649
FXUS65 KABQ 071847
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1247 PM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1204 PM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
- A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 12PM TO 6AM
WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO AREAS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL THREATEN FLASH
FLOODING OVER LOW LAYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS, INCLUDING THE
RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HAIL, AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
TODAY'S WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO. A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST BACK
TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING OUT
WHICH IS MAINTAINING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONCE THE TROUGH
SHEARS OUT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER TEXAS AND A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW.
AT THE SURFACE YESTERDAY'S BACKDOOR FRONT HAS STALLED FROM THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE/RGV BACK SE TOWARDS THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
MOISTURE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAS INCREASED AND WILL BE THE DRIVER
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. INSTABILITY
SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
EASTERN NM STILL HAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW STRATUS BUT THIS CLOUD
COVER SHOULD ERODE WITH TIME AND MIXING. THERE IS ALSO A SOLID
40-50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY STORM MODES ARE LIKELY TO BE PULSE STORMS IN
NATURE BUT THOSE UPDRAFTS THAT CAN BECOME MORE ROBUST SHOULD BE
ABLE TO TAP THE SHEAR FOR BETTER ORGANIZATION LEADING TO THE HAIL
AND WIND THREATS.
HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS POINT TO STORMS INITIATING IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE RGV AND THEN THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. THE PROGRESS POINTS TO
A FEW STORMS IMPACTING THE RUIDOSO AREAS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING EAST. MORE ROBUST STORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP IN THE RGV
PARTICULARLY VALENCIA CO BUT IF THESE STORMS ARE DISPLACED AT ALL
THEN ABQ METRO COULD GET SOME STRONGER STORMS. ABQ METRO IS NOT
OUT OF IT BY A LONG SHOT BUT THE PROBABILITIES ARE TILTED TOWARDS
WEAKER STORMS WITH LESS INFLOW.
STORMS OVER C NM THEN DEVELOP EASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY SE AS
OUTFLOWS START NEW STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CAMS HAVE A SOLID
SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER TORRANCE CO SPREADING TOWARDS N
CHAVES CO. LATEST QPF FORECAST REFLECT THAT EVOLUTION AND GIVEN
THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXPANDED IN
AREA TO COVER THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM THESE CLUSTERS OF
STORMS. HREF EVEN HAS ACTIVITY GOING UNTIL 12-18Z WEDNESDAY IN SE
NM WITH MODERATE RAINFALL. RIGHT NOW IT IS CHALLENGING TO QUANTIFY
HOW MUCH FLOODING WILL OCCUR FROM THIS ACTIVITY OR IF THE STORMS
REALLY WILL ACHIEVE HIGH RAIN RATES BUT THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE
TO SUPPORT STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH CONVECTION ACROSS
MUCH OF NEW MEXICO BUT A LOT OF THAT ACTIVITY WILL HINGE ON THE
STABILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND WHAT GETS WORKED OVER BY PREVIOUS
CONVECTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS OVER W NM AND
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THAN EASTERN NM. HREF SEEMS TO HAVE A
SIGNAL FOR THIS KIND OF EVOLUTION AND ANY ACTIVITY OVER CIBOLA CO
COULD PUSH INTO THE ABQ METRO LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS ALSO
MEANS FOR A LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE RUIDOSO AREA FOR BURN
SCAR FLOODING. THAT SAID MONITORING THE REMNANT ACTIVITY OVER E NM
FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE KEY FOR FORECASTING ANY IMPACTS
IN RUIDOSO.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN THE WEEKEND THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY WELL SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NW OR JUST OFF THE COAST
WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER TEXAS. AND YES THEN THERE IS HURRICANE
PRISCILLA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. GIVEN THE PATTERN PRISCILLA IS
PRIMED TO JOURNEY NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE BAJA AND
EVENTUALLY AZ. W NM IS IN LINE TO SEE SOME MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM BUT STILL PRETTY LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MOISTURE WILL
EVOLVE. FORECAST WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PROGRESSING FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS NM FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IT IS HARD TO SAY WHICH OF ANY ONE DAY WILL BE MORE IMPACTFUL THAN
THE OTHER AT THIS POINT. IF THERE IS AT TIME PERIOD IT IS MORE
LIKELY TO BE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS WITH A
SHEARED OUT PRISCILLA MOVE ACROSS AZ AND THE FOUR CORNERS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
MIX OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST IN E NM WITH LOW STRATUS IN PLACE
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
ERODE WITH CEILINGS LIFTING AS A RESULT. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY FOR KABQ/KAEG
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN STORMS BECOMING MORE AN ISSUE FOR KSAF/KLVS
AND KTCC. KROW WILL NOT BE LEFT OUT BUT LOOKING AT A LATER TIME
FOR STORMS. TAFS COVER THAT PROGRESSION BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TAFS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS STORMS PROGRESS. KABQ AND KAEG COULD BE
DEALING WITH FOG/LOW CLOUDS 12-15Z TOMORROW WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS BACK ENTRENCHED OVER E NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1204 PM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
OVERALL THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS QUITE
LOW ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY COME CLOSE
IS NE NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY AS SW WINDS INCREASE FROM THE
HIGHLANDS TO THE NE PLAINS. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 30S
HOWEVER AND ERCS BELOW THE 50TH PERCENTILE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 53 79 56 77 / 5 20 20 20
DULCE........................... 40 70 42 74 / 30 40 40 30
CUBA............................ 47 70 47 70 / 30 60 40 30
GALLUP.......................... 48 78 48 73 / 0 30 20 30
EL MORRO........................ 48 72 47 70 / 20 60 40 40
GRANTS.......................... 47 73 47 72 / 30 70 40 40
QUEMADO......................... 49 75 49 73 / 10 50 30 30
MAGDALENA....................... 52 71 53 71 / 40 60 30 30
DATIL........................... 48 69 48 68 / 30 60 40 30
RESERVE......................... 48 79 49 78 / 10 60 30 30
GLENWOOD........................ 54 83 53 82 / 10 50 30 20
CHAMA........................... 40 64 42 69 / 30 50 30 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 50 67 50 69 / 40 70 40 20
PECOS........................... 46 66 47 70 / 60 60 30 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 44 67 46 72 / 20 30 20 20
RED RIVER....................... 37 59 39 63 / 20 30 10 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 32 64 33 67 / 20 30 10 10
TAOS............................ 44 69 45 73 / 20 30 20 10
MORA............................ 41 67 42 70 / 40 50 20 20
ESPANOLA........................ 50 74 50 76 / 40 60 30 20
SANTA FE........................ 50 67 51 70 / 50 60 30 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 49 70 49 73 / 50 60 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 57 75 57 75 / 60 60 40 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 55 77 55 78 / 60 60 40 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 54 79 55 80 / 60 60 40 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 55 77 56 77 / 50 60 40 10
BELEN........................... 53 79 52 80 / 60 50 30 10
BERNALILLO...................... 54 77 54 78 / 50 60 40 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 52 78 52 78 / 60 50 40 10
CORRALES........................ 54 78 55 78 / 50 60 40 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 53 78 53 78 / 60 50 40 10
PLACITAS........................ 53 72 54 73 / 60 60 40 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 54 77 55 77 / 50 60 40 10
SOCORRO......................... 56 80 56 80 / 50 40 30 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 49 68 49 70 / 70 70 40 20
TIJERAS......................... 51 70 51 72 / 70 60 40 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 48 70 47 73 / 70 60 40 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 47 71 45 73 / 70 60 30 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 47 64 47 68 / 80 60 30 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 48 71 48 73 / 70 50 30 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 48 71 47 73 / 60 50 30 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 55 74 53 75 / 50 40 20 10
RUIDOSO......................... 50 64 48 67 / 60 40 20 10
CAPULIN......................... 46 67 47 73 / 10 10 5 5
RATON........................... 48 71 46 75 / 10 10 5 5
SPRINGER........................ 48 72 47 76 / 20 10 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 46 64 47 69 / 50 50 20 10
CLAYTON......................... 51 71 54 78 / 20 10 0 0
ROY............................. 50 67 51 73 / 30 30 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 53 72 54 78 / 60 40 10 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 52 68 52 74 / 80 50 20 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 52 72 53 79 / 60 50 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 55 75 57 80 / 60 40 0 0
PORTALES........................ 56 76 57 80 / 60 30 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 55 72 55 78 / 70 40 10 5
ROSWELL......................... 59 77 59 80 / 60 30 5 5
PICACHO......................... 55 72 54 76 / 60 30 10 5
ELK............................. 52 70 50 73 / 50 30 10 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ221>224-226-233-237>239.
SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...39
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