028
FXUS65 KABQ 211109 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
509 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 507 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2025
- A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING,
BRINGING THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR A FEW SELECT CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS LAS VEGAS, CLINES CORNERS,
GLORIETA, AND ROY.
- A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL INTRODUCE LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF NEW MEXICO
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED CENTRAL TO
EASTERN LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2025
THE BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT CAN BE SEEN OVERTAKING THE
EASTERN HALF OF NM EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY
NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS ACCOMPANYING. A MODEST EAST WIND IN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL FIZZLE BEFORE DAWN,
AND MUCH MORE PLACID WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE WINDS VEER IN DIRECTION AND THE FLOW ALOFT SLACKENS FROM
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER IN THE
EAST, BUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL RUN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS
CHILLY, SO NO NEW FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY WITH ITS AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WHICH HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR DAYS, TO
FINALLY MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CA. THIS LOW WILL TAP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO ITS SOUTH, FEEDING IT ACROSS THE GULF OF
CA AND INTO WESTERN SONORA WITH A MUCH MORE SUBDUED AND LESS
IMPRESSIVE FETCH GOING NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND THAT. THIS WILL BRING
PWATS UP TO 0.5 TO 0.7 INCH OVER PORTIONS OF NM LATE WEDNESDAY,
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO FUEL SOME HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2025
SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SCANT AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MAKES ITS
WAY TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THERE LOOKS TO BE TWO DISTINCT AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION GETTING ESTABLISHED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW AMOUNTS ARE MODELED CLOSE TO THE CORE
OF THE LOW IN NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NM AND UP INTO CO,
AND SECONDLY AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF NM IS MODELED TO INITIATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE (PWATS OF 0.7 TO 0.9 INCH) WOULD BE CONGEALING. THERE
WERE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT INSTABILITY ON EARLIER MODEL RUNS, BUT
THE CONSENSUS NOW POINTS TO SUFFICIENT TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES
FOR CONVECTION ON THURSDAY, AND WITH A HEALTHY 40-50 KT OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR, ANY STORMS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TURN STRONG TO
SEVERE BEFORE MOVING INTO WEST TX THURSDAY EVENING. IT SHOULD ALSO
BE NOTED THAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP DIURNAL MIXING AND STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
(15-25 KT AT 700 MB).
THE LOW WOULD THEN CHANGE COURSE, A RECENT TREND FROM MODELS, WITH
THE FEATURE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT A SLUGGISH PACE. THIS WOULD
CARRY IT OVER NORTHEASTERN NM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FAVORED. BLENDED QPF FOR THIS WHOLE
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME IS QUITE UNDERWHELMING AND GENERALLY
LESS THAN 0.10", BUT A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
DROPPING NARROW FOOTPRINTS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS AS THEY RACE
NORTHEASTWARD (MOSTLY ON THURSDAY).
THE LOW WOULD MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN OK-TX ON
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING FILLING IN OVER NM. AFTER DIPPING
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK TO SEASONAL READINGS ON SATURDAY WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE
BREEZES PREVAIL. STRONG, PERTURBED FLOW OFF OF THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC WILL THEN USHER IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS SUNDAY, CREATING A TIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT THAT WILL INDUCE
STRONGER WINDS INTO NM. THIS BREEZY TO WINDY PATTERN LOOKS TO
PERSIST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS THE STIFF
FLOW TURNS INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY AND A DEEP LOW TAKES SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2025
A COLD FRONT HAS OVERTAKEN MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO, BUT WINDS
HAVE DECREASED IN SPEED EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE
BREEZES WILL THEN DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH WIND DIRECTION VEERING
MORE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY IN MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES GRADUALLY GIVING WAY
TO A FEW HIGH, FAIR WEATHER CIRRUS CLOUDS LATE TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 118 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2025
NO MAJOR OR WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM ON THURSDAY WITH HUMIDITY STAYING ELEVATED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT CRITICAL CONDITIONS FROM LOOMING. FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY LOW PASSAGE ARE STILL RATHER
LOW, BUT A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD OFFER SMALL AND NARROW
SWATHS OF WETTING RAINFALL, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
STATE ON THURSDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WHEN RH WILL BE
HOVERING BETWEEN 15-25% OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND THIS
COULD BE THE NEXT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ELEVATED TO
MARGINALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 67 39 72 47 / 0 0 0 10
DULCE........................... 67 28 71 36 / 0 0 0 20
CUBA............................ 66 38 71 43 / 0 0 0 20
GALLUP.......................... 70 36 73 42 / 0 0 0 10
EL MORRO........................ 70 41 71 43 / 0 0 10 20
GRANTS.......................... 73 37 74 42 / 0 0 10 20
QUEMADO......................... 74 41 74 43 / 0 0 10 10
MAGDALENA....................... 70 46 72 50 / 0 0 10 10
DATIL........................... 71 42 71 44 / 0 0 10 10
RESERVE......................... 79 42 78 43 / 0 0 10 10
GLENWOOD........................ 82 46 82 47 / 0 0 10 5
CHAMA........................... 62 32 66 36 / 0 0 0 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 42 68 46 / 0 0 0 10
PECOS........................... 64 41 69 44 / 0 0 0 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 64 37 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 60 28 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 62 25 64 32 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 65 31 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 65 37 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 70 37 74 43 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE........................ 64 44 68 47 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 66 39 70 45 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 70 49 74 53 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 72 45 75 50 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 73 43 77 50 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 71 46 74 50 / 0 0 0 10
BELEN........................... 73 39 76 47 / 0 0 0 10
BERNALILLO...................... 73 43 76 49 / 0 0 0 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 73 40 75 47 / 0 0 0 10
CORRALES........................ 73 44 77 50 / 0 0 0 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 73 41 76 47 / 0 0 0 10
PLACITAS........................ 68 45 72 49 / 0 0 0 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 72 44 75 50 / 0 0 0 10
SOCORRO......................... 76 47 78 51 / 0 0 5 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 65 41 69 45 / 0 0 0 10
TIJERAS......................... 69 44 73 47 / 0 0 0 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 69 37 74 43 / 0 0 0 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 69 33 74 41 / 0 0 0 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 64 39 69 43 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 69 41 72 45 / 0 0 0 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 70 41 72 45 / 0 0 0 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 73 47 76 53 / 0 0 0 10
RUIDOSO......................... 66 46 72 50 / 0 0 0 20
CAPULIN......................... 61 36 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 65 34 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 67 33 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 64 38 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 66 41 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 63 36 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 70 39 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 67 41 78 45 / 0 0 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 70 43 77 44 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 71 44 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 73 44 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 69 41 80 48 / 0 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 73 43 82 52 / 0 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 70 44 82 52 / 0 0 0 10
ELK............................. 70 43 82 50 / 0 0 0 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NMZ212-223-229-
231.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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