686
FXUS65 KABQ 090722
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
122 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 120 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
- AN ABNORMAL STRONG PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA AND ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM WILL PRESENT EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
A TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD BETWEEN AN H5 HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX AND A DEEPENING 544DM H5 LOW
OFF THE PACNW COAST. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WITH POCKETS OF PATCHY FOG
OVER HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WILL PERSIST THRU THE
MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP A BIT. TODAY'S ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE SANDIA/MANZANO'S THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE SAME AREAS REPEATEDLY OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND NAVAJO NATION AREA LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY SEES LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP, BUT WITH THE
CORE OF THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL REMNANT MOISTURE OF WHAT IS NOW TS
PRISCILLA PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS AZ AND NAVAJO NATION. A MORE
STEADY AND EFFICIENT STREAM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING
OVER THE SAME AREAS REPEATEDLY RELATIVE TO THURSDAY WILL YIELD A
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING. THIS AREA IS MAINLY FOCUSED WEST OF THE AZ/NM LINE BUT
DOES SPREAD INTO NORTHWESTERN NM. 24-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50" TO
1.00" WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NM FRIDAY
MORNING THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH
MOISTURE FROM PRISCILLA WILL BE PRESENT AS CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALREADY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION NEARLY CEASING NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER SSTS. THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING COULD END UP EASILY BEING A BIT SUBDUED IF
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ENDS UP BEING UNDERWHELMING COMBINED WITH
RELATIVE FAST STEERING FLOW TO PUSH INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS ALONG AT
A FAST CLIP. THEREFORE, WILL PUNT DECISION TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NM TO THE DAY SHIFT. ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH
LOOKS TO FAVOR THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME
HOWEVER.
ALL THE WHILE, AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WILL GET A BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH FAIRLY TAME WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE PRESENT INTO PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EACH
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
SATURDAY BEGINS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH THE CLOSED H5 LOW OPENING
TO A TROUGH AS IT BEGINS ITS TREK ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THE TAP OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE REMNANTS
OF TS PRISCILLA, BUT TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER EXTENT. NEVERTHELESS, THE
RIGHT EXIT REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL FAVOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED
WITHIN THE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN NM. THIS LOOKS
TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NM ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. YET ANOTHER MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE PRESENT FROM WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
THE SLIGHT RISK WILL BE FOCUSED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE GROUNDS WILL ALREADY LIKELY BE WET FROM
PRIOR RAINFALL TODAY AND FRIDAY. PREVAILING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGER SATURDAY AS WELL AREAWIDE DUE
TO A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LEE SIDE SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CO. BURSTS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH
SATURDAY CONVECTION WILL BE FAVORED AS A RESULT. AGAIN, AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TOWARD TX WILL SEE
DRIER CONDITIONS BUT WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING SEES FLOW ALOFT TURN WESTERLY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE GREAT BASIN AND OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY
MTS. THIS WILL STEADILY TURN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO MORE
OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS RIDING UP THE WEST SLOPES OF THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. AN OVERALL DOWNTICK IN RAINFALL
INTENSITIES WILL RESULT FROM THIS REDUCING THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL CONSIDERABLY OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL BE DOWNSLOPED YIELDING DRIER
CONDITIONS YET AGAIN.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS HOWEVER CONTINUING THE ACTIVE STREAK
GOING REGARDING TROPICAL ACTIVITY OVER THE EPAC. WHAT WOULD BE TC
RAYMOND (IF IT BECOMES NAMED) IS FAVORED TO TRACK NORTHWARD TOWARD
THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THIS TIMEFRAME
PRODUCING YET ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO AT
LEAST FAR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND INTO THE BOOTHEEL OF NM. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL BE FAVORED TO
SPREAD FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM LATER MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE
OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE FAVORED TO
REMAIN WITH YET ANOTHER JETMAX AND UPPER LOW OPENING TO A TROUGH
CROSSING THE WESTERN CONUS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT'S
FORECAST.
THE TAKEAWAY FROM ALL OF THIS IS THE ACTIVE WETTER WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD 7-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO RANGE FROM AT LEAST 0.10"
TO 0.25" FOR UNLUCKY DRIER SPOTS TO MORE GENERALLY 0.50" TO 1.00"
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. POCKETS OF 1.00" TO
2.00" WILL FAVOR SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE GILA NF, CHUSKA MTS,
AND OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS REACHING UP INTO THE CO SAN JUANS.
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 2+ INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY/TUESDAY. WHILE THIS PRESENTS A NOTABLE FLASH
FLOODING RISK ACROSS WESTERN NM, ESPECIALLY WHERE NORMALLY DRY
ARROYOS WILL SEE SUDDEN AND QUICK RISES AT TIMES; THIS WILL PRESENT
A MUCH NEEDED BENEFICIAL ROUND OF MOISTURE THAT SHOULD MAKE A NICE
DENT IN THE SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
RESULTING IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS. SOME OF WHICH ARE LOWING
TO MVFR WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF IFR EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FAVORING HIGHLAND AREAS ALONG MOUNTAIN
RANGES. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 120 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS NEAR RECORD
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE STATE. DAILY ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH EASTERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 76 59 74 57 / 40 60 40 70
DULCE........................... 72 46 70 47 / 50 60 40 60
CUBA............................ 71 49 71 52 / 30 30 20 40
GALLUP.......................... 73 52 74 52 / 50 40 30 60
EL MORRO........................ 68 51 71 52 / 30 20 30 50
GRANTS.......................... 71 50 73 52 / 30 20 30 40
QUEMADO......................... 71 50 74 52 / 20 10 20 30
MAGDALENA....................... 70 54 72 56 / 20 10 10 20
DATIL........................... 67 49 70 51 / 20 10 20 30
RESERVE......................... 76 49 78 51 / 20 10 20 30
GLENWOOD........................ 81 54 82 55 / 10 10 10 30
CHAMA........................... 68 45 65 45 / 40 50 40 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 69 53 69 55 / 20 20 20 20
PECOS........................... 70 49 70 51 / 30 20 10 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 71 49 70 50 / 30 20 20 20
RED RIVER....................... 62 41 62 43 / 40 10 20 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 67 34 67 37 / 30 20 20 10
TAOS............................ 73 47 72 48 / 20 20 10 20
MORA............................ 70 44 69 45 / 40 20 10 10
ESPANOLA........................ 76 53 77 54 / 20 20 10 20
SANTA FE........................ 70 54 71 55 / 30 20 10 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 72 53 73 53 / 30 20 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 74 60 76 62 / 20 20 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 76 58 79 60 / 20 10 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 78 57 80 59 / 20 10 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 77 59 78 60 / 20 20 10 20
BELEN........................... 78 56 80 57 / 10 10 5 10
BERNALILLO...................... 77 58 79 58 / 20 20 10 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 77 55 80 57 / 10 10 10 10
CORRALES........................ 77 58 79 59 / 20 20 10 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 77 56 80 57 / 10 10 10 10
PLACITAS........................ 72 57 75 58 / 20 20 10 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 76 58 78 59 / 20 20 10 20
SOCORRO......................... 79 59 81 60 / 10 10 5 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 69 52 71 53 / 20 20 10 10
TIJERAS......................... 70 54 72 55 / 20 20 10 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 71 50 72 50 / 20 20 10 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 73 49 74 47 / 20 10 10 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 68 49 70 50 / 20 10 5 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 71 50 73 52 / 20 10 5 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 71 49 73 51 / 10 5 5 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 75 54 76 55 / 10 5 5 5
RUIDOSO......................... 66 48 68 50 / 20 5 5 5
CAPULIN......................... 74 49 71 50 / 5 10 5 5
RATON........................... 76 48 75 49 / 10 10 5 10
SPRINGER........................ 78 49 77 51 / 10 10 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 71 49 70 50 / 30 20 10 10
CLAYTON......................... 80 56 79 58 / 5 0 5 5
ROY............................. 74 53 74 54 / 5 5 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 80 54 81 57 / 5 5 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 75 52 76 55 / 5 5 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 80 54 81 57 / 5 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 80 56 81 57 / 5 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 81 56 82 57 / 5 5 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 77 55 79 56 / 5 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 80 58 82 58 / 5 5 0 5
PICACHO......................... 75 53 77 52 / 10 5 5 5
ELK............................. 71 49 73 50 / 10 10 5 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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