319
FXUS65 KABQ 080711
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
111 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 100 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER ISOLATED
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCUR.
- PATCHY MIST AND FOG ALONG PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLANDS FROM LAS
VEGAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CLINES CORNERS, CORONA TO RUIDOSO WILL
PRODUCE POCKETS OF LOW VISIBILITY THIS MORNING.
- OFF-AND-ON ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WESTERN
NM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL ADD UP PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS RESULTING IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SPREADING ACROSS THAT HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EAST CANYON WINDS PUSHING THRU TIJERAS CANYON HAS CONTINUED THE
INFLUX OF THIS AIRMASS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. COUPLED WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEN EARLIER LAST EVENING, THIS COULD LEAD THE
WAY TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE ABQ METRO AREA,
NAMELY ALONG THE WEST MESA AND RIO RANCHO AND DOWN INTO THE NORTH
VALLEY AREA BY SUNRISE. MEANWHILE SPORADIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. ONE CLUSTER FROM NEAR SANTA
FE TO CLINES CORNERS AND ANOTHER OVER CLOVIS WILL STEADILY TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT AS THEY MOVE EAST TOWARD OR INTO TX. OTHERWISE, VISIBILITY
FROM PATCHY DENSE FOG IN SPOTS ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MAINLY
FROM LAS VEGAS SOUTHWARD THRU CLINES CORNERS TO CORONA AND RUIDOSO
WILL BE THE OTHER THING TO LOOK OUT FOR THRU THE MORNING. DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN SOME OF THOSE LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE BEGINNING OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHEASTERN NM. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL PUSHING MOISTURE UPSLOPE INTO CENTRAL NM WILL RESULT IN
LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS EASTERN NM. CLEARER SKIES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION
AND THUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OR
EVEN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL STEADILY TRACK
NORTHWARD FILLING INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THRU
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PWATS HOVERING NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAXIMUMS NEAR 1.00", SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL THREATEN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
ANY ONE OF THESE STRONGER STORM CELLS REMAINS ACROSS THESE AREAS
ALONG AND AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO STEADILY WANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AFTER WHICH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND MIST COULD DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL NM.
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO FEATURE HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE H5
RIDGE COALESCING TO A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FAR WEST
TX, WHILE A TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FUNNELS NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD FROM HURRICANE PRISCILLA MAINLY OVER AZ. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG THE AZ BORDER AS A
RESULT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS LOOK TO DRY OUT
AND WARM UP.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
FRIDAY BEGINS THE LONG TERM WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PRISCILLA
CONTINUING TO FUNNEL NORTHWARD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, MAINLY AZ.
A PERSISTENT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS FAVORED OVER
AZ EXTENDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND NAVAJO NATION AREA INTO
NORTHWESTERN NM. A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FROM THIS PERSISTENT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION DOES EXTEND INTO FAR
NORTHWESTERN NM FRIDAY, CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THREE DAY RAINFALL
TOTALS FROM FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM COULD ADD UP TO
1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS. SUNDAY IN PARTICULAR CONTINUES TO
SEE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED
H5 LOW OFF THE PACNW WILL OPEN UP TO A TROUGH AND TRACK WEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL STEADILY SHIFT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO THE EAST ACROSS NM SUNDAY. A SECONDARY WAVE OF ENERGY IN
THE POLAR JET LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF TO ANOTHER H5 LOW OFF NEAR THE
PACNW CONTINUING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TAP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OF OFF-AND-ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN REMAINS TONIGHT. FOG
AND MIST WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AT MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE
HIGHLANDS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL. SPORADIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL DOTTING A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR
KSAF TO K0E0 AS WELL AS NEAR KCVN TO KROW THIS HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WANE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NEAR KSAF TO KABQ AND
KAEG IS POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING HOW MUCH COVERAGE
THERE WILL BE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT KAEG WILL BE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THIS COMPARED TO KABQ. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NM
WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHERE PROB30S ARE
INCLUDED AT KFMN-KGUP-KABQ-KAEG-KSAF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 100 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS EASTERN
NM TODAY. OTHERWISE, PREVAILING WINDS AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
NOTABLY OUTSIDE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 80 56 75 58 / 30 20 30 50
DULCE........................... 71 42 73 46 / 30 30 40 40
CUBA............................ 70 47 70 50 / 50 30 30 30
GALLUP.......................... 77 49 72 50 / 30 30 40 40
EL MORRO........................ 71 49 68 50 / 40 30 40 30
GRANTS.......................... 71 48 70 50 / 50 30 40 30
QUEMADO......................... 74 49 71 50 / 50 30 30 20
MAGDALENA....................... 70 53 69 53 / 30 30 20 10
DATIL........................... 68 48 67 50 / 50 40 30 20
RESERVE......................... 77 49 76 50 / 40 30 20 20
GLENWOOD........................ 82 54 81 55 / 40 20 20 10
CHAMA........................... 65 42 68 45 / 40 20 30 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 66 50 68 53 / 30 20 30 20
PECOS........................... 66 47 69 50 / 40 30 20 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 67 46 71 49 / 20 10 20 20
RED RIVER....................... 59 39 62 41 / 20 10 10 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 64 32 68 34 / 30 10 10 20
TAOS............................ 70 45 72 47 / 20 20 10 20
MORA............................ 67 42 69 44 / 40 20 20 20
ESPANOLA........................ 73 50 75 53 / 30 20 20 20
SANTA FE........................ 67 51 69 54 / 30 20 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 70 50 72 52 / 30 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 73 58 73 60 / 30 30 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 75 55 76 58 / 20 20 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 77 55 78 57 / 20 20 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 75 56 76 58 / 20 20 10 10
BELEN........................... 77 53 78 55 / 20 20 10 5
BERNALILLO...................... 76 55 76 57 / 20 20 10 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 76 53 77 55 / 20 20 10 10
CORRALES........................ 76 55 77 57 / 20 20 10 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 76 54 77 56 / 20 20 10 10
PLACITAS........................ 71 54 72 56 / 30 20 20 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 75 55 75 57 / 20 20 10 10
SOCORRO......................... 77 58 79 58 / 30 20 10 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 67 50 68 51 / 40 30 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 69 52 70 53 / 40 30 20 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 68 48 70 49 / 40 30 20 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 70 47 72 47 / 50 30 10 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 65 47 69 49 / 40 20 10 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 69 48 71 50 / 30 30 10 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 69 48 71 49 / 40 30 10 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 72 54 74 53 / 40 20 10 5
RUIDOSO......................... 64 49 66 48 / 40 20 10 5
CAPULIN......................... 67 47 72 50 / 10 5 5 5
RATON........................... 71 45 75 49 / 10 10 5 5
SPRINGER........................ 72 47 76 50 / 10 10 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 65 47 69 48 / 30 20 10 5
CLAYTON......................... 71 55 78 57 / 10 5 5 5
ROY............................. 66 51 73 52 / 20 10 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 72 54 79 55 / 30 10 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 68 52 74 52 / 40 10 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 72 53 80 54 / 30 10 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 72 56 80 56 / 40 10 5 5
PORTALES........................ 75 56 80 57 / 40 10 5 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 71 55 77 55 / 40 10 5 5
ROSWELL......................... 76 59 80 57 / 30 10 5 5
PICACHO......................... 71 54 75 52 / 30 20 5 5
ELK............................. 69 50 71 49 / 30 20 10 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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