / 20 20 30 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 63 34 63 34 / 30 20 30 10
TAOS............................ 71 45 68 46 / 20 20 20 20
MORA............................ 61 42 66 42 / 30 40 50 20
ESPANOLA........................ 75 50 72 50 / 30 40 50 30
SANTA FE........................ 67 50 66 50 / 20 50 50 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 70 49 69 49 / 30 50 50 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 75 56 72 57 / 60 60 50 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 78 55 75 56 / 60 50 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 80 54 76 55 / 60 50 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 78 55 75 55 / 60 50 40 40
BELEN........................... 81 53 78 54 / 70 50 40 40
BERNALILLO...................... 79 54 75 54 / 50 50 40 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 80 52 77 52 / 70 50 40 40
CORRALES........................ 79 54 75 54 / 50 50 40 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 80 52 77 53 / 70 50 40 40
PLACITAS........................ 74 53 71 54 / 50 60 50 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 79 54 74 55 / 50 50 40 40
SOCORRO......................... 83 57 78 57 / 60 40 40 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 67 49 67 50 / 60 60 50 40
TIJERAS......................... 70 51 69 52 / 60 60 50 40
EDGEWOOD........................ 67 49 69 48 / 60 60 50 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 67 47 70 45 / 60 60 50 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 59 46 65 48 / 60 70 50 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 69 49 70 49 / 70 60 50 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 70 49 70 48 / 70 60 50 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 74 54 72 53 / 50 50 40 20
RUIDOSO......................... 63 49 65 48 / 60 60 40 20
CAPULIN......................... 56 46 67 47 / 30 20 10 5
RATON........................... 58 47 70 46 / 30 20 10 5
SPRINGER........................ 60 48 72 46 / 30 20 10 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 46 65 46 / 40 50 40 20
CLAYTON......................... 55 50 70 55 / 30 30 10 0
ROY............................. 56 49 66 51 / 40 40 20 5
CONCHAS......................... 61 53 73 55 / 40 50 30 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 52 70 53 / 40 60 50 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 61 53 74 54 / 40 50 40 0
CLOVIS.......................... 65 55 74 56 / 50 70 30 0
PORTALES........................ 66 55 74 56 / 50 60 30 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 55 72 56 / 50 80 40 5
ROSWELL......................... 72 59 77 59 / 40 70 30 5
PICACHO......................... 69 54 71 54 / 50 60 40 10
ELK............................. 69 51 68 51 / 50 50 40 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NMZ223.
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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